Author Topic: The Democratic Party  (Read 45207 times)

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Offline Ram23

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #750 on: June 11, 2018, 11:50:37 AM »
How does the trend not look good for Dems? Even if they don't win back Congress, they're going to gain seats... and its not like this current Congress is passing bills at some crazy rate.

How does the trend look good for Dems? I'm talking about trends here, not blips and bumps - the trend since the beginning of 2018 is clearly downhill for the Dems, after a long, slow, steady climb throughout most of 2017. The "trend" shows about a 4 point swing so far, we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out over the coming months, and then we'll see if it actually translate to votes.


Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #751 on: June 11, 2018, 11:57:20 AM »
How does the trend not look good for Dems? Even if they don't win back Congress, they're going to gain seats... and its not like this current Congress is passing bills at some crazy rate.

How does the trend look good for Dems? I'm talking about trends here, not blips and bumps - the trend since the beginning of 2018 is clearly downhill for the Dems, after a long, slow, steady climb throughout most of 2017. The "trend" shows about a 4 point swing so far, we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out over the coming months, and then we'll see if it actually translate to votes.

Republicans have never broken the 41% barrier.  Good luck with that.
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Offline YABO713

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #752 on: June 11, 2018, 12:03:33 PM »
How does the trend not look good for Dems? Even if they don't win back Congress, they're going to gain seats... and its not like this current Congress is passing bills at some crazy rate.

How does the trend look good for Dems? I'm talking about trends here, not blips and bumps - the trend since the beginning of 2018 is clearly downhill for the Dems, after a long, slow, steady climb throughout most of 2017. The "trend" shows about a 4 point swing so far, we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out over the coming months, and then we'll see if it actually translate to votes.



I think the current trend is that there's more resistance to the GOP than we've seen since Nixon. Voter turnout rate in blue primaries is insane - and that's not even generals yet.

As much as it pains me to say this, because I so badly wish it were the opposite - but when more voters show up, it is generally worse for the Conservative.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #753 on: June 13, 2018, 09:36:01 AM »
Quote
Remarkable: after tonight, Dems have nominated women in 73/150 (49%) of '18 House races (excluding Dem incumbents). On GOP side, just 18/112 (16%).

Quote
UPDATE: so far in 2018 Dem House primaries featuring at least one woman, one man & no incumbent, women have been the top vote-getters in 66/93 cases (71%). On GOP side, just 9/26 (35%).

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1006741573672034306
« Last Edit: June 13, 2018, 09:39:04 AM by DarkandStormy »
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #754 on: June 13, 2018, 09:38:47 AM »
https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17457024/record-number-of-women-win-virginia-primary

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Women snagged wins in almost every one of Virginia’s most contested House races on Tuesday, capturing victories in key swing districts including the 10th. These wins mark the continuation of a broader trend that’s been observed in the primary season thus far, which has featured a record number of women candidates vying for the Democratic nominations in the House and Senate.

Women once again were the story last night.
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #755 on: June 13, 2018, 09:43:34 AM »
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #756 on: June 13, 2018, 10:03:50 AM »
https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-flip-another-wisconsin-seat-making-43-since-trump-inauguration

Dems flipped their 43rd state legislative seat since Trump inauguration.
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Offline freefourur

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #757 on: June 13, 2018, 10:06:18 AM »
https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-flip-another-wisconsin-seat-making-43-since-trump-inauguration

Dems flipped their 43rd state legislative seat since Trump inauguration.

Scott Walker had to be forced into having a special election.  One party seems hell bent on moving away from democratic principles.

Offline mu2010

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #758 on: June 13, 2018, 11:17:32 AM »
I am curious as to how we will see state legislative elections play out here. If Dems can flip seats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, there's no reason they can't here. Candidate quality is a big part of it, I don't really know how nominations went.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #759 on: June 13, 2018, 11:24:48 AM »
I am curious as to how we will see state legislative elections play out here. If Dems can flip seats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, there's no reason they can't here. Candidate quality is a big part of it, I don't really know how nominations went.

What's amazing is that Ohio, PA, and WI are three of the most gerrymandered states in the country.
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Offline freefourur

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #760 on: June 13, 2018, 11:25:37 AM »
I am curious as to how we will see state legislative elections play out here. If Dems can flip seats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, there's no reason they can't here. Candidate quality is a big part of it, I don't really know how nominations went.

