Author Topic: Electric Cars  (Read 10506 times)

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Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #210 on: February 09, 2018, 01:57:54 PM »
Interestingly, they're making one specific kind of the high-end Model 3 right now: the long-range battery one with 2WD.  The AWD ones will actually be among the last produced in the queue.  So it will go 2WD long range, then 2WD standard range, then AWD (both battery sizes).

Offline taestell

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #211 on: February 09, 2018, 01:59:21 PM »
They're prioritizing the high end models because those are the ones that they make a profit on. There is some speculation that they will lose money on each base level Model 3 they sell.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #212 on: February 09, 2018, 02:04:45 PM »
My friend was in fairly early for the Model 3 deposits, but upon realizing that the model he wants (AWD) would be last and thus put the EV credit in jeopardy he changed course (I believe) and is considering a Model S instead.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #213 on: February 09, 2018, 02:12:50 PM »
Quote
@elonmusk
Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec

1:12 AM - Jul 3, 2017

LOL

Quote
As of February 2017, Tesla planned to ramp up production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week in 4Q2017 and reach 10,000 vehicles per week in 2018. However, Tesla missed their Q4 production target by far, as only 2,425 vehicles were produced during the entire 3-month period. 5 months before, Musk claimed on Twitter that Tesla would be able to produce 20,000 Model 3 per month by December of the same year. Tesla's actual production numbers were therefore 93% lower than his prediction.

Quote
By early November 2017, Musk postponed the target date for manufacturing 5,000 of the vehicles per week from December 2017 to March 2018.[118] When asked when the company would reach a production level of 10,000 units per week, he declined to speculate. An analyst with Cowan and Company, a public-relations firm, commented that "Elon Musk needs to stop over-promising and under-delivering". In early January 2018, the target date for producing 5,000 units per week was extended to the end of June, in spite of significant expenditures on robots. Later the company explained that it will continue to target weekly Model 3 production rates of 2,500 by the end of the March 2018 and 5,000 by the end of June

Online GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #214 on: February 09, 2018, 02:43:24 PM »
My friend was in fairly early for the Model 3 deposits, but upon realizing that the model he wants (AWD) would be last and thus put the EV credit in jeopardy he changed course (I believe) and is considering a Model S instead.

A guy at the Gigafactory has to carve each center differential out of a solid hunk of metal first.

Offline E Rocc

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #215 on: February 09, 2018, 06:29:13 PM »

Also, Musk is emphatically not a showman.  He stutters and he's actually a bit awkward in front of a crowd.

In some of his one-on-one interviews / TED style talks he says it's because his brain is just moving so fast and he's trying to figure out how to form his thoughts into coherent sentences.

Dude is a genius.  But I still have my doubts given the Model 3 struggles that Tesla can mass produce ANYTHING right now.

Very common on the autism spectrum.   Verbal communication can be a challenge.

But so is generating out of the box ideas out of the blue.   He just put his car in the second most iconic picture of the space era.  Yeah, he's a showman.


Online GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #216 on: February 09, 2018, 09:25:27 PM »
Oh there's definitely going to be lots of Tesla collectors in 40 years. I'm not talking just about cars, but memorabilia. When there's this kind of hype about something the hype sticks around in people's brains then they get nostalgic for it later in life. Much in the same way you see people filling their garages with old gas station pieces from the '60s, muscle car advertising, car dealership signs and whatnot in addition to having the old car parked in the garage.

Oddly, we 3rd Gen (82-92) Camaro/Firebird guys are more obsessed with the era of when our cars were hated during say the late '90s. Putting on mullet wigs, throwing cans of Old Milwaukee in the back, tattered Whitesnake shirts with beer belly imprints, questionable modifications such as gigantic rear tires and other trailer park tomfoolery.

Online jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #217 on: February 27, 2018, 01:20:13 PM »
Saw my first Model 3 this morning...only saw it for a second so I didn't get a very good look at it. 

Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #218 on: February 27, 2018, 01:45:04 PM »
Lithium Miners' Pain Is Tesla's Gain As Prices Seen Plunging This Much

https://www.investors.com/news/sqm-albemarle-lithium-stocks-dive-tesla-rises/

========================================

Granted, commodity prices are volatile things.  But it's good to know that the trendline of lithium prices isn't just an exponential upward growth curve and that, at least so far, there are no imminent threats of shortages even as both electric cars and utility-scale battery backup installations are becoming more mainstream.  This bodes well not just for the medium-term affordability of electric cars (since the battery is a very significant portion of the cost of the entire car), but also likely for the expansion of adoption (since companies aren't going to invest in more factories like Tesla's huge battery factory in Nevada, the Gigafactory, if raw materials are likely to be unavailable or prohibitively expensive).

