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Author Topic: Ohio: General Business & Economic News  (Read 9908 times)

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Offline IAGuy39

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #990 on: January 09, 2018, 04:08:57 PM »
Goes against conventional wisdom of Columbus being the best performing MSA in the state. Surprising to see that over a whole year. Maybe Cincy is still recovering from the Great Recession?

It would be interesting to see the median and mean annual salaries for the jobs added to each MSA.

It wouldn't make sense to have Dayton together with Cincinnati, since they are separate MSAs (and even separate CSAs).

On Cincy recovering from recession, it looks like this past year in 2017 they hit peak employment of approx. 1,082,000 jobs in the summer.  Pre-recession highs in 07 and 08 looked like around 1,070,000 jobs in summer peak

However, 2017 looks like the first time it went past pre-recession peak.

The labor force is now looking about exactly the same as it was in 2008 but with a lower unemployment rate.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT391714000000005?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true

Here's some interesting #'s:

Cincy Nov. 17 non-farm employment: 1,112,800 with average wage: $23.14/hour with 1.8% growth from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2017 in non-farm employment

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/summary/blssummary_cincinnati.pdf

Dayton Nov. 17 non-farm employment: 397,500 with average wage: $22.73/hour with 2.4%! growth from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2017 in non-farm employment

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/summary/blssummary_dayton.pdf

Columbus Nov. 17 non-farm employment: 1,097,000 with average wage: $23.48 with 0.8% growth from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2017 in non-farm employment

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/summary/blssummary_columbus_oh.pdf

Cleveland Nov. 17 non-farm employment: 1,065,600 with average wage: $23.20 with 0.4% growth from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2017 in non-farm employment

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/summary/blssummary_cleveland_oh.pdf

Akron Nov. 17 non-farm employment: 343,600 with average wage: $22.32 with -0.8% growth from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2017 in non-farm employment

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/summary/blssummary_akron.pdf

Offline ColDayMan

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #991 on: January 09, 2018, 10:47:57 PM »
Dayton I'm not surprised by as someone earlier alluded to...those light-industrial spec buildings. They are popping up all over Metro Dayton.  Akron I'm kinda surprised by as I thought it was doing fine (well, at least better than the other DATY 2ndary Ohio cities).
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Offline AmrapinVA

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #992 on: January 10, 2018, 09:05:06 AM »
I'd caution this data is preliminary and is definitely subject to change in the short and long term so I wouldn't put a lot of stock in November numbers until at least the next report.

Also, in order to properly view this data you need to look at every month of the year not just one specific month because of the seasonal variability of job types.

It was my mistake to comment, I thought the BLS had actually come out with a specific report about the year. This isn't the case, it's just the usual data they release monthly.

Offline IAGuy39

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #993 on: January 10, 2018, 09:14:17 AM »
^Right but isn't it safe to say that almost everywhere in the nation, the summer is the peak and the winter is the downturn?  That's pretty uniform across the United States.  There is probably a little less of a ridge in the south vs the north due to construction jobs, and thinking in Cincy probably a slightly smaller downturn than in Cleveland due to winter weather, but not by much

Maybe the #'s aren't all exact but it gives a good indication of what the economy is doing

Offline AmrapinVA

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #994 on: January 10, 2018, 09:24:08 AM »
^Right but isn't it safe to say that almost everywhere in the nation, the summer is the peak and the winter is the downturn?  That's pretty uniform across the United States.  There is probably a little less of a ridge in the south vs the north due to construction jobs, and thinking in Cincy probably a slightly smaller downturn than in Cleveland due to winter weather, but not by much

Maybe the #'s aren't all exact but it gives a good indication of what the economy is doing

1. Revisions from preliminary data are usually minor but sometimes aren't. The BLS even cautions about making assumptions from prelim data.
2. Data can be quite different. Cleveland's preliminary data for November is 0.4% growth (not-revised). In June it was 2.1%. That's a lot more jobs and a much higher ranking. An annual average gives a complete picture after the data has been revised. Every market has a different seasonal nature so they don't ebb and flow together.

