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Author Topic: The Democratic Party  (Read 25517 times)

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Offline Ram23

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #750 on: June 11, 2018, 10:01:25 AM »
How does the trend not look good for Dems? Even if they don't win back Congress, they're going to gain seats... and its not like this current Congress is passing bills at some crazy rate.

How does the trend look good for Dems? I'm talking about trends here, not blips and bumps - the trend since the beginning of 2018 is clearly downhill for the Dems, after a long, slow, steady climb throughout most of 2017. The "trend" shows about a 4 point swing so far, we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out over the coming months, and then we'll see if it actually translate to votes.


Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #751 on: June 11, 2018, 10:08:08 AM »
How does the trend not look good for Dems? Even if they don't win back Congress, they're going to gain seats... and its not like this current Congress is passing bills at some crazy rate.

How does the trend look good for Dems? I'm talking about trends here, not blips and bumps - the trend since the beginning of 2018 is clearly downhill for the Dems, after a long, slow, steady climb throughout most of 2017. The "trend" shows about a 4 point swing so far, we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out over the coming months, and then we'll see if it actually translate to votes.

Republicans have never broken the 41% barrier.  Good luck with that.

Offline YABO713

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #752 on: June 11, 2018, 10:14:21 AM »
How does the trend not look good for Dems? Even if they don't win back Congress, they're going to gain seats... and its not like this current Congress is passing bills at some crazy rate.

How does the trend look good for Dems? I'm talking about trends here, not blips and bumps - the trend since the beginning of 2018 is clearly downhill for the Dems, after a long, slow, steady climb throughout most of 2017. The "trend" shows about a 4 point swing so far, we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out over the coming months, and then we'll see if it actually translate to votes.



I think the current trend is that there's more resistance to the GOP than we've seen since Nixon. Voter turnout rate in blue primaries is insane - and that's not even generals yet.

As much as it pains me to say this, because I so badly wish it were the opposite - but when more voters show up, it is generally worse for the Conservative.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #753 on: June 13, 2018, 07:46:49 AM »
Quote
Remarkable: after tonight, Dems have nominated women in 73/150 (49%) of '18 House races (excluding Dem incumbents). On GOP side, just 18/112 (16%).

Quote
UPDATE: so far in 2018 Dem House primaries featuring at least one woman, one man & no incumbent, women have been the top vote-getters in 66/93 cases (71%). On GOP side, just 9/26 (35%).

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1006741573672034306
« Last Edit: June 13, 2018, 07:49:52 AM by DarkandStormy »

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #754 on: June 13, 2018, 07:49:35 AM »
https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17457024/record-number-of-women-win-virginia-primary

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Women snagged wins in almost every one of Virginia’s most contested House races on Tuesday, capturing victories in key swing districts including the 10th. These wins mark the continuation of a broader trend that’s been observed in the primary season thus far, which has featured a record number of women candidates vying for the Democratic nominations in the House and Senate.

Women once again were the story last night.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #755 on: June 13, 2018, 07:54:22 AM »

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #756 on: June 13, 2018, 08:14:38 AM »
https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-flip-another-wisconsin-seat-making-43-since-trump-inauguration

Dems flipped their 43rd state legislative seat since Trump inauguration.

Offline freefourur

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #757 on: June 13, 2018, 08:17:06 AM »
https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-flip-another-wisconsin-seat-making-43-since-trump-inauguration

Dems flipped their 43rd state legislative seat since Trump inauguration.

Scott Walker had to be forced into having a special election.  One party seems hell bent on moving away from democratic principles.

Offline mu2010

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #758 on: June 13, 2018, 09:28:20 AM »
I am curious as to how we will see state legislative elections play out here. If Dems can flip seats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, there's no reason they can't here. Candidate quality is a big part of it, I don't really know how nominations went.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #759 on: June 13, 2018, 09:35:36 AM »
I am curious as to how we will see state legislative elections play out here. If Dems can flip seats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, there's no reason they can't here. Candidate quality is a big part of it, I don't really know how nominations went.

What's amazing is that Ohio, PA, and WI are three of the most gerrymandered states in the country.

Offline freefourur

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #760 on: June 13, 2018, 09:36:25 AM »
I am curious as to how we will see state legislative elections play out here. If Dems can flip seats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, there's no reason they can't here. Candidate quality is a big part of it, I don't really know how nominations went.

What's amazing is that Ohio, PA, and WI are three of the most gerrymandered states in the country.
Also NC and MD

Offline jonoh81

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #761 on: June 13, 2018, 12:35:19 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-score-special-election-upset-024628191.html

Democrats won in a Wisconisin district that Trump won by double-digits. 

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #762 on: June 19, 2018, 03:31:31 PM »
The DCCC released some internal polls today:







In seats where the incumbent is running the shift to the Dems is 18.08, if the seat is open it is 14.86 (from Clinton's number).

These are "cherry on top" type of seats.  These aren't even among the 25 most highly-targeted seats, I believe.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #763 on: June 20, 2018, 01:24:59 PM »
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/393281-democrat-leads-in-deep-red-wva-house-district

Quote
emocratic state Sen. Richard Ojeda is leading the race for West Virginia's open 3rd Congressional District, a poll released Thursday shows, despite the fact that President Trump won the district by more than 50 points in 2016.

Monmouth University polled the district using two distinct likely voter projections—one assuming a typical midterm electorate turns out in November, and another predicting a Democratic surge in opposition to Trump.

In the typical midterm model, Ojeda leads state Del. Carol Miller (R) by 6 points, 48 percent to 39 percent. His lead grows to 9 points when screening for a Democratic surge.

Holy ****.  A Trump +50 district now has a Dem leading by 6-9 points for the House of Representatives.

Offline mu2010

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #764 on: June 20, 2018, 01:30:20 PM »
Wondering why Dems don't seem to have a shot at Tiberi's seat. But I guess it's because it's full of Romney voters.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #765 on: June 20, 2018, 01:37:39 PM »
Wondering why Dems don't seem to have a shot at Tiberi's seat. But I guess it's because it's full of Romney voters.

Balderson has better name recognition, probably.  Most of the polls show him up 46-40 or so.  That's a HUGE dropoff from Tiberi who usually got 65+% of the vote.

Offline KJP

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Re: The Democratic Party
« Reply #766 on: June 22, 2018, 07:47:56 PM »
Top conservative writer: Vote for Democrats in midterms https://t.co/093mao53fY
"Many Americans are willing to die for their country. But pay taxes for it? No way." -- Me.