Author Topic: Housing market and trends  (Read 9989 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Gramarye

  • Global Moderator
  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 6646
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #90 on: April 05, 2018, 05:46:49 PM »
I wouldn't say Ohio is completely immune to this.  At the very least, a friend of mine put in an at-asking-price offer on a house in West Akron (not exactly Vegas) less than a week ago and was outbid.  I don't think the house was on the market long at all.  That's at least a subtle signal of some bubbliness in our housing markets here, too, though of course not like Vegas.

Online Dougal

  • Great American Tower 665'
  • ***
  • Posts: 700
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #91 on: April 06, 2018, 10:11:17 AM »
Yeah, it's hot if you want to buy a house in the usual suspects.  Not so hot in Middletown or Mansfield. 

There's good availability and weakness in the upper brackets around Washington DC; the thinking is the tax package has hastened plans of retired folks to move to a friendlier and maybe warmer tax climate. The RE people are hoping this is just a one-time bump in supply.
There's nothing wrong with optimism, as long as you don't get your hopes up.

Offline viscomi

  • Kettering Tower 408'
  • **
  • Posts: 351
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #92 on: April 06, 2018, 10:30:08 AM »
I found this article interesting. The speculation made by the author seems pretty logical to me, especially the part about ex-urban eventually moving back into a more rual/agricultural role.

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2018/4/4/the-big-theory-on-american-urban-development

Offline aderwent

  • Metropolitan Tower 224'
  • *
  • Posts: 189
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #93 on: April 06, 2018, 11:30:04 AM »
Some good conversation over in this thread at SkyscraperPage:

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=232731

Offline KJP

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 51171
  • Rebuilding the cities that built America.
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #94 on: June 13, 2018, 05:30:57 PM »
Coastal unaffordablility may push people into affordable Midwest markets. Interesting tweets from @mjarboe today. Here are a few....


Homebuilding still below where it needs to be, @Redfin’s Marr says, and new houses are pricier due to labor shortages, high costs of construction materials, regulatory factors, etc. Starter market is really left out in the cold. #NAREE18

Amid affordability crunch, migration can provide opportunities for people to attain homeownership, build wealth, @Redfin’s Marr says. He’s studied online search patterns to look at where people want to move/are moving. Households increasingly leaving priciest metros. #NAREE18

We're starting to see signs that recent growth in rental demand actually is ebbing, says Chris Herbert of @Harvard_JCHS during update on the state of the nation's housing market. #NAREE18

Recent rental-market easing is largely at the high end. @Harvard_JCHS's Herbert describes current multifamily market conditions as more of a plateau, rather than a falloff. Demand slowing against backdrop of pretty big pipeline of construction, though. #NAREE18

House prices outpacing incomes by a lot. Makes bigger hurdles not only of monthly payments but also of down payments, Herbert says. In #CLE area, price-to-income ratio is two to three times (and has been for decades), versus five times or more in hot, coastal markets. #NAREE18

The homebuilding recovery has been fueled by larger, costlier homes. Not smaller, more affordable homes. And we're not building condos or manufactured housing, Herbert points out. #NAREE18

National housing inventory hasn't been this tight since 1982, Herbert says. In some markets, stats from various real estate data companies show only two months' worth of supply. #NAREE18

Nationally, nearly half of renter households and a quarter of owner householders are cost-burdened - paying too much of their income for housing, Herbert says. #NAREE18 Affordability is BOTH an income problem and a housing-cost problem, he notes.

Some local context: In #CLE, 35.2% of renter households and 10.9% of owner households are considered "severely cost-burdened," based on number-crunching of 2016 data by @EnterpriseNow. In Cuyahoga County, 29.2% of renter HHs and 7.9% of owner HHs fall into that bucket. #NAREE18
"Treat this (November 2018) election as if it's the last election in which you can fully exercise your democratic rights. Because it just might be." -- Margy Waller.