Offline IAGuy39

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #995 on: January 10, 2018, 10:13:39 AM »
^I understand what you are saying.  I think on those profiles they have a graph showing average growth year over year per month, but maybe I am looking at it wrong.

Are you saying that the best numbers to look at are end of year #'s and aggregate total jobs gained over the year, instead of what this was showing which was increase of jobs from Nov. 16 - Nov. 17?

Offline AmrapinVA

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #996 on: January 10, 2018, 10:36:32 AM »
^I understand what you are saying.  I think on those profiles they have a graph showing average growth year over year per month, but maybe I am looking at it wrong.

Are you saying that the best numbers to look at are end of year #'s and aggregate total jobs gained over the year, instead of what this was showing which was increase of jobs from Nov. 16 - Nov. 17?

I'm saying:

1. Let the prelim data shake out: Nov. will be revised in the Dec. update.

2. Then look at monthly data over a year. I believe Cincy is still ahead of Columbus and Cle for the last 12 non-prelim data months (ending with Oct.-Oct.) if that is what you are looking for. But the aggregate picture is better and more accurate. Still not perfect because BLS sometimes revises numbers over the long term as well but it is much closer to a complete picture of the job market.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 10:38:40 AM by AmrapinVA »

Online subocincy

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #997 on: January 11, 2018, 07:43:01 AM »
Goes against conventional wisdom of Columbus being the best performing MSA in the state. Surprising to see that over a whole year. Maybe Cincy is still recovering from the Great Recession?

It would be interesting to see the median and mean annual salaries for the jobs added to each MSA.

It wouldn't make sense to have Dayton together with Cincinnati, since they are separate MSAs (and even separate CSAs).
As you implied, it's understandable why such job statistics will trigger consternation from Columbus; the numbers dramatically alter the standard narrative.  Needless to say, because such figures aren't carved in stone, they will inevitably vary from year-to-year and decade-to-decade (and maybe radically so) - but at least not this year that just ended.  The sobering fact is that these job stats are legit, that the Cincy/Dayton MSAs have not been somehow scrambled together and that the BLS isn't just fiddling around until more accurate numbers pop up.  All this kind of magical thinking only detracts from the realization that Cincinnati's job growth has been so significant that, at least for now, a new narrative needs to be recognized.   


Offline AmrapinVA

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #998 on: January 11, 2018, 08:08:56 AM »
Goes against conventional wisdom of Columbus being the best performing MSA in the state. Surprising to see that over a whole year. Maybe Cincy is still recovering from the Great Recession?

It would be interesting to see the median and mean annual salaries for the jobs added to each MSA.

It wouldn't make sense to have Dayton together with Cincinnati, since they are separate MSAs (and even separate CSAs).
As you implied, it's understandable why such job statistics will trigger consternation from Columbus; the numbers dramatically alter the standard narrative.  Needless to say, because such figures aren't carved in stone, they will inevitably vary from year-to-year and decade-to-decade (and maybe radically so) - but at least not this year that just ended.  The sobering fact is that these job stats are legit, that the Cincy/Dayton MSAs have not been somehow scrambled together and that the BLS isn't just fiddling around until more accurate numbers pop up.  All this kind of magical thinking only detracts from the realization that Cincinnati's job growth has been so significant that, at least for now, a new narrative needs to be recognized.

I hate economic city rankings because it leads to responses like this.

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #999 on: January 11, 2018, 01:21:03 PM »
I think these sorts of unweighted statistics are quite useful because the typical "Top Cities for .... " lists insert some sort of distortion.  For example, we see quite clearly from this list that Nashville is not the runaway jobs creator that its hype machine wants you to believe it is.  True, there are 10+ skyscrapers going up there as we speak, but they are mostly low-employment hotels and apartment towers. 

