Author Topic: The Trump Presidency  (Read 270891 times)

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Offline Gramarye

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3815 on: February 17, 2017, 09:37:32 AM »
^ I agree with your comment but I cannot understand why congressional fiscal conservatives like Paul Ryan have yet to speak out against him.  I do follow many principled conservatives on Twitter that are going after Trump on many issues.  But I think Congressional Republicans need to grow a spine.

I think you write your comment before I edited to add my second paragraph.  I think Trump has signaled that he's largely going to give Paul Ryan what he wants on tax policy, since Trump personally doesn't care enough to take a strong stand on the issue.  Trump's signature issues all the way back to his announcement of his candidacy have been anti-globalism: trade, immigration, intervention.

Other issues become secondary.  Thus, for example, he doesn't actually care deeply about what Betsy DeVos does with the Department of Education.  If the Congressional Republicans wanted to eliminate it completely (and DeVos' job along with it), he probably would sign off on it; if they wanted to expand it for whatever reason, he probably would sign off on that, too.  Ditto tax policy.  As much as he claims to care about the economy, he thinks immigration and trade are bigger influences on that than tax policy.  I'm not saying he's right, I'm suggesting that he and his true-believer supporters believe this.  And in the world his blue-collar supporters inhabit, he and they might actually be right--immigration and trade have both largely enabled overall economic gains, but those gains have manifested in a mixed bag of results to the working class offset by unmistakable gains to the upper-middle-class and above.  Tax policy doesn't necessarily enter into that.

Offline Cleburger

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3816 on: February 17, 2017, 09:40:36 AM »
I'm Waiting for the fiscal conservatives to get upset about this tidbit:

Over eight years, Obama spent $87M on vacations.
In a month, Trump cost $40M between vacations and Trump Tower security. A MONTH and he's nearly half way to Obama's eight year total.


remember that a lot of this tax payer money is going right into the tax mooch's pocket.

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Offline Eighth and State

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3817 on: February 17, 2017, 09:44:38 AM »
Quote
Those people were a lot louder and more obstreperous...

I learned a new word today.  :-)
 
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 06:55:01 PM by Eighth and State »

Online down4cle

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3818 on: February 17, 2017, 09:45:01 AM »
^^^ It just seems that if Paul Ryan were the intellectual he pretends to be he would realize that his tax plan alone may work out fine but combined with isolationist policies is a recipe for disaster.  If I understand Trump's economic agenda, he is attempting to grow the economy using import replacement strategy.  Most economic data seem to show that building up export economy gives yo more bang for your buck.  Isolationist policies also go completely against mainstream Republic policy and even a good chunk of moderate Democratic fiscal policy.  We sure live in interesting times.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 09:49:11 AM by down4cle »

Offline Hts121

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3819 on: February 17, 2017, 10:04:11 AM »
Fiscal conservative is a bit of a misnomer.  The big numbers mean nothing as self-proclaimed fiscal conservatives have routinely elected administrations under which we have seen dramatic rises in the deficit, causing more debt to be incurred.  The rub is where/how the money is spent.  The people that like to call themselves fiscal conservatives don't really care that much about the big budget items - SS, Medicare, and Defense spending - which make up something close to 3/4 of the pie.  They care about the small ticket items like SNAP because they can't stand the thought of $36 per year of their tax money going to what they would call welfare queens. 

PTD seems to want to infuse a YUGE amount of spending into the military, already our biggest budget item.  He also wants to reduce taxes in a way that is not budget neutral, thus causing the deficit to rise again. 
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 10:16:40 AM by Hts121 »
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Offline Hts121

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3820 on: February 17, 2017, 10:18:02 AM »
AP is reporting that PTD is considering mobilizing 100,000 National Guard troops to round up immigrants
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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3821 on: February 17, 2017, 10:22:53 AM »
^ I had read this and I was under the impression that presidents have very limited authority over the national guard.  Gramarye seems to have a grasp of the legalities of government so perhaps he can chime in on this.


Edit:

I think I found my answer:

If the proposal is implemented, governors in the affected states would have final approval on whether troops under their control participate.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 10:25:21 AM by down4cle »

Offline Gramarye

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3822 on: February 17, 2017, 10:29:03 AM »
^^^ It just seems that if Paul Ryan were the intellectual he pretends to be he would realize that his tax plan alone may work out fine but combined with isolationist policies is a recipe for disaster.  If I understand Trump's economic agenda, he is attempting to grow the economy using import replacement strategy.  Most economic data seem to show that building up export economy gives yo more bang for your buck.  Isolationist policies also go completely against mainstream Republic policy and even a good chunk of moderate Democratic fiscal policy.  We sure live in interesting times.

