Author Topic: Electric Cars  (Read 13381 times)

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Online Clefan98

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #300 on: July 10, 2018, 03:54:06 PM »
Tesla is going big in China

 For the first time, China will let a foreign automaker open up shop without a Chinese company as its partner.

Tesla has plans to open a plant in Shanghai that will one day crank out 500,000 vehicles a year — enough to rival the company's main plant in Fremont, California.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/news/companies/tesla-china-factory/index.html

Online taestell

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #301 on: July 10, 2018, 03:59:50 PM »
The big risk of buying a used electric car is that we don't really know how well the batteries are going to hold up over time. And depending on how fast battery technology advances, it's going to be extremely expensive to get a replacement battery pack. If/when I get a Tesla I'm almost certainly going to lease a new one to avoid those problems.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 05:45:14 PM by taestell »

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #302 on: July 10, 2018, 04:43:30 PM »
And depending on how fast battery technology advances, it's going to be extremely expensive to get a replacement battery pack.


Most if not all of the hybrids do not let you operate 100% via the engine after the battery dies.  However, I work with a guy with an old Prius who had his battery replaced for around $2,000.  Obviously, a Prius battery is much smaller than one for a full electric, but the expense might not be as high as people fear. 

That said, manufacture and disposal of the batteries is not a particularly planet-friendly activity, and since the rest of an electric car is the same as a traditional car (lots of steel, rubber, and plastic), the thought that all-electric cars are green is a bit of a fallacy.  Similarly, windmills and solar panels require a lot of energy to manufacture and dispose of. 

Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #303 on: July 10, 2018, 05:03:36 PM »
For my LEAF, Nissan's official replacement cost is $5500 plus installation.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/04/nissan-leaf-replacement-battery-will-cost-5499/.

Real issue with that is that the KBB value of the whole car is under $9000 at this point.

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #304 on: July 10, 2018, 05:40:16 PM »
^I assume that the Bolt/Model 3's battery will be more expensive to replace because they are much larger.  I think. 

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #305 on: July 11, 2018, 04:50:02 PM »
For-profit Duke Energy offering $3,000 incentive for the purchase of Nissan Leafs:
https://www.duke-energy.com/_/media/pdfs/energy-education/pev-nisson-leaf-discount-flyer-customer.pdf?utm_source=questline.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=multi_leaf-discount_2018-jul_537&utm_content=multi_ref_ql_2018-jul

Crazy.  So just like how oil companies promoted gasoline-powered cars, we might now see the for-profit electric utilities incentivize electric cars because they know that you're going to be buying almost all of that power from them. 

Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #306 on: July 11, 2018, 05:09:00 PM »
For my LEAF, Nissan's official replacement cost is $5500 plus installation.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/04/nissan-leaf-replacement-battery-will-cost-5499/.

Real issue with that is that the KBB value of the whole car is under $9000 at this point.


Does the price of the batteries change with the dips and spikes in the lithium market?

Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #307 on: July 11, 2018, 05:12:53 PM »
I'm not sure.  That's the only real data point I have ... and I don't actually intend to replace my LEAF battery because I'll have my Model 3 by the end of the year, so this isn't something I've spent much more than 5 minutes of Googling looking at, and I doubt I'll ever spend much more than that, at least with respect to that particular battery.

Offline Ram23

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #308 on: July 11, 2018, 07:48:26 PM »
For-profit Duke Energy offering $3,000 incentive for the purchase of Nissan Leafs:
https://www.duke-energy.com/_/media/pdfs/energy-education/pev-nisson-leaf-discount-flyer-customer.pdf?utm_source=questline.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=multi_leaf-discount_2018-jul_537&utm_content=multi_ref_ql_2018-jul

Crazy.  So just like how oil companies promoted gasoline-powered cars, we might now see the for-profit electric utilities incentivize electric cars because they know that you're going to be buying almost all of that power from them. 

Duke's rebates on light bulbs actually have the opposite effect. I just got 20 or so LED bulbs for 4 cents a piece. They use a fraction of the electricity the CFL and handful of old incandescent bulbs I'm replacing used. There's got to be some reason they do this but I can't figure it out:

http://www.energyfederation.org/dukeenergy_oh_res/july-promo.html

Online freefourur

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #309 on: July 11, 2018, 07:55:23 PM »
I got a rebate ftom first energy when I bought a new high efficiency washing machine.   I can't figure out their motive either.