Offline Gramarye

  • Global Moderator
  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 6646
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #95 on: June 13, 2018, 06:06:58 PM »
The homebuilding recovery has been fueled by larger, costlier homes. Not smaller, more affordable homes. And we're not building condos or manufactured housing, Herbert points out. #NAREE18

I've been wondering if this were just a local thing or nationwide.  In the greater Akron area, people are still building surprising numbers of large, exurban homes.  The side of Medina County closer to Akron (so eastern Medina County) has surprising numbers of new builds still.  I just bought some used toys for my kids from a guy in a 6500sf almost-new house with a 5-car garage out by Medina Line Road, in a development that still has a huge number of "ready-to-build" lots.  (In the city, we'd call them "vacant lots.")  Somehow, people are able to find the budgets for surprising numbers of $1M+ houses in Summit and Medina Counties.  I didn't think we had that many executive-level earners here.  I'm kind of wondering what the odds are of a bubble popping that would let me pick up one of those gorgeous places for far less than its construction cost, but of course, that would mean moving way out into the sprawlburbs where I don't actually want to live.

Offline jmecklenborg

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 15426
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #96 on: June 13, 2018, 06:19:19 PM »
^Yeah I think what's amazing about the infill in Cincinnati is the sheer number of $500-700k homes.  These are tear downs or wedged on precarious hillside lots.  I couldn't tell you what is going on out in the corn fields but houses that just plain make you chuckle are going up all over the east side of the city.

Meanwhile, there aren't any sub-$100k 3-bedroom move-in ready homes left anywhere in the area except for C-D quality neighborhoods.  The prevailing price for a 1930s Cape Cod with a new kitchen in a B-quality neighborhood is $150k.  I'm talking about Deer Park, Silverton, etc.  The sheer volume of flipping in Norwood is moving that are from C to B and in ten years it could be the equal of Oakley.       


Offline 327

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 7302
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #97 on: June 13, 2018, 06:50:49 PM »
Everyone I know living in those eastern Medina developments is a retiree with a sweet pension.  So, not sustainable.  It's the last vestige of the old economy.

Offline KJP

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 51171
  • Rebuilding the cities that built America.
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #98 on: August 04, 2018, 03:01:04 PM »
Note the east side/west side differences in Cuyahoga County. As I noted in my blog posting, the east side of Cleveland is a mess except for University Circle and its immediate surrounding areas....

ICYMI: Findings from @CuyahogaCounty's six-year real estate reappraisal are out, and home values are up 10.8% on average. Details on residential and #CRE valuations here: https://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2018/07/cuyahoga_county_home_values_ri_1.html … via @CourtneyAstolfi

A larger version of this graphic (and others, including the strong growth in commercial values countywide) is available at the link above
"Treat this (November 2018) election as if it's the last election in which you can fully exercise your democratic rights. Because it just might be." -- Margy Waller.

Offline PoshSteve

  • Great American Tower 665'
  • ***
  • Posts: 780
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #99 on: August 05, 2018, 05:27:13 PM »
I would love to see the neighborhood breakdown map of Cleveland. They're out there, but its my understanding they were only given to the relevant people in their cities. If anyone on here in Cleveland has access to it, please share! I'm interested to see how much of the 3% increase on the east side is from Downtown/Midtown/UC, and what kind of decline was seen in the other neighborhoods.

I think this reappraisal is pretty accurate. In South Euclid at least, the numbers they are giving to us corresponds to the work we've done and the results we've seen. Of course, many people are disappointed/upset with the increases. If you ask me though, the valuations they had previously were artificially low. Many of the previously granted revisions where values were lowered to ridiculous levels were corrected. There was no reason a fully rehabbed bungalow where the owner was getting $1300 a month in rent should have been valued at $5000. Yet we had many examples of that, because basically every appeal made was grated. I believe now the County has wised up to it and we won't be seeing that as much now.

Offline KJP

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 51171
  • Rebuilding the cities that built America.
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #100 on: August 07, 2018, 12:52:20 PM »
Just to add to the posts starting here in the Cleveland population thread....
https://www.urbanohio.com/forum/index.php/topic,5363.msg930093.html#msg930093

Some anecdotal info, but I'm noticing a lot more $200,000+ houses selling in Cleveland too. I check property transactions each month to look for any anomalies and that's one that has stuck out at me in recent months. I used to see the usual multi-million-dollar sales of downtown buildings and industrial properties, then it would drop off to $100,000-$150,000 houses and lower. Now there's up to a page (with 100 transactions per page) of houses selling for $200,000+ per month.
"Treat this (November 2018) election as if it's the last election in which you can fully exercise your democratic rights. Because it just might be." -- Margy Waller.