Online GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #219 on: February 27, 2018, 02:48:29 PM »
Lithium prices probably shot up then crashed because of Musk's mouth.


Offline Gramarye

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #220 on: February 27, 2018, 02:49:29 PM »
If they're that responsive to one guy, even a CEO of a major customer, then the market is still underdeveloped.  A mature market should be more stable than that.

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #221 on: February 27, 2018, 02:59:47 PM »
The sheer amount of weight Tesla claimed they were going to need would certainly affect the market. It takes thousands of smartphone batteries to equal the weight of one car's battery or hundreds of power tool batteries.

Online jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #222 on: March 14, 2018, 08:03:44 PM »
High number of flawed parts reported at Tesla factory:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/14/tesla-manufacturing-high-volume-of-flawed-parts-employees.html

I seem to recall reports that Tesla was building its final machinery first instead of building test machines like every other manufacturer.  If so, their rush to market is going to end up costing them much more than it saved. 

Online jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #223 on: March 28, 2018, 11:40:49 PM »
Tesla's bond rating downgraded:

Late on Tuesday, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Tesla’s credit rating to B3 from B2, citing "the significant shortfall in the production rate of the company’s Model 3 electric vehicle.” It also noted “liquidity pressures due to its large negative free cash flow and the pending maturities of convertible bonds.”

Tesla has $230 million in convertible bonds maturing in November 2018 and $920 million in March 2019.

Moody’s said its negative outlook “reflects the likelihood that Tesla will have to undertake a large, near-term capital raise in order to refund maturing obligations and avoid a liquidity shortfall.”

It said Tesla's weekly production target is now 2,500 Model 3 vehicles by the end of March, down sharply from its year-earlier target of 5,000 per week by the end of 2017. Tesla's weekly target for the end of June is 5,000.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #224 on: March 29, 2018, 10:02:36 AM »
Delay, delay, delay...the Tesla way!

My buddy sent in his configuration for his Model 3 last week and was told to expect it delivered in the next 3-6 weeks.  We'll see if that actually pans out (narrator: it won't).

Online GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #225 on: March 29, 2018, 01:35:07 PM »
Mean old bankers keeping the future from happening


"More bad news: Two days ago, Moody’s, the credit ratings service, downgraded Tesla to a rating of Caa1, which is extremely bad and will make it very expensive for Tesla to borrow money. All of which might not be a problem if creditors still believed in Tesla’s basic mission and Elon Musk. But yesterday afternoon, Bloomberg reported that that might not be the case anymore.

    'Wooed by Musk’s personal appeals, bond investors pretty much ignored the carmaker’s prolific cash burn and repeated failures to meet production targets and lent it $1.8 billion at record-low interest rates.'"

https://jalopnik.com/things-are-not-looking-good-for-tesla-right-now-1824174945


Offline Foraker

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #226 on: March 29, 2018, 02:14:57 PM »

Online GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #227 on: March 29, 2018, 02:34:10 PM »
Today's Minis are very poorly made and unreliable. They are also extremely difficult to work on. I don't know if electrification will make things better or worse.

Online jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #228 on: March 29, 2018, 02:51:19 PM »
Mean old bankers keeping the future from happening

Looks like the value of the gigafactory building and related land will pay off the bondholders (most of them, hopefully) when Tesla goes bankrupt.  So stockholders will be lucky to get a nickel per share. 


Online jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #229 on: April 02, 2018, 04:49:29 PM »
Tesla stock down 30% since the launch of the Model 3, from $350 to $250. 

Online jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #230 on: April 02, 2018, 06:48:26 PM »
Tesla Looked Like the Future. Now Some Ask if It Has One

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/29/business/tesla-elon-musk.html?hpw&rref=automobiles&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well

Mr. Musk originally predicted that the Model 3 would arrive in 2017 and that the car would push the company’s sales to 500,000 cars a year by 2018. He later lowered his prediction to 100,000 Model 3s in 2017. Backtracking again, he said last August that the company hoped to make 20,000 a month by December, and added that “people should have zero concerns” about Tesla’s ability to increase its output of the Model 3.