An export economy certainly can give more bang for the buck, I'm sure, but I honestly don't know the economic data on how much, and whether the distribution of those gains will be favorable to blue-collar workers, especially if the most powerful export industries are generally considered white-collar industries (technology, services).  Trump clearly does see the factories built along the northern border of Mexico post-NAFTA as factories that were "stolen" from the US or at least surrendered by the US in a "bad deal."  In this, he actually has more allies than will speak out publicly among rank and file Democrats, and it is almost certainly why he eked out the Rust Belt (and why he got his behind handed to him in California, where the export industries are technology and entertainment and the immigrant presence sustains the state's largest domestic-market blue-collar industry, agriculture).  Trump actually does see a future in American exports.  It's clearly one reason he openly embraced a looser monetary policy than any of his rivals during the campaign, in a phone call with NYT reporters that actually really stands out in hindsight for how lucid it was (in the sense of understanding the arguments, even if he came down the opposite side of it of where I would).

Fiscal conservative is a bit of a misnomer.  The big numbers mean nothing as self-proclaimed fiscal conservatives have routinely elected administrations under which we have seen dramatic rises in the deficit, causing more debt to be incurred.  The rub is where/how the money is spent.  The people that like to call themselves fiscal conservatives don't really care that much about the big budget items - SS, Medicare, and Defense spending - which make up something close to 3/4 of the pie.  They care about the small ticket items like SNAP because they can't stand the thought of $36 per year of their tax money going to what they would call welfare queens. 

PTD seems to want to infuse a YUGE amount of spending into the military, already our biggest budget item.  He also wants to reduce taxes in a way that is not budget neutral, thus causing the deficit to rise again. 

Self-proclamation as a fiscal conservative means nothing, you mean.  Fiscal conservative has generally been a label embraced by supply-siders, who are actually anything but fiscal conservative and are simply the other side of the Keynesian coin (both sides happy to pump money into the economy by deficit spending, the only question being how to grow the deficit).  The consistent definition of fiscal conservative I use is support for balanced or surplus budgets (even if that means tax increases) combined with a strong dollar.

Offline Gramarye

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3823 on: February 17, 2017, 10:34:53 AM »
^ I had read this and I was under the impression that presidents have very limited authority over the national guard.  Gramarye seems to have a grasp of the legalities of government so perhaps he can chime in on this.


Edit:

I think I found my answer:

If the proposal is implemented, governors in the affected states would have final approval on whether troops under their control participate.

That is indeed the simple answer, as I understand it.

The one exception is that Congress (specifically Congress, not the president) has the ability to "provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union ..."  U.S. Const. art. I s. 8 cl. 15.  The "Militia" is generally understood to be the National Guard.  But obviously, Congress would also need to pay for that (anti-commandeering doctrine), and to put it mildly, I'm aware of neither authorization nor appropriation to that effect.  In fact, even when the National Guard has been placed at the disposal of the federal government in the past (most notably with respect to disaster relief), I think (but don't quote me on this) that it was generally done with the full blessing of the governors of those states.

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3824 on: February 17, 2017, 10:39:54 AM »
^ I'm thinking that this document is a bit of a trial balloon to gauge public reaction.  Whitehouse spokespeople are starting to claim that it is untrue. 

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3825 on: February 17, 2017, 10:42:34 AM »
It could also be finding out where the leaks are coming from.

Online down4cle

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3826 on: February 17, 2017, 10:43:09 AM »
^ also a possibility. 

Online down4cle

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3827 on: February 17, 2017, 10:47:20 AM »
It could also be an intentional leak of a fake document as a way to discredit the media.  It's a Soviet propaganda technique.

Offline E Rocc

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3828 on: February 17, 2017, 10:57:47 AM »
Quote
Those people were a lot louder and more obstreperous...

I learned a new work today.  :-)
 

It's a very useful word for a parent of a kindergartener.
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Offline 327

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3829 on: February 17, 2017, 12:26:43 PM »
^^^ It just seems that if Paul Ryan were the intellectual he pretends to be he would realize that his tax plan alone may work out fine but combined with isolationist policies is a recipe for disaster.  If I understand Trump's economic agenda, he is attempting to grow the economy using import replacement strategy.  Most economic data seem to show that building up export economy gives yo more bang for your buck.  Isolationist policies also go completely against mainstream Republic policy and even a good chunk of moderate Democratic fiscal policy.  We sure live in interesting times.