Offline StapHanger

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 8721
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #101 on: August 07, 2018, 01:46:17 PM »
^Back in early-mid 1990s, I remember pouring over the house sales listed in real estate section of the PD and counting on one hand the number breaking $100K. Amazing how most of the city has totally crumbled since then, but also how many more sales there are on the high end in the handful of neighborhoods doing really well.

Online Cleburger

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 4667
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #102 on: August 07, 2018, 02:33:25 PM »
Just to add to the posts starting here in the Cleveland population thread....
https://www.urbanohio.com/forum/index.php/topic,5363.msg930093.html#msg930093

Some anecdotal info, but I'm noticing a lot more $200,000+ houses selling in Cleveland too. I check property transactions each month to look for any anomalies and that's one that has stuck out at me in recent months. I used to see the usual multi-million-dollar sales of downtown buildings and industrial properties, then it would drop off to $100,000-$150,000 houses and lower. Now there's up to a page (with 100 transactions per page) of houses selling for $200,000+ per month.

The country tax revaluations going on right now are causing quite a stir....

Offline KJP

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 51171
  • Rebuilding the cities that built America.
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #103 on: August 07, 2018, 02:59:15 PM »

The country tax revaluations going on right now are causing quite a stir....

I'm sure the school districts are loving it. And hopefully saving it for a rainy day.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2018, 03:02:23 PM by KJP »
"Treat this (November 2018) election as if it's the last election in which you can fully exercise your democratic rights. Because it just might be." -- Margy Waller.

Offline tklg

  • Dirt Lot 0'
  • *
  • Posts: 59
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #104 on: August 07, 2018, 03:14:09 PM »
It's a classic move by the county - I actually challenged and won a hearing about the value increase back in 2010.  I assume most don't think to challenge and pay the increase.  Bam!  Money in the pocket.

Offline StapHanger

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 8721
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #105 on: August 07, 2018, 03:28:20 PM »

The country tax revaluations going on right now are causing quite a stir....

I'm sure the school districts are loving it. And hopefully saving it for a rainy day.

Don't think it affects the amount of taxes the schools collect by very much, if it at all, due to HB 920: https://fiscalofficer.cuyahogacounty.us/en-us/house-bill-920.aspx

Offline KJP

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 51171
  • Rebuilding the cities that built America.
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #106 on: August 07, 2018, 03:46:58 PM »

The country tax revaluations going on right now are causing quite a stir....

I'm sure the school districts are loving it. And hopefully saving it for a rainy day.

Don't think it affects the amount of taxes the schools collect by very much, if it at all, due to HB 920: https://fiscalofficer.cuyahogacounty.us/en-us/house-bill-920.aspx

It does affect their charter/inside millage (up to 10 mills) however, as well as any new or replacement levies they get passed.
"Treat this (November 2018) election as if it's the last election in which you can fully exercise your democratic rights. Because it just might be." -- Margy Waller.

Offline PoshSteve

  • Great American Tower 665'
  • ***
  • Posts: 780
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #107 on: August 07, 2018, 08:58:02 PM »
^ Taking all of that into account, school districts will be looking at an average increase of 8%

Offline StapHanger

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 8721
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #108 on: August 07, 2018, 10:16:48 PM »
^That's pretty big. Do school districts have charter millage like municipalities or is that average driven by all the levies passed since 2013, which might not be subject to HB 920 (per the link I posted above)?

Offline KJP

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 51171
  • Rebuilding the cities that built America.
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #109 on: August 07, 2018, 10:46:13 PM »
No it's by statute. Up to 10 mills is charter millage and thus not subject to HB920. Some school districts have 40, 50, 60 mills on the books, but the older millage is so old and has been so eroded by  HB920, that it's effective millage is nearly worthless.  But what some school districts will do is to replace those old levies with new ones and the language that appears on the ballot makes it sound like the replacement is a renewal. But it gets replaced at the originally stated millage and therefore is able to pull in the same revenue as a new levy.
"Treat this (November 2018) election as if it's the last election in which you can fully exercise your democratic rights. Because it just might be." -- Margy Waller.