We also see that Detroit(!) is crushing the New South cities (again, Nashville, Charlotte) in raw job creation, even though it is of course a much bigger metro.

The Cincinnati statistic is a surprise to everyone since there is not an outburst of new construction here.  But as I mentioned previously, there were A TON of vacancies in buildings of all kinds during the recession that no doubt are re-absorbing activity, and many of them don't look like traditional office buildings.  There is a ton of Class B & C office and light industrial in and around Cincinnati where quite often 100+ people work. 
 

Offline IAGuy39

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1000 on: January 11, 2018, 03:21:46 PM »
Yeah, I'm in the middle on these rankings, it does give us a good sense of what is going on but understand it isn't completely accurate.

I would argue though that most cities in the north have around the same job cycle, so if the BLS is saying Cincy was +20k, Columbus +10k, Cleveland +3k, maybe the numbers aren't exact but I highly doubt Cincy would drop to +15k, maybe to +18 or +19k.

To Jake's point, he has to be right in the absorption of buildings.  Reading the courier almost everyday, it seems you always see a manufacturer or other type is expanding, those jobs add up over a year.  A place like Blue Ash seems to be filling up and will probably need new office buildings, they are already building industrial buildings.  We just arn'et really seeing it with new construction in the city itself.  Though driving around lately in East Walnut Hills, there are 4 active, small to large residential construction sites going on in a very small area.

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1001 on: January 11, 2018, 04:30:20 PM »
^Queen City Square was a huge office building for a market of our size.  Phase II, the big tower, is 800,000 sq feet. 

By comparison, the new Bridgestone tower in Nashville is slightly over 500,000 sq feet.  This is the only major office tower that has gone up in DT Nashville during the current boom.  The rest of the towers are residential or hotels.   

Offline IAGuy39

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1002 on: January 11, 2018, 04:47:03 PM »
This is getting off topic, and I've been to Nashville a lot, but I wish Cincinnati could start cashing in on some type of music draw parallel to Nashville.  Something like the Emery and turn it into a hot spot for country music acts, even if small.  I know the economics probably don't work at all right now but I think something like that could do well in Cincinnati.  That said, I know for certain there has got to be tons of starving to death artists in Nashville that are having a tougher and tougher time paying rent, so we could be a good secondary market for it, if someone that had some dough and connections decided to open up a recording studio in Cincy

Offline Cleburger

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1003 on: January 11, 2018, 05:31:41 PM »
This is getting off topic, and I've been to Nashville a lot, but I wish Cincinnati could start cashing in on some type of music draw parallel to Nashville.  Something like the Emery and turn it into a hot spot for country music acts, even if small.  I know the economics probably don't work at all right now but I think something like that could do well in Cincinnati.  That said, I know for certain there has got to be tons of starving to death artists in Nashville that are having a tougher and tougher time paying rent, so we could be a good secondary market for it, if someone that had some dough and connections decided to open up a recording studio in Cincy

Would be a long uphill climb to catch up with Nashville. 

Don't you guys still have Ultrasuede?  John Curley's studio?

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1004 on: January 11, 2018, 05:48:56 PM »
I was just talking to someone yesterday who is about 22 who wants to play music in Nashville even though he's never been there.  I told him that the rent is ridiculous down there and I don't think he understands what paying $1,000+ mo. and having 2-3 roommates means. 

I imagine that the typical gig in Nashville pays no more than one in Ohio because there are no shortage of people willing to play for $25.  20 $25 gigs per month = $500. 


Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1005 on: January 11, 2018, 05:53:29 PM »
It's hard to get gigs there because the bands are really cliquey.

Offline Cleburger

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1006 on: January 11, 2018, 05:53:40 PM »
I was just talking to someone yesterday who is about 22 who wants to play music in Nashville even though he's never been there.  I told him that the rent is ridiculous down there and I don't think he understands what paying $1,000+ mo. and having 2-3 roommates means. 

I imagine that the typical gig in Nashville pays no more than one in Ohio because there are no shortage of people willing to play for $25.  20 $25 gigs per month = $500. 