Problem is, every country wants to export as much as possible so it still comes down to currency and trade policy.  Other problem is, you can't really export much from a service economy.  And ours is still the primary world market for goods, so some degree of import replacement seems necessary.
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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3830 on: February 17, 2017, 12:29:01 PM »
^Is a strong dollar good?
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Offline jbcmh81

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3831 on: February 17, 2017, 12:48:29 PM »
I'm Waiting for the fiscal conservatives to get upset about this tidbit:

Over eight years, Obama spent $87M on vacations.
In a month, Trump cost $40M between vacations and Trump Tower security. A MONTH and he's nearly half way to Obama's eight year total.


remember that a lot of this tax payer money is going right into the tax mooch's pocket.

Fiscal conservatives have been justifiably concerned about Trump's policies from the outset.  I think you'll find a lot of fiscal conservatives on the side of E Rocc's "nose holders" (recognizing that a Democratic administration would almost certainly be worse overall, since any number in the budget in the millions is more symbolic than substantive--the billions and trillions are where the action is), but not full-throated loyalists.  Ever since Trump came out during the primary and said that social security and Medicare don't need to be reformed, he's made it pretty clear that he wasn't pitching for the support of fiscal conservatives.  If anything, he's pitching for the support of the budgetary illiterate, a far larger segment of the electorate.

Of course, the interesting thing on the tax side is that he actually offered words in support of progressive taxation even during the Republican primary, which is (to put it mildly) odd during the time when Republicans are trying to out-Republican one another.  But his written tax plan (which he's probably not even read) is as budget-busting as any of the primary candidates', and the real mover on Republican tax policy is likely to remain Paul Ryan simply because Trump doesn't seem to care enough.  If he came out in defense of progressive taxation again, it would be interesting to see where the chips would fall on both sides of the aisle.

Based on what are you saying that a Democratic administration would've been worse?  The last 2 Democrats in office were both much better on spending and debt than either of their respective preceding Republican administrations.  And it was repeatedly reported that the economic plan of Hillary would've added less debt than Trump's.  This idea that Republicans are automatically much more fiscally responsible hasn't been true in at least 30 years.  Probably not since at least Reagan.

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3832 on: February 17, 2017, 01:03:13 PM »
^^ service based economies can be export based.   If a call center in US is supporting global customers then it is service based.  Bringing outside money onto US is export. 

Offline 327

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3833 on: February 17, 2017, 01:06:09 PM »
^Is a strong dollar good?

No.  A strong RMB would be bad for China which is why they manipulate it downward.  And the Euro is killing Greece.  Greek currency should be able to devalue to the point that its goods become competitive with German exports.  But it can't, so Greece is stuck on an illusory equal footing and can only survive by borrowing from Germany.  Does that remind you of anything?

^^ service based economies can be export based.   If a call center in US is supporting global customers then it is service based.  Bringing outside money onto US is export. 

Call centers?  Americans aren't known for their foreign language skills.  Yes, that needs to improve.  But not so we can all work at call centers.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 01:20:10 PM by 327 »
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Online down4cle

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3834 on: February 17, 2017, 01:26:36 PM »
^ Call Center was just an example.  A poor one probably but pointing out that exporting is just manufactured goods.

a strong dollar is neither good or bad.  The answer is: it depends.

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3835 on: February 17, 2017, 01:31:03 PM »
Depends on what?  Our industrial base is shattered.  That factors heavily in favor of a weaker dollar.  A strong dollar is good for buying foreign oil but I'm not sure that should be our priority going forward.
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Online down4cle

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3836 on: February 17, 2017, 01:36:23 PM »
It is not really that simple.  A strong dollar and weak dollar both have advantages and disadvantages.

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3837 on: February 17, 2017, 01:56:16 PM »
this is why we need charter schools :-(

Staten Island Father Furious Over Homework Assignment Slamming Trump

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/02/16/trump-homework-assignment/
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 01:56:28 PM by eastvillagedon »

Offline Gramarye

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3838 on: February 17, 2017, 02:01:44 PM »
Depends on what?  Our industrial base is shattered.  That factors heavily in favor of a weaker dollar.  A strong dollar is good for buying foreign oil but I'm not sure that should be our priority going forward.

A weak dollar is better for exports.  And since it seems like everyone wants to be an exporter, everyone races to have the weakest currency.

A strong dollar is better for more than just imports, though.  A strong dollar is better for economywide financing terms, for real purchasing power of wages against commodity-based goods including raw and finished agricultural products and textiles (or "food" and "clothing," as the unwashed masses sometimes call them), and for allowing American businesses to be acquirers rather than targets on the global M&A market (which does have impacts beyond mere prestige).  Because wages tend to be "sticky," a strengthening dollar actually generally correlates positively with purchasing power, whereas a weakening dollar correlates negatively with it (in a very real sense, a stronger dollar has the same effect as a raise to everyone working at any company that manages to stay solvent in a more disciplined monetary environment).