Offline KJP

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 51171
  • Rebuilding the cities that built America.
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #110 on: August 14, 2018, 11:20:26 AM »
2 months? Where? I tried to get a showing of a Lakewood house on Monday that had been on the market for two days. It had already sold.

July home sales up 8.2% across Northeast Ohio. Prices still climbing. Average days on market down to roughly 2 months, based on MLS data.
http://realestate.cleveland.com/realestate-news/2018/08/july_home_sales_up_82_percent.html
"Treat this (November 2018) election as if it's the last election in which you can fully exercise your democratic rights. Because it just might be." -- Margy Waller.

Offline bjk

  • Kettering Tower 408'
  • **
  • Posts: 325
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #111 on: August 14, 2018, 03:23:50 PM »
2 months? Where? I tried to get a showing of a Lakewood house on Monday that had been on the market for two days. It had already sold.

July home sales up 8.2% across Northeast Ohio. Prices still climbing. Average days on market down to roughly 2 months, based on MLS data.
http://realestate.cleveland.com/realestate-news/2018/08/july_home_sales_up_82_percent.html

Does "on the market" mean from when it was listed to when an offer was accepted, or from when it was listed till closing?

Offline Brutus_buckeye

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 3291
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #112 on: August 14, 2018, 04:52:21 PM »
"On the market" from when it was listed until closing date. Offers fall though all the time and it is still for sale until it is closed.

Offline freefourur

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 4854
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #113 on: August 14, 2018, 04:53:08 PM »
"On the market" from when it was listed until closing date. Offers fall though all the time and it is still for sale until it is closed.

but aren't houses not technically on the market when there is an accepted offer?

Offline jmicha

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 4049
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #114 on: August 14, 2018, 05:04:03 PM »
Yes and no. You can have it "on the market" with an accepted offer to get backup offers, continue generating interest, etc. Obviously the definition of what "on the market" means is modified since they can't accept another offer once they already have, but in a general sense I think it's fair to say that it's "on the market" up until the moment the closing is finished.

Offline freefourur

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 4854
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #115 on: August 14, 2018, 05:05:37 PM »
^ I was under the impression that you can't accept other offers when you are under contract.

Offline PoshSteve

  • Great American Tower 665'
  • ***
  • Posts: 780
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #116 on: August 14, 2018, 06:19:50 PM »
2 months? Where? I tried to get a showing of a Lakewood house on Monday that had been on the market for two days. It had already sold.

July home sales up 8.2% across Northeast Ohio. Prices still climbing. Average days on market down to roughly 2 months, based on MLS data.
http://realestate.cleveland.com/realestate-news/2018/08/july_home_sales_up_82_percent.html

Even in South Euclid, which people may not think of as being a "hot market" (especially compared to Lakewood) I've seen houses under contract the next day after being listed. Many people have been scrambling to complete their repairs at the last minute, because they end up finding a buyer quicker than they expected. We all know its much better to sell the house "violation free/POS compliant". I would guess that the number of days on the market is much higher in the collar counties, and especially in the rural counties though.

Offline jmicha

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 4049
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #117 on: August 14, 2018, 08:59:18 PM »
^ I was under the impression that you can't accept other offers when you are under contract.

You can't. You can, however, accept "backup offers" which aren't actually binding, but in hot markets they're fairly common. People will put in an offer on a place that already has an accepted offer so that if that accepted offer falls through they can already have an offer in on the property.

Offline surfohio

  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • *****
  • Posts: 7718
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #118 on: August 14, 2018, 09:05:52 PM »
^ I was under the impression that you can't accept other offers when you are under contract.

You can't. You can, however, accept "backup offers" which aren't actually binding, but in hot markets they're fairly common. People will put in an offer on a place that already has an accepted offer so that if that accepted offer falls through they can already have an offer in on the property.

My friend put in a backup offer on a 4-unit in Lakewood. He went +15k over the asking price and all cash. I wouldn't be surprised if the seller sabotaged his own electrical panel to get out of the contract. But my friends offer did in fact end up getting accepted.

Offline GCrites80s

  • Premium Member
  • Jeddah Tower 3,281'
  • ***
  • Posts: 9128
  • 1492 or 4,192?
Re: Housing market and trends
« Reply #119 on: August 14, 2018, 09:25:14 PM »
^"Oh my, how did all this WATER get in here? There must be an unseen leak somewhere!"