Then again, in a booming economy there are plenty of day jobs for would-be musicians.  d

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1007 on: January 11, 2018, 06:18:50 PM »

Then again, in a booming economy there are plenty of day jobs for would-be musicians.  d


Yeah he parks cars for a boutique hotel in Cincinnati.  I can't imagine that the same gig pays any more, let alone significantly more there.  But he's currently paying about 1/3 what he'd be paying to rent in Nashville. 


Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1008 on: January 11, 2018, 06:20:39 PM »
It's hard to get gigs there because the bands are really cliquey.

I'm just skeptical that there are many high-paying regular gigs there.  Unless you're playing high class charity events and rich people weddings, you aren't pocketing more than $50 playing in a 3-5 piece band.  Which is no different than here. 

Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1009 on: January 11, 2018, 09:00:07 PM »
Even Nashville has high-paying regular gigs for bands that play Nickelback covers in strip malls.

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1010 on: January 12, 2018, 01:41:10 PM »
I think these sorts of unweighted statistics are quite useful because the typical "Top Cities for..." lists insert some sort of distortion...

The Cincinnati statistic is a surprise to everyone since there is not an outburst of new construction here.  But as I mentioned previously, there were A TON of vacancies in buildings of all kinds during the recession that no doubt are re-absorbing activity, and many of them don't look like traditional office buildings.  There is a ton of Class B & C office and light industrial in and around Cincinnati where quite often 100+ people work. 
 
Yeah, I'm in the middle on these rankings, it does give us a good sense of what is going on but understand it isn't completely accurate...

To Jake's point, he has to be right in the absorption of buildings.  Reading the courier almost everyday, it seems you always see a manufacturer or other type is expanding, those jobs add up over a year.  A place like Blue Ash seems to be filling up and will probably need new office buildings, they are already building industrial buildings.  We just aren't really seeing it with new construction in the city itself.  Though driving around lately in East Walnut Hills, there are 4 active, small to large residential construction sites going on in a very small area.
Since both of you have alluded to the accuracy of statistics as evidence of what's actually going on within MSAs ranked for job growth and construction projects leading to job growth - after examining the four links below, what may be concluded about Cincinnati when rated with its Midwestern peer cities?  All this material is listed sequentially by year and it stems from Site Selection Magazine, a strictly professional publication aimed at a select business audience:

http://siteselection.com/issues/2017/nov/top-competitive-cities-central-us-dominates.cfm

http://siteselection.com/issues/2017/mar/top-metropolitans-of-2016.cfm

http://siteselection.com/issues/2016/mar/top-metropolitans.cfm

http://siteselection.com/issues/2015/mar/top-metros.cfm





Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1011 on: January 12, 2018, 01:56:33 PM »
^I don't really know what Cincinnati's advantage is over Columbus, Indy, Louisville.  The tax rates and cost of living are similar.  CVG is not an exceptional airport anymore.  My only hunch is that the big Cincinnati corporations attract related businesses, not unlike parts suppliers for automobile plants. 

Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1012 on: January 12, 2018, 02:19:27 PM »
Yes, Columbus doesn't have that. Our big companies are mostly all paper and digital rather than goods. They don't have "suppliers". Honda does, but few of them are in the city.

Offline Robuu

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1013 on: January 12, 2018, 02:30:30 PM »
My question would be where the people filling these jobs are coming from. Does Cincy have a larger group of long-term out-of-work people who weren't counting towards unemployment stats? Columbus has exploding population growth, and there must be jobs for those people moving in. Cincy does not have exploding population growth, so with a greater gain in jobs, I'm left wondering where the new employees are coming from.

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1014 on: January 12, 2018, 03:34:00 PM »
As a percentage the number of people in a metro population who are "unenmployed" versus "employed" might look like a lot of people on paper but in reality you can't see the difference.  10,000 new jobs versus 20,000 new jobs out of 2 million is only .005% difference. 

