Author Topic: Cincinnati: Census Challenge(s)  (Read 21953 times)

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Offline kendall

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Cincinnati: Census Challenge(s)
« on: October 30, 2006, 05:20:45 AM »
I knew it wasn't as bad as the Census Bureau first estimated, but I had no idea it would be this good.  From the fastest loser to the slowest gainer.

City shrinking? Not really
Census agrees city didn't lose population
BY DAN KLEPAL AND GREGORY KORTE | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITERS

Forget everything you heard about the shrinking Cincinnati. Forget everything you heard about it losing population faster than any major U.S. city.  In a stunning reversal of previous estimates, the U.S. Census Bureau will post new estimates today that have the city gaining population this decade - by 27 residents.

The new population estimate for Cincinnati is 331,310, replacing the July estimate of 308,728. The revision is the result of a challenge by city officials who said the July numbers undercounted new housing units.  Cincinnati joins Columbus as the only big cities in Ohio estimated to have gained population between 2000 and 2005.  Cincinnati is now the 56th largest city in the country - up from 58th - and has jumped over Pittsburgh and Tampa.

Read full article here:
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20090216/NEWS01/902160326/1055/NEWS
« Last Edit: November 10, 2009, 10:19:27 AM by McCleveland »

Offline unusualfire

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2006, 06:08:58 AM »
Does this mean Hamilton county is not shrinking too? and does this mean the MSA and CSA gained 30k?
« Last Edit: October 30, 2006, 06:11:18 AM by unusualfire »

Offline cincyimages

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2006, 06:13:30 AM »
I hope this article doesn't get lost in this thread, it might deserve its own thread because this is such great news.  I logged into my computer this morning from Norfolk, Virginia and went to Cincinnati.com to check the morning news and saw the headline.  At first I thought I was dreaming, did the Enquirer actually post a positive article?

The article made me feel like Cincinnati was a convicted felon, wrongly imprisoned and then found not guilty.  While it is great news, it doesn't make up for the previous news that ripped Cincinnati apart and probably reversed the gain by instilling fear of the local residents to sell their house and move to the suburbs.  I don't think the Census bureau realizes how much damage they do to the perception of the city when the release flawed data that shows such a negative decline.

The reason I initially checked Cincinnati.com this morning was because I believe Morgan Quinto released their annual “Most Dangerous Cities” with St. Louis #1 again in crime.  I expected some negative headline about Cincinnati somewhere on that list.  Needless to say it was refreshing that the Enquirer decided to push a positive story about the city.

Offline Mr Sparkle

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2006, 06:32:15 AM »
yr in luck... 700wlw led the 7:30 am newz with the “Most Dangerous Cities”  just now

Offline cramer

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2006, 08:08:12 AM »
This certainly is excellent news. I'm writing a thank you note to Dev Saggar at the Dept of Community Development & Planning and copying his boss; he just did the city a great service and deserves some recognition.

dev.saggar at cincinnati-oh.gov and margaret.wuerstle at cincinnati-oh.gov if anyone would like to as well.

Offline UncleRando

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2006, 08:34:26 AM »
I just knew that those initial numbers were wrong!!!  Great news!!!

Online AmrapinVA

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2006, 09:35:16 AM »
Before I start a word to ColDayMan. Don't think this is a Cincinnati vs. Cleveland thing...because I've had the same debate with DC people when their numbers were revised upward.

The press really screws these stories up. I actually have a few friends that work for the US Census Bureau. They've told me that it dosen't mean a city with revised numbers "grew", it means that they have undercounted these cities for years. Cincy probably had a population closer to 350,000 at the turn of the millenia, not 330,000. The only reason they can't redo 2000 and decades earlier is because the manpower/money spent to figure out correct numbers isn't worth it, and cities could in turn go to Congress and demand "back payment" for Fed funds on projects.