What's amazing is that Ohio, PA, and WI are three of the most gerrymandered states in the country.
Also NC and MD

Offline jonoh81

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #761 on: June 13, 2018, 02:24:31 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-score-special-election-upset-024628191.html

Democrats won in a Wisconisin district that Trump won by double-digits. 

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #762 on: June 19, 2018, 05:20:43 PM »
The DCCC released some internal polls today:







In seats where the incumbent is running the shift to the Dems is 18.08, if the seat is open it is 14.86 (from Clinton's number).

These are "cherry on top" type of seats.  These aren't even among the 25 most highly-targeted seats, I believe.
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #763 on: June 20, 2018, 03:14:11 PM »
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/393281-democrat-leads-in-deep-red-wva-house-district

Quote
emocratic state Sen. Richard Ojeda is leading the race for West Virginia's open 3rd Congressional District, a poll released Thursday shows, despite the fact that President Trump won the district by more than 50 points in 2016.

Monmouth University polled the district using two distinct likely voter projections—one assuming a typical midterm electorate turns out in November, and another predicting a Democratic surge in opposition to Trump.

In the typical midterm model, Ojeda leads state Del. Carol Miller (R) by 6 points, 48 percent to 39 percent. His lead grows to 9 points when screening for a Democratic surge.

Holy ****.  A Trump +50 district now has a Dem leading by 6-9 points for the House of Representatives.
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Offline mu2010

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #764 on: June 20, 2018, 03:19:32 PM »
Wondering why Dems don't seem to have a shot at Tiberi's seat. But I guess it's because it's full of Romney voters.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #765 on: June 20, 2018, 03:26:51 PM »
Wondering why Dems don't seem to have a shot at Tiberi's seat. But I guess it's because it's full of Romney voters.

Balderson has better name recognition, probably.  Most of the polls show him up 46-40 or so.  That's a HUGE dropoff from Tiberi who usually got 65+% of the vote.
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Offline KJP

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #766 on: June 22, 2018, 09:37:08 PM »
Top conservative writer: Vote for Democrats in midterms https://t.co/093mao53fY
"Treat this (November 2018) election as if it's the last election in which you can fully exercise your democratic rights. Because it just might be." -- Margy Waller.

Offline KJP

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #767 on: June 24, 2018, 03:54:58 PM »
Richard W. Painter
@RWPUSA

Winning strategy in November:
Ditch the partisan rhetoric; reject PAC money.
Convince liberal and conservative voters that: Trump is authoritarian and must go; single payer health insurance is in their economic interest; we need sensible gun laws and we must protect the planet.
"Treat this (November 2018) election as if it's the last election in which you can fully exercise your democratic rights. Because it just might be." -- Margy Waller.

Offline 327

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #768 on: June 24, 2018, 04:10:40 PM »
Stop trying to convince conservative voters of anything.  That effort only bears fruit for the other side.  We're better off focusing on turnout among our own base.

Some of these suggestions are a little contradictory, e.g. "Ditch partisan rhetoric"... "Trump is authoritarian and must go"

Offline jonoh81

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #769 on: June 24, 2018, 06:33:01 PM »
Stop trying to convince conservative voters of anything.  That effort only bears fruit for the other side.  We're better off focusing on turnout among our own base.

Some of these suggestions are a little contradictory, e.g. "Ditch partisan rhetoric"... "Trump is authoritarian and must go"

Yeah... focusing on Trump at this point is wasted effort.  You're either in his cult or you hate him.  Nothing the Democrats do will change that, so it's best that they focus on the issues only.  It's proven effective in other races.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #770 on: June 27, 2018, 10:13:17 AM »
https://pix11.com/2018/06/26/queens-bronx-rep-crowley-loses-to-28-year-old-sanders-backer/

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old political newcomer, unseats Rep. Crowley

Crowley was the #4 ranking Democrat in the House.
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #771 on: June 27, 2018, 10:18:47 AM »
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/394276-polls-dems-lead-in-three-key-senate-races

