Author Topic: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives  (Read 4846 times)

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Offline Ram23

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #90 on: August 08, 2018, 03:02:07 PM »
Yeah, it says " they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats." If Democrats couldn't flip this seat in Ohio, what seats do you think they will flip?

There are 68 R-held House seats less Republican than #OH12, per @CookPolitical PVI, and 119 less Republican than the #PA18 seat Dems won in March. Dems need to flip 23 to win House.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1027033730534309889

How many of those 68 are in Ohio? And how many of those are essentially on par with OH12? Also, why'd you stop quoting my post at that spot? Was it to purposely remove context in order to make it seem like I wasn't specifically talking about seats in Ohio?

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #91 on: August 08, 2018, 03:03:47 PM »
OH-1 and OH-15 have partisan leans that are less Republican than OH-12.  So there's 3 seats, possibly.

Offline DEPACincy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #92 on: August 08, 2018, 04:18:35 PM »
OH-1 and OH-15 have partisan leans that are less Republican than OH-12.  So there's 3 seats, possibly.

OH-10 and OH-14 are equally Republican or less so than OH-12 as well. So there are potentially five seats in play if things stay the same or get worse for the GOP. Not that I think there's any chance that they'd all go Republican, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see 3 or 4 of them flip.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2018, 04:20:44 PM by DEPACincy »

Offline Robuu

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #93 on: August 08, 2018, 04:57:04 PM »
I don't see the 10th going Democratic. The district shifted more red for Trump than it had in previous elections (unlike Warren and Hamilton or Franklin and Delaware). Also, Turner is moderate on a lot of things, like he voted against repealing Obamacare (which is possibly the main issue making Republicans vulnerable aside from being the party of an unpopular president).

Offline mu2010

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #94 on: August 08, 2018, 06:09:36 PM »
Dave Joyce in OH-14 also voted against the first Obamacare repeal (AHCA?).

Offline Brutus_buckeye

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #95 on: August 08, 2018, 11:21:49 PM »
OH-1 and OH-15 have partisan leans that are less Republican than OH-12.  So there's 3 seats, possibly.

Don't see the OH-1 going democratic. It will be a closer race than normal but Chabot will likely win. Too much Warren county to cover to really have a good chance to flip it. Plus, given that Chabot is an incumbent with name recognition, it is harder to upend such candidate with the name recognition. The thing that made OH-12 so competitive is that it was an open seat and neither candidate had the name recognition of an incumbent. This was part of the reason why OH-2 became briefly competitive 12 years earlier.

Offline YABO713

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #96 on: August 09, 2018, 09:09:29 AM »
OH-1 and OH-15 have partisan leans that are less Republican than OH-12.  So there's 3 seats, possibly.

Don't see the OH-1 going democratic. It will be a closer race than normal but Chabot will likely win. Too much Warren county to cover to really have a good chance to flip it. Plus, given that Chabot is an incumbent with name recognition, it is harder to upend such candidate with the name recognition. The thing that made OH-12 so competitive is that it was an open seat and neither candidate had the name recognition of an incumbent. This was part of the reason why OH-2 became briefly competitive 12 years earlier.

Balderson was well known state-wide, no?

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #97 on: August 09, 2018, 11:25:43 AM »
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ohio-finds-votes-special-elections_us_5b6c0aeae4b0530743c72e77

588 uncounted votes were tabulated yesterday.  Balderson's lead is down to 1,564 votes, or 0.8%.  If the absentee and provisional ballots drop that to 0.5% it would trigger on automatic recount.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #98 on: August 09, 2018, 11:26:26 AM »
OH-1 and OH-15 have partisan leans that are less Republican than OH-12.  So there's 3 seats, possibly.

OH-10 and OH-14 are equally Republican or less so than OH-12 as well. So there are potentially five seats in play if things stay the same or get worse for the GOP. Not that I think there's any chance that they'd all go Republican, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see 3 or 4 of them flip.

OH-16 has a PVI of R+8 with no incumbent running.  Unlikely, but crazier things have happened.