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3839 on: February 17, 2017, 02:02:23 PM »
... and at the fancy Dalton School, where the 1% sends their kids. The crackup continues...

Liberal mom clique forces school to cancel skating party at Trump rink

http://nypost.com/2017/02/17/prep-school-cancels-party-at-trump-wollman-rink-over-parents-protests/

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3840 on: February 17, 2017, 02:04:17 PM »
^oh the horror....

Offline Hts121

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3841 on: February 17, 2017, 02:11:33 PM »
this is why we need charter schools :-(

Staten Island Father Furious Over Homework Assignment Slamming Trump

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/02/16/trump-homework-assignment/

Ridiculous homework assignment and the teacher should be reprimanded for it.  That said, let me ask a question (to which I don't expect to receive an answer, or at least not a coherent one).  How would charter schools prevent this?  Quite the opposite, I suspect, because charter schools are more free to be as political as they want.  They don't have the same checks and balances.  Minimal oversight.  You see an article like this and your instinct is to say we need charter schools.  I'm trying to find any logic in that.

... and at the fancy Dalton School, where the 1% sends their kids. The crackup continues...

Liberal mom clique forces school to cancel skating party at Trump rink

http://nypost.com/2017/02/17/prep-school-cancels-party-at-trump-wollman-rink-over-parents-protests/

Sounds like private market forces at work.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 02:13:02 PM by Hts121 »
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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3842 on: February 17, 2017, 02:21:26 PM »
i was making a joke about the strong dollar. i understand it's a complicated global market. some people don't understand that.
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Online down4cle

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3843 on: February 17, 2017, 02:22:35 PM »
^ i got the reference but I always enjoy a monetary policy sidebar.

Offline Ram23

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3844 on: February 17, 2017, 02:35:33 PM »
It could also be finding out where the leaks are coming from.

It could also be an intentional leak of a fake document as a way to discredit the media.  It's a Soviet propaganda technique.

No matter what the motivation, the AP got caught red handed spreading fake news. Any future leaks will justifiably be viewed with even more suspicion than before.

Over the course of the election, none of the DNC/Podesta/Clinton leaks were ever fakes. They were all verified before Wikileaks would publish them. Despite that, the media still ignored most. We're 4 weeks into a Trump presidency and the Democrats' spy is already screwing up and/or getting tricked into believing fakes, and the media is rushing to publish them without any verification. It's quite telling.

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3845 on: February 17, 2017, 02:38:20 PM »
^ They did not spread fake news.   You need to learn how journalism works.

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3846 on: February 17, 2017, 02:41:23 PM »
^^^^^private market forces? Since the skating party was already scheduled I'm guessing the parents (or the school) had already put up the money to reserve the rink, so why not at least let the students who want to go have some fun? This party was also probably scheduled some time in advance, so I doubt if the school/parents got a refund (not that most of them need the money. The tuition at top-notch New York prep schools is over 40K a year!), but if they weren't using the facility, why not let a group of disadvantaged students use it, as their gift? Oh that's right, it's associated with Trump. No can do. Political correctness is a mental disorder.

as for charter schools, maybe you're right that a teacher could still give such a politically biased assignment, but since there seems to be more accountability to parents (to say nothing of not being beholden to left-leaning teachers' unions), just as part of their overall philosophy (as far as I know), I think it's less likely to happen.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 02:42:39 PM by eastvillagedon »

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3847 on: February 17, 2017, 02:42:50 PM »
since there seems to be more accountability to parents (to say nothing of not being beholden to left-leaning teachers' unions), just as part of their overall philosophy (as far as I know), I think it's less likely to happen.

what world do you live in?
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Online down4cle

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3848 on: February 17, 2017, 02:43:17 PM »
^^ perhaps you need a refresher on who public schools answer to before ranting and raving.  Besides these are just stupid stories about a particular school that mean nothing in context.  But that is your posting M.O.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 02:43:34 PM by down4cle »

Offline Hts121

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #3849 on: February 17, 2017, 02:43:37 PM »
The DHS memo was very real.  It was not a fake document.  The administration might not have ever seriously considered the option, but it was proposed by someone within Team Trump.  And let's not pretend for a second that RAM would not be applauding the administration if in fact that was their plan. 

Regardless, no it absolutely does not insulate the administration in any way.  By Ram's own logic, any of Trump's claims should be justifiably viewed with great suspicion because he was caught red-handed lying to the American public yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that, and..... well, I guess Ram may have a point now that I put it like that.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 02:44:39 PM by Hts121 »
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