Offline BigDipper 80

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #310 on: July 11, 2018, 10:20:20 PM »
I'm sure electric companies appreciate anything that will help take some of the strain off of the nation's already-overtaxed electric grids. A brown- or blackout is probably worse to their bottom line than losing a few cents from people using more efficient lightbulbs.
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Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #311 on: July 11, 2018, 10:39:45 PM »
Electric cars sure as hell won't help that!

Offline E Rocc

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #312 on: July 11, 2018, 10:45:32 PM »
I got a rebate ftom first energy when I bought a new high efficiency washing machine.   I can't figure out their motive either.

They'd like to even out the peaks as much as possible.

Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #313 on: July 11, 2018, 10:47:52 PM »
Actually, I have it on good authority from people I trust within FirstEnergy that they've done load projections involving a widespread shift to electric cars and it actually won't put anywhere near as much additional strain on the grid as people may be assuming.  (I phrased it as asking whether they consider EVs a major future source of new revenue, of course.)  I'm surprised to hear about that electric company subsidy for new electric cars, honestly.

Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #314 on: July 11, 2018, 11:05:29 PM »
Hmmm, at $2 for a full charge (which might not be needed every day) that might double MY electric bill, but a lot of people with large/old houses are paying $250 a month or more.

Meanwhile, this month one of my stores' electric bill will be $700 while the other's will be $350.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2018, 11:08:17 PM by GCrites80s »

Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #315 on: July 11, 2018, 11:22:56 PM »
$2 for a full charge is a bit on the low end.  In Ohio, residential customers are usually paying around $0.14/kWh.  So about $3.36 for my 24 kWh LEAF or $14 for a top-of-the-line Tesla Model S with a 100 kWh battery.  But of course, those can go even longer between charges, so what really matters is total miles driven and miles per kWh.

I think the Jevons Paradox might come to the aid of the morose electric company here, though.  The fact that EVs are so much cheaper to drive on a per-mile basis makes some trips that you might have declined due to sticker shock suddenly look much more doable, once EVs are actually capable of trips of that range (my LEAF obviously isn't because it can barely handle any trip that leaves Summit County).  But obviously they have more serious market researchers looking at this than me with my opinions and an Internet connection.

Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #316 on: July 11, 2018, 11:36:18 PM »
Yay, more induced demand.

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #317 on: July 12, 2018, 12:52:59 AM »
I'm sure electric companies appreciate anything that will help take some of the strain off of the nation's already-overtaxed electric grids. A brown- or blackout is probably worse to their bottom line than losing a few cents from people using more efficient lightbulbs.

I know a guy who works in electrical grid security for the U.S. Government (and who hacks foreign grids) who said the stuff about the "grid" is all rubbish.  It's the for-profit utilities wanting public dollars to upgrade their systems instead of them paying for it themselves. 

But the kicker is that the antiquated characteristics of power transmission across the United States and Canada is actually our best defense against foreign attacks.  A "modernized" system would use just one system for the entire country, and so there would be just one target to attack.  As-is, there are endless local details to power transmission that makes it impossible for a foreign entity to orchestrate a widespread blackout. 

So it's kind of like how our local voting variations make it impossible for a foreign agent to substantially affect a national election.  Not only does each state have its own way of doing things, each county often uses different voting machines.  Different manufacturers, different model years, different paper backups.   

Offline JYP

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #318 on: July 12, 2018, 08:51:14 AM »
I'm sure electric companies appreciate anything that will help take some of the strain off of the nation's already-overtaxed electric grids. A brown- or blackout is probably worse to their bottom line than losing a few cents from people using more efficient lightbulbs.

I know a guy who works in electrical grid security for the U.S. Government (and who hacks foreign grids) who said the stuff about the "grid" is all rubbish.  It's the for-profit utilities wanting public dollars to upgrade their systems instead of them paying for it themselves. 

But the kicker is that the antiquated characteristics of power transmission across the United States and Canada is actually our best defense against foreign attacks.  A "modernized" system would use just one system for the entire country, and so there would be just one target to attack.  As-is, there are endless local details to power transmission that makes it impossible for a foreign entity to orchestrate a widespread blackout. 