When I them asked about DC numbers and the fact that it "grew" this decade, they told me with a good amount of certainty this new baseline would begin shrinking immediately and that the city still had lost population since 2000, even though technically it grew.

While it is certainly good news for the Queen City that the city is larger than previously thought...I would wait for 2010 before making a judgement on how much population was lost or gained this decade. But it will certainly leave Cincy out of the #1 ranking of population lost this decade.

Again just some food for thought, and again not a bash on Cincy. Just throwing in what little tidbits I know.

Offline LesterLyles

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2006, 09:46:57 AM »
This is great news and agree with Monte that despite being good news, it doesn't make up for all the negative press.  I wonder if this figure will put Cincy out of the top 20 crime cities since the rankings are calculated per capita.

From following this board and the news in general, it really does seem that Cincy is headed in the right direction and I'm looking forward to potentially moving there from my beloved NYC. Crimeseems to be down in areas like OTR and there is a lot of building going on, which is always good to see.

Online David

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2006, 09:47:34 AM »
You make a good point but when it comes to liquor licenses we need all of the population we can prove we have.
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Online AmrapinVA

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2006, 09:57:13 AM »
You make a good point but when it comes to liquor licenses we need all of the population we can prove we have.

LOL, I hear that.

DC's largest employer is the Federal Govt. followed by the liquor industry. But #2 is making a run at #1. ;)

Offline ColDayMan

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2006, 10:03:42 AM »
Before I start a word to ColDayMan. Don't think this is a Cincinnati vs. Cleveland thing...because I've had the same debate with DC people when their numbers were revised upward.

The press really screws these stories up. I actually have a few friends that work for the US Census Bureau. They've told me that it dosen't mean a city with revised numbers "grew", it means that they have undercounted these cities for years. Cincy probably had a population closer to 350,000 at the turn of the millenia, not 330,000. The only reason they can't redo 2000 and decades earlier is because the manpower/money spent to figure out correct numbers isn't worth it, and cities could in turn go to Congress and demand "back payment" for Fed funds on projects.

When I them asked about DC numbers and the fact that it "grew" this decade, they told me with a good amount of certainty this new baseline would begin shrinking immediately and that the city still had lost population since 2000, even though technically it grew.

While it is certainly good news for the Queen City that the city is larger than previously thought...I would wait for 2010 before making a judgement on how much population was lost or gained this decade. But it will certainly leave Cincy out of the #1 ranking of population lost this decade.

Again just some food for thought, and again not a bash on Cincy. Just throwing in what little tidbits I know.


What the heck does ColDayMan have to do with this?

ANYWHO, good job, Cincinnati.  I didn't think it was practical for it to lose that much population in such a short time span. 
I love it when people come into a message board and immediately begin to mix it up.  I mean, Jesus, at least say hello!  Do you walk into a room full of strangers, pick a random woman, and tell her she's fat? - buildingcincinnati

Online David

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2006, 10:47:30 AM »
You make a good point but when it comes to liquor licenses we need all of the population we can prove we have.

LOL, I hear that.

DC's largest employer is the Federal Govt. followed by the liquor industry. But #2 is making a run at #1. ;)

I wish all liquor licenses were made equal--those arab corner stores could be shut down so easily and we could EASSILLYY solve the liquor license problem--one I know of in OTR, the dumbass that runs it always has an open styrofoam cup full of irish rose on his counter... They sell crackpipes and half the merchandise they sell is stolen. Top it off with the fact that they have no problem selling alcohol and cigs to underage kids. These stores are perpetuating the decline in these communities and people don't even realize the major role they play.
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Online ink

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2006, 11:13:59 AM »
Wooohooo!

Online AmrapinVA

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2006, 01:16:44 PM »
You make a good point but when it comes to liquor licenses we need all of the population we can prove we have.

LOL, I hear that.