Also, the legacy housing stock in Cincinnati probably distorts its housing new-starts as compared to Columbus, Indy, and Louisville.  It was 2x as big in 1950 and so has WAY more prewar 2 & 3-bedroom "starter" homes and prewar 2-family houses.  During the recession many of these structures were completely vacant but might now have 2-4 people living in them.  So there hasn't necessarily been a lot of new construction...just people moving out of their mom's or brother's house into their own apartments or homes. 

Offline IAGuy39

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1015 on: January 12, 2018, 03:48:35 PM »
I think on the site selector lists it is more evidence to what we see with the BLS Data, I think too and not at my desk but the recent year over year was the best in a long time.

Strategically I think Cincy metro performs well because of top business talent at top companies branching off and starting new companies, taking over, etc and ramping them up. I also think that top talent helps the Kentucky area too, with NKY maybe looked as more business friendly than Ohio. It is also centrally located in the United States, it has a very large rail facility, very large air cargo hub,  and I think on the economic development sector we have good leadership.

Employment levels just this past year hit and exceeded pre-recession levels, so a lot of the people may have been under employed and unemployed. If the job numbers continue to grow at this rate for 3-5 years, in a few years you will start to notice good population gains, I would imagine.

Offline GCrites80s

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1016 on: January 12, 2018, 04:11:15 PM »
As a percentage the number of people in a metro population who are "unenmployed" versus "employed" might look like a lot of people on paper but in reality you can't see the difference.  10,000 new jobs versus 20,000 new jobs out of 2 million is only .005% difference. 

Also, the legacy housing stock in Cincinnati probably distorts its housing new-starts as compared to Columbus, Indy, and Louisville.  It was 2x as big in 1950 and so has WAY more prewar 2 & 3-bedroom "starter" homes and prewar 2-family houses.  During the recession many of these structures were completely vacant but might now have 2-4 people living in them.  So there hasn't necessarily been a lot of new construction...just people moving out of their mom's or brother's house into their own apartments or homes. 


Lancaster is like that.

Offline jmecklenborg

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1017 on: January 12, 2018, 05:02:04 PM »
As a percentage the number of people in a metro population who are "unenmployed" versus "employed" might look like a lot of people on paper but in reality you can't see the difference.  10,000 new jobs versus 20,000 new jobs out of 2 million is only .005% difference. 

Also, the legacy housing stock in Cincinnati probably distorts its housing new-starts as compared to Columbus, Indy, and Louisville.  It was 2x as big in 1950 and so has WAY more prewar 2 & 3-bedroom "starter" homes and prewar 2-family houses.  During the recession many of these structures were completely vacant but might now have 2-4 people living in them.  So there hasn't necessarily been a lot of new construction...just people moving out of their mom's or brother's house into their own apartments or homes. 


Lancaster is like that.

Cincinnati has TONS of these:
https://www.sibcycline.com/Listing/CIN/1561981/5619-Surrey-Ave-Bridgetown-OH-45248

and these:
https://www.sibcycline.com/Listing/CIN/1564413/4539-Ruebel-Pl-Bridgetown-OH-45211

Yet we still have people running around talking about some sort of mythical "housing crisis" in Cincinnati. 

Offline unusualfire

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1018 on: January 12, 2018, 05:17:52 PM »
I think people want more modern and new homes. They don't want the headache of remodeling and maintenance of older homes. I bought my first home. An older one(1965), but it needs lots of work. I got a great deal on it in a great neighborhood in Ky.

Offline Cleburger

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Re: Ohio: General Business & Economic News
« Reply #1019 on: January 13, 2018, 09:43:14 AM »
I think people want more modern and new homes. They don't want the headache of remodeling and maintenance of older homes. I bought my first home. An older one(1965), but it needs lots of work. I got a great deal on it in a great neighborhood in Ky.

It's the American way--just be lazy and throw it away and get a new one.  My friend with an 800 year old cottage in the UK thinks we are all crazy.