But in the fourth quarter of last year, Tesla made only 2,425 Model 3s. In its most recent plan, it hopes to lift production to 2,500 Model 3s a week. The company is expected to release first-quarter production totals in early April.


For those of you who can do basic math, 2,500/week is approximately 125,000 Model 3's in 2018.  They made 100,000 total vehicles in 2017, so maybe they get to 225,000 vehicles in 2018.  That's only roughly half what Musk predicted.  There is a HUGE difference between selling 225,000 and 500,000 cars.  It's the difference between simply losing a lot of money and going bankrupt. 

By comparison Ford makes about 225,000 vehicles per month.   





Online GCrites80s

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #231 on: April 02, 2018, 09:39:19 PM »
Also, Ford and the other major automakers have tons of other revenue streams.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #232 on: April 03, 2018, 11:07:52 AM »
https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/2/17188894/tesla-model-3-production-target-elon-musk

They're up to ~2,000 Model 3's per week (saw my first one this past weekend in Columbus - I see Model S's and X's almost daily).

So 8,000 per month?  Maybe?  I mean, they're going to struggle to get to 100,000 Model 3's in 2018 at this rate.

I just don't get it...they set these targets, knew they had to ramp up production, and...have just failed.  You'd think if they come out with these huge production estimates they'd already have MOST OF THE NECESSARY PARTS IN PLACE to meet those estimates.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #233 on: April 03, 2018, 11:10:21 AM »
My friend was in fairly early for the Model 3 deposits, but upon realizing that the model he wants (AWD) would be last and thus put the EV credit in jeopardy he changed course (I believe) and is considering a Model S instead.

UPDATE - friend opted for the Model 3 to save a lot of money and now is in "wait and see mode" - anticipated delivery of 3-4 weeks now.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #234 on: April 03, 2018, 11:12:34 AM »
Also, there's this: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/teslas-musk-takes-charge-of-model-3-production-as-problems-persist?shared=79037ad558ae276f

Quote
esla’s struggles to manufacture its flagship Model 3 electric sedan reached a boiling point last week, prompting CEO Elon Musk to take direct control of the division producing the vehicles, according to two people briefed on the matter.

The move came after Tesla failed to hit its goal of making about 500 Model 3 sedans per day, or 2,500 per week, by the end of March. Mr. Musk appears to have pushed aside the company’s senior vice president of engineering, Doug Field, who had been overseeing manufacturing in recent months.

Online jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #235 on: April 03, 2018, 11:35:24 AM »
I just don't get it...they set these targets, knew they had to ramp up production, and...have just failed.  You'd think if they come out with these huge production estimates they'd already have MOST OF THE NECESSARY PARTS IN PLACE to meet those estimates.


Refer back to the choice Tesla made to buy the final production equipment first instead of building a demo set.  Apparently all established automakers buy a set of equipment to outfit the line, build a few hundred cars, then have the final machinery rebuilt on new specs to fix problems that appeared.  Tesla is no doubt having to manufacture complex parts in-house and stop the line for each car where the assembly machinery is not working properly and install things by hand. 

Online jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #236 on: April 15, 2018, 06:07:58 PM »

Offline taestell

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #237 on: April 16, 2018, 10:44:48 AM »
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, stressed but "optimistic," predicts big increase in Model 3 production

Tesla, the pioneering electric car company, has suffered a series of very public challenges since the beginning of this year. Its high-profile CEO Elon Musk called this a period of "production hell." Most of the troubles revolve around the company's Model 3 sedan, its first mid-priced, mass-produced electric car.


In response to this article, Elon tweeted:

Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated.

Offline taestell

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #238 on: April 17, 2018, 12:35:59 PM »
Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.

During the pause, workers can choose to use vacation days or stay home without pay. This is the second such temporary shutdown in three months for a vehicle that’s already significantly behind schedule.

Online jmecklenborg

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Re: Electric Cars
« Reply #239 on: April 17, 2018, 12:45:11 PM »
Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.

During the pause, workers can choose to use vacation days or stay home without pay. This is the second such temporary shutdown in three months for a vehicle that’s already significantly behind schedule.

They should definitely be paying these workers to help maintain morale.  They're giving these guys several days to go put applications in elsewhere.