DC's largest employer is the Federal Govt. followed by the liquor industry. But #2 is making a run at #1. ;)

I wish all liquor licenses were made equal--those arab corner stores could be shut down so easily and we could EASSILLYY solve the liquor license problem--one I know of in OTR, the dumbass that runs it always has an open styrofoam cup full of irish rose on his counter... They sell crackpipes and half the merchandise they sell is stolen. Top it off with the fact that they have no problem selling alcohol and cigs to underage kids. These stores are perpetuating the decline in these communities and people don't even realize the major role they play.

Agreed. But you see the same crap in Cincy, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, DC, Philly, Brooklyn, Boston, Chicago, etc. It's easy money for the city where other economic development looks poor (in their opinion).

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2006, 01:45:38 PM »
>I know of in OTR, the dumbass that runs it always has an open styrofoam cup full of irish rose on his counter... They sell crackpipes and half the merchandise they sell is stolen. Top it off with the fact that they have no problem selling alcohol and cigs to underage kids. These stores are perpetuating the decline in these communities and people don't even realize the major role they play.

And you wonder why Cincinnati Police didn't want Hamilton County patroling OTR?  All over the country there are conflicts between city and county police because one or the other has control of the drug trade. 


Offline UncleRando

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2006, 01:49:02 PM »
>I know of in OTR, the dumbass that runs it always has an open styrofoam cup full of irish rose on his counter... They sell crackpipes and half the merchandise they sell is stolen. Top it off with the fact that they have no problem selling alcohol and cigs to underage kids. These stores are perpetuating the decline in these communities and people don't even realize the major role they play.

And you wonder why Cincinnati Police didn't want Hamilton County patroling OTR?  All over the country there are conflicts between city and county police because one or the other has control of the drug trade.

This sounds like SuperTroopers to me  :laugh:
« Last Edit: October 30, 2006, 01:50:22 PM by UncleRando »

Offline The_Cincinnati_Kid

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2006, 02:23:28 PM »
Great to see some new numbers!

Quote
This sounds like SuperTroopers to me

Great movie BTW, get going meow!
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Offline C-Dawg

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2006, 02:24:44 PM »
They've told me that it dosen't mean a city with revised numbers "grew", it means that they have undercounted these cities for years. Cincy probably had a population closer to 350,000 at the turn of the millenia, not 330,000. The only reason they can't redo 2000 and decades earlier is because the manpower/money spent to figure out correct numbers isn't worth it, and cities could in turn go to Congress and demand "back payment" for Fed funds on projects.

That's what I would assume. From what I gather, nearly every big city is undercounted to some extent. I think it's safe to assume that Ohio's other large cities probably experienced similar undercounts in 2000 (after all, the losses were quite drastic given the re-developments of the 1990's). Their actual numbers today are probably closer to what the census said they were in 2000. So, if they chose to fight the census bureau, they probably "grew" too. I wouldn't be so quick to ring the victory bells. This is basically getting back numbers that were there in the first place. It probably doesn't change the overall trend of population loss which has been going on for nearly 50 years.

I also think people over-estimate how big of a role population loss plays in the public's perception of a city. Sure, it's not a good thing, but I hardly think it's the doom and gloom newspapers usually make it out to be. Cities like Chicago, DC, Boston, Minneapolis, etc. still get their willy wet despite population loss.

"There are a lot of people that form their opinion about the entire city based purely on population. The thought is if it's decreasing there is something wrong, crime is out of control, taxes are too high, on and on and on.

Or people are having fewer babies than in the past, and there are far more singles. It's called birth control and the death of dating.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2006, 02:29:02 PM by C-Dawg Njaim »

Online David

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2006, 02:29:16 PM »
Unless you are highly educated in urban statistics related stuff, the thought of avg house size decreasing would probably never cross your mind.
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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2006, 03:15:34 PM »
Unless you are highly educated in urban statistics related stuff, the thought of avg house size decreasing would probably never cross your mind.

I totally diagree. I hear common folk discussing this constantly.

Offline UncleRando

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2006, 03:51:01 PM »
I totally diagree. I hear common folk discussing this constantly.