So it's kind of like how our local voting variations make it impossible for a foreign agent to substantially affect a national election.  Not only does each state have its own way of doing things, each county often uses different voting machines.  Different manufacturers, different model years, different paper backups.   

Yeah, but the computers that store the voter registrations are all running Windows 95!
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Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #319 on: July 12, 2018, 10:26:45 AM »
Computers?  You mean repurposed card catalogs from public libraries, right?

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #320 on: July 18, 2018, 07:00:02 PM »
Phase-out of federal tax breaks imminent for Tesla:
https://apnews.com/181514df80ab40418efe7405e9d2ebb4/Tesla-Model-3-buyers-lose-patience-and-maybe-tax-credits

So the Bolt, etc., are about to become much more affordable than the imaginary "$35,000" Model 3. 

This is looking more and more like a pump-and-dump scam.  All of the Model 3 reservations boosted Tesla's stock price, along with the promise of the $35,000 base model, but it looks like we're literally never going to get the $35,000 car.  We're likely to see zero under $40,000, or possibly $45,000. 

Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #321 on: July 18, 2018, 07:07:47 PM »
Musk is like terrible boyfriends whose mouths just go and go then only deliver 5% of what their mouths said as actual actions.

Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #322 on: July 19, 2018, 09:27:31 AM »
Are you implying that Tesla investors were unaware of the imminent phase-out of the tax credits?  I've been an investor since 2014 and I've been aware of the phase-out rule since then, including in 2016 when I made my Model 3 reservation.

Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #323 on: July 19, 2018, 10:45:36 AM »
I'd say a lot of non-investors and perspective customers were.

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #324 on: July 19, 2018, 11:07:42 AM »
I'd say a lot of non-investors and perspective customers were.

And prospective customers. 

Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #325 on: July 19, 2018, 11:09:09 AM »
I knew I screwed that up

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #326 on: July 19, 2018, 11:11:10 AM »
Are you implying that Tesla investors were unaware of the imminent phase-out of the tax credits? 

Either they were unaware or they were so caught up in the hype that they didn't care. 

I read a book on the American car industry around 2012 that explained in some detail how there is no money to be made in mid-sized and compact cars.  And so when Tesla announced their plan to make mid-sized cars, I knew they were doomed. 

Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #327 on: July 19, 2018, 02:39:30 PM »
Ford has announced its plan to completely stop making midsize and compact cars.  Its stock price didn't budge.

I'd be interested in reading your book, in particular whether it actually addressed the economics of manufacturing electric midsized cars at scale.  Electric cars really are simpler than ICE cars.  The initial investment is the hardest because there was no infrastructure to support that manufacture (in particular, manufacturing batteries at that scale, which is why Tesla had to build its own massive battery factory).

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #328 on: July 19, 2018, 02:56:12 PM »
I don't recall a mention of Tesla in the book.  At the time they were only producing the roadster, I think.  This was the book:
https://www.amazon.com/Overhaul-Insiders-Administrations-Emergency-Industry/dp/0547577427

In other news, I read today that no $35,000 Model 3's are expected to roll off the line until very late 2019 and more likely the fat middle of 2020.  By then it'll be 4 year-old technology and more EV's with better specs will have entered the market. 


Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #329 on: July 19, 2018, 03:56:39 PM »
In other news, I read today that no $35,000 Model 3's are expected to roll off the line until very late 2019 and more likely the fat middle of 2020.  By then it'll be 4 year-old technology and more EV's with better specs will have entered the market.

This falls again into "I'll believe it when I see it" territory.  The Great Awakening of the more powerful, well-capitalized OEMs that will suddenly jump in with their vastly larger resources and crush Tesla at its own game has been predicted for years now, before the Model S even hit the roads, let alone the Model 3.  It hasn't happened.  In fact, the larger, more entrenched OEMs have generally made at best tentative steps in Tesla's direction and in fact many, like Ford, have affirmatively stepped in the other direction--going the same way your book suggested and giving up on sedans altogether, opting for basically nothing but gas-guzzling crossovers and SUVs and trucks.  We'll see if that's the right move in the long run.