Dems lead Senate races in AZ, FL, and OH in latest polls.
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Offline Gramarye

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #772 on: June 27, 2018, 10:42:03 AM »
More on a 28-year-old knocking off the House Democrat that would have been high on the Speaker list if Pelosi had to step aside:

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/06/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-joe-crowley-primary-new-york/

A Progressive Insurgent Just Pulled Off the Biggest Democratic Primary Upset in Years

The Democratic Party just had its Eric Cantor moment. In Tuesday’s New York Democratic primary, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old former Bernie Sanders organizer, knocked off incumbent Rep. Joe Crowley—the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. Crowley was considered by many to be second in line to be Speaker of the House if Democrats capture the chamber in the November elections.

==========================

Also, I will give serious credit to the viral campaign ad embedded in that Mother Jones article (though not too "viral," considering under 200k views, but that's a lot for a primary race in a safe seat, I think).  Ironically, and I'm sure she'd vehemently disagree with me saying this, she has a bit of Trump's social genius for activating tribal loyalties and anti-establishment resentment.  "It's time for one of us."

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #773 on: June 27, 2018, 11:08:21 AM »
^She got outspent 18-to-1 by the #4 Democrat in the House who hadn't faced a primary challenger in 14 years.
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Offline Gramarye

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #774 on: June 27, 2018, 11:44:57 AM »
Moving this discussion from the Republican Party thread to here:

The heir-apparent to the speakership was just dethroned by a 28-year-old Latina socialist.

I'm not sure what your point is here. The fact that Jim Crowley lost to a radical socialist who wants to abolish our borders is good news. Democrats are destroying themselves from within. Their leadership is all pushing 80 years old and they're electing loonies to replace what semblance of leadership they had on deck. Crazy radicals like this girl will only further encourage moderates in flyover country to vote for Republicans.

I'm obviously not aligned with Ocasio-Cortez politically, but it's a little incongruous to suggest that the Democrats' leadership is old and greying and dying, and then say that it's a bad thing that the party--in its primaries, not just in backroom deals--is jettisoning at least some of that leadership in favor of younger, potential future leaders.  Of course Ocasio-Cortez is going to be just a young firebrand now, at age 28.  But she's in a safe blue seat and this seat was obviously a platform for one high-ranking leader of the party already.  The question shouldn't be whether the Democrats are losing experienced leadership now, but whether they just drafted a high draft pick that will pay dividends in 5-10 (or 15) years.

I obviously don't know Ocasio-Cortez from Adam and I have no idea about her background.  Maybe there are videos of her acting very differently than she does in her obviously-scripted campaign videos, acting instead like the hooligans heckling and hounding Nielsen and Sanders out of restaurants.  But it's possible that she's cut of similar community-organizer cloth to Obama, which obviously worked, as a strategic matter, regardless of what you think of his politics (or hers).

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #775 on: June 27, 2018, 12:24:20 PM »
https://twitter.com/jdavidgoodman/status/1011795408383856645

In his concession, Crowley played and sang "Born to Run" for Ocasio-Cortez.  What a classy concession.
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Offline surfohio

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #776 on: June 27, 2018, 01:08:38 PM »
This is the easiest way to get money out of politics; show the big "investors" they're making a bad investment.

Offline Gramarye

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #777 on: June 27, 2018, 01:10:33 PM »
This is the easiest way to get money out of politics; show the big "investors" they're making a bad investment.

That won't get money out of politics, though.  It will simply change the investments.  I'll bet that Ocasio-Cortez gets plenty of "investment" as an incumbent the next time around.

Offline surfohio

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #778 on: June 27, 2018, 01:55:58 PM »
This is the easiest way to get money out of politics; show the big "investors" they're making a bad investment.

That won't get money out of politics, though.  It will simply change the investments.  I'll bet that Ocasio-Cortez gets plenty of "investment" as an incumbent the next time around.

You cynic!

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #779 on: June 27, 2018, 02:12:34 PM »
This is the easiest way to get money out of politics; show the big "investors" they're making a bad investment.

That won't get money out of politics, though.  It will simply change the investments.  I'll bet that Ocasio-Cortez gets plenty of "investment" as an incumbent the next time around.

I bet she won't take them.  $5 on it?
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