You must be kidding...or you just talk with the atypical person.  I know many of the people I know even disreguard the fact that average household size has much to do with population trends.  ie during all of the population loss articles written how many times did they mention that homes aren't sitting vacant, but rather only have 2 occupants where 5-6 previously resided.

This is a major issue with inner cities, especially midwest/east coast cities.  The decline has looked bad for these markets over the past ten years, but I would not expect this trend to continue since most of the houses have been converted over already...the initial population damage has been done, and now the housing market is going to begin to level out, and we will see some more accurate population trends/predictions over the next couple of census'.

Offline C-Dawg

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2006, 04:06:40 PM »
Unless you are highly educated in urban statistics related stuff, the thought of avg house size decreasing would probably never cross your mind.

It's been my experience that this thought rarely crosses a journalist's mind. A lot of them are total idiots...

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2006, 04:48:17 PM »
Well, I am more in touch with the conservative/religious community, who is greatly disturbed by the changes in family makeup, etc.,...but, no, I'm not kidding. I hear people talking about smaller households often, just not in the same context of population statistics.

Offline The_Cincinnati_Kid

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2006, 05:20:46 PM »
Quote
This is a major issue with inner cities, especially midwest/east coast cities.  The decline has looked bad for these markets over the past ten years, but I would not expect this trend to continue since most of the houses have been converted over already...the initial population damage has been done, and now the housing market is going to begin to level out, and we will see some more accurate population trends/predictions over the next couple of census'.

To expand further on this, I bet you it has been or is now affecting first and second ring suburbs to a great extent.
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Offline jamiec

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2006, 06:00:18 PM »
Unless you are highly educated in urban statistics related stuff, the thought of avg house size decreasing would probably never cross your mind.

It's been my experience that this thought rarely crosses a journalist's mind. A lot of them are total idiots...

Hey, I used to be a journalist!!!

Of course, if I wrote this story, I probably would make a mistake, too, especially if I weren't visiting this forum. I took a statistics class when I was in college, and the professor ripped into us journalism majors because of all the faulty studies journalists write about. That always stuck with me. I hardly pay attention to the bogus studies and "X may cause Y" stories. That's sad.

Also, to stay on topic a bit, I saw that Boston got its population bumped, too. That story pointed out something important, though. When the population of Boston "shrunk," people said it was because people were fleeing expensive housing prices. Reporters wrote stories as if this was a proven trend when it I guess it's not so proven!

Offline tcj1985

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2006, 06:01:36 PM »
Great news for Cincinnati!  Although I was in Barnes and Noble this past weekend looking at a Midwestern Travel Book; it actually showed Cincinnati's population as a couple thousand people LESS than Toledo.........

Who knows!  But I'd take the Census Bureau's info over a travel book's info anyway!

Anyway, congrats Cincinnati!

Now if only Cleveland could grow :)

Offline C-Dawg

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2006, 06:08:45 PM »
Hey, I used to be a journalist!!!

me too...

Well, I am more in touch with the conservative/religious community, who is greatly disturbed by the changes in family makeup, etc.,...but, no, I'm not kidding. I hear people talking about smaller households often, just not in the same context of population statistics.

It worries a lot of people. It's the main reason Ohio cities are still shrinking and/or stagnating. All you have to do is look at the foreign-born percentage of a city to know if it's growing or not (hence why Columbus is posting gains). People who have been in America a while are not having many babies, particularly white folks have shown the most drastic decline. Europe is in a worse situation than we are, because most European countries (except France in recent years) do not have many immigrants. America still lets in many immigrants, but if that stops, our nationwide population should begin receeding in due time.

Smaller households = population loss. It's pretty simple. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the number of housing units in our cities has held steady over the last decade. I think most if not all of our recent population loss can be attributed to shrinking household size.

When the population of Boston "shrunk," people said it was because people were fleeing expensive housing prices. Reporters wrote stories as if this was a proven trend when it I guess it's not so proven!

In Detroit, they'll say it's crime. In Cleveland, they'll say it's poverty. In Toledo, they'll say it's limited job prospects. In DC/Chicago/Boston, etc., they'll say it's expensive housing. All these cities have one thing in common- shrinking household size. That's the most basic cause of population loss.

I've said it before, but there's a good chance Ohio cities like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Toledo, etc. could add more households but still be losing population. Old West End Toledo, anyone? There are single gay men living in 7-bedroom mansions by themselves...
« Last Edit: October 30, 2006, 07:16:52 PM by C-Dawg Njaim »

Offline Cincy1

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2006, 06:16:46 PM »
This is good news - I wonder if every time the Enquirer prints an article on population trends it will mention that Cincinnati is one on only two cities in Ohio to gain population from 2000-2005.  I have no idea what the exact methods are, but they do mention missing new housing in the article. 

As a bonus the crime rate will also go down.  All in all this should be a perception changer at some level.
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Offline UncleRando

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2006, 07:09:31 PM »
^Most importantly it will help greatly in terms of federal funding (population is king), and as discussed earlier the liqour license issue that is also facing the city.

Offline C-Dawg

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2006, 07:17:45 PM »
^do we have a thread on the Cincinnati liquor license issue? I need to read up on it some more.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2006, 07:17:55 PM by C-Dawg Njaim »

Offline RiverViewer

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2006, 07:20:50 PM »
C-Dawg - the Fountain Square thread has the liquor license discussion, I believe.

Offline cincyimages

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2006, 07:21:07 PM »
Hey C-Dawg, is there ever a Cincinnati thread you post in where you don't comment on Toledo?  You are a broken record man.  Seriously, keep Toledo out of Cincinnati threads and stop trolling.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2006, 07:21:48 PM by montecarloss »

Offline Cincy1

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2006, 08:16:24 PM »
Good news all around, although I think there has to be some way to work around the liquor license issue with the "entertainment districts".  Also, it would be interesting to learn more about the other classifications of liquor licenses - I mean at a ratio of 2000:1, Norwood would have 11 of the highest level (whatever it was called) and we all know there is a bar on every corner.

This is probably another topic, but it would be interesting to do an analysis of cities that have not changed boundaries by annexing since 1950.  Even with the old number of 308K, Cincy was still 60% of its peak while many are less than half and some approaching a third.  I would think this could be applied even to the old boundaries of those that did annex.  Of course we did not hear about 50 years of history, only the last 5 when we did the worst.

^Most importantly it will help greatly in terms of federal funding (population is king), and as discussed earlier the liqour license issue that is also facing the city.
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Offline Alabama ExPat

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2006, 10:57:06 PM »
Census Bureau To Revise Cincinnati's Population Report
Sarah Christian & Candice Terrell 10/30/2006
 
City leaders have asked the Census Bureau for the revision because they knew projects like City West were bringing more people back into the city.  Leaders said new condominium projects and private home subdivisions have helped Cincinnati keep its population fairly stable and have actually attracted new residents.

This past summer, the Anderson Building on Culvert Street was converted into a residential complex, bringing another 77 housing units into the city.  Downtown Cincinnati, Incorporated representatives said more than 4500 people now live in downtown Cincinnati.  An additional 400 downtown housing units are either under construction or are in the planning stages.

Read full article here:
http://www.wcpo.com/news/2006/local/10/30/census.html
« Last Edit: September 13, 2009, 09:30:20 AM by UncleRando »

Offline Alabama ExPat

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Re: Cincinnati Census Challenge(s)
« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2006, 11:04:57 PM »
This past summer, the Anderson Building on Culvert Street was converted into a residential complex, bringing another 77 housing units into the city.

So they got the name of the building right (who knew that building even had a name), but they somehow missed the fact that there insn't actually any residential in there yet. They do need to do a better job of checking their facts. 

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