Author Topic: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives  (Read 4884 times)

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Offline YABO713

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #30 on: May 10, 2018, 01:41:08 PM »
Jim Jordan wields little to no power in this state except in the 15-20 counties Northwest of Columbus and Southwest of Toledo

You sure about that? Melanie Leneghan was a total unknown until he threw his support behind her.

Jim Jordan is a huge figure in the state media cult of Fox News. 

I am positive. Losing by a narrow margin in the primary isn't exactly a sterling endorsement of an ability to influence state-wide elections.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #31 on: May 16, 2018, 04:33:44 PM »
https://www.scribd.com/document/379408429/Read-ECU-poll-results

Balderson up 45%-43% over O'Connor in latest ECU poll for OH-12 special election.

Offline ethlaw

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #32 on: May 17, 2018, 03:42:21 PM »
^ Wow that is.... extremely close for that district. Republicans usually win there by rather large margins.

Offline Columbo

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #33 on: June 12, 2018, 10:34:15 AM »
https://www.scribd.com/document/379408429/Read-ECU-poll-results

Balderson up 45%-43% over O'Connor in latest ECU poll for OH-12 special election.

Today's Dispatch is reporting that a Monmouth University poll has Republican State Sen. Troy Balderson of Zanesville leading 43 percent to 33 percent over Democrat Danny O’Connor, the Franklin County recorder in the special Aug. 7 election to fill Tiberi's OH-12 seat in the U.S. House:

http://www.thisweeknews.com/news/20180611/12th-district-new-poll-gay-dance-party-to-greet-pence-balderson-reverses-on-ecot
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Offline ethlaw

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #34 on: June 12, 2018, 11:33:59 AM »
^ That's more like what I expected from this district. Delaware County may be getting more purple and Franklin keeps getting more and more blue, but the inclusion of Licking and Morrow counties keeps that district in pretty solid red territory. Democrats would probably be polling a bit better if someone like John Russell (outsider, farmer) got the nomination instead.

Offline Columbo

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #35 on: July 08, 2018, 01:48:48 PM »

This isn't your father's (or your grandfather's) Columbus Dispatch anymore.  The Dispatch endorses Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor, a Democrat, over State Sen. Troy Balderson, a Republican, in the August 7th special election for Tiberi's open OH-12 seat: 

http://www.dispatch.com/opinion/20180708/endorsement-for-12th-district-danny-oconnor-favored-for-open-seat
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Offline Columbo

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #36 on: July 25, 2018, 07:56:43 PM »
Ohio’s special US House election last stop before November:  https://apnews.com/9ad4d7518db64c92ab4236f85bd3c30b

It'll be interesting to see how this August 7th special election turns out.  If this reliably red OH-12 house district that Republicans have controlled since 1983 and Trump carried by 11 points in 2016 flips Democratic (or is even a close call) it'll be another sign of a blue wave coming in the November mid-terms.

The above AP article gives an overview of the GOP and DEM candidates and a general lay of the land - especially about how both sides are pouring ad money into this race (as anyone in the Columbus TV viewing market can also attest to).  The below article from the Dispatch shows a potentially troubling development for the GOP in the OH-12 race - Democrats are far outnumbering Republicans in early voting:

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180720/democrats-requesting-far-more-ballots-in-oconnor-balderson-race

"Democrats in the pivotal 12th Congressional District special election are requesting absentee ballots at twice the rate as Republicans, a strong sign Democratic candidate Danny O’Connor will run an extremely competitive race next month against Republican Troy Balderson.  In what is becoming one of the most watched elections across the country, more than 5,300 Democrats in the seven counties that make up the district have requested absentee ballots so far, compared to 2,538 for Republicans."

"In Franklin County — the most Democratic portion of the district — on July 19th, 82 absentee ballots were mailed to Democrats who’d requested them and only 2 to Republicans.  On July 18th, 133 Democrats voted in person at the Franklin County elections board, compared to 15 Republicans.  So far, 78.5 percent of the absentee ballots requested by mail are by Democrats, while 84 percent of the in-person absentee votes were cast by Democrats."

"In heavily Republican Delaware County, of the 1,785 absentee ballots requested by July 19th, 62.1 percent were marked Democratic while 37.9 percent were marked Republican.  In Licking County, another strong GOP county, 57.3 percent of the 1,650 absentee ballots requested — in which party preference was declared — are marked Democrat."

"The August 7 race will decide which candidate fills the term through the end of the year.  The same two candidates face each other in November to see who holds the seat for the next two years."
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #37 on: August 01, 2018, 09:17:36 AM »
Things are going so well for Balderson he's calling in reinforcements this weekend from Donald Trump.

Offline Columbo

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #38 on: August 01, 2018, 11:22:45 AM »
Things are going so well for Balderson he's calling in reinforcements this weekend from Donald Trump.

He had Pence "firing up the troops" in Newark on Monday - promising a "red wave":  http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180730/pence-says-red-wave-will-begin-in-ohios-special-congressional-election

Looks like Trump will be speaking at the Delaware County Fairgrounds Coliseum in Delaware 6:30PM on Saturday:  http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180731/trump-to-stump-for-balderson-on-saturday-evening-in-delaware
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 11:27:31 AM by Columbo »
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #39 on: August 01, 2018, 11:29:19 AM »
Looks like Trump will be speaking at the Delaware County Fairgrounds Coliseum in Delaware 6:30PM on Saturday:  http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180731/trump-to-stump-for-balderson-on-saturday-evening-in-delaware

His track record of endorsements in special elections is, uh, spotty.

Offline Columbo

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #40 on: August 01, 2018, 01:20:42 PM »
http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180801/monmouth-poll-12th-district-race-in-central-ohio-dead-heat

Quote from: http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180801/monmouth-poll-12th-district-race-in-central-ohio-dead-heat
As President Donald Trump prepares to visit the 12th Congressional District in an effort to stop the bleeding for Republicans, a new poll shows the race between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O’Connor is neck-and-neck.

A Monmouth University Poll has Balderson up 44-43 percent, in what is a significant tightening of the race over the last month since the poll showed the Republican state senator up 10 points.

“This race has definitely tightened in the past month.  This is similar to the trend we saw in our polling of the Pennsylvania special election earlier this year,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, talking about a March special election in which Democrat Conor Lamb won a heavily Republican-leaning seat.
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #41 on: August 01, 2018, 06:59:11 PM »
The Balderson/anti-O'Connor ads are embarrassing.

Offline Columbo

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #42 on: August 02, 2018, 01:24:47 PM »
The Balderson/anti-O'Connor ads are embarrassing.

Don't you mean "Dishonest" Danny O'Connor and his extreme liberal agenda with Nancy Pelosi in grainy black-and-white closeup photos???  Yeah, embarrassingly bad.
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #43 on: August 02, 2018, 02:03:17 PM »
And the one with seniors saying O'Connor doesn't know what it's like to live as a... senior. He might even support environmental regulations!!

Offline Columbo

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #44 on: August 02, 2018, 07:27:57 PM »
Posted in the Trump Presidency thread:

The President just tweeted out an endorsement of Steve Stivers in the August 7 special election.
Stivers is not running in a special election. He doesn't even know the name of the candidate.
Saturday's rally for Troy Balderson is gonna be a  show



I for one hope that many good Republicans in the 12th district follow Trump's advise and vote for Steve Stivers on August 7th.  They should also not be concerned that Troy Balderson's name is the ballot instead of the Trump endorsed Steve Stivers.  Don't let the Deep State tell you who to vote for on August 7th!
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Offline casey

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #45 on: August 04, 2018, 10:16:40 AM »
My favorite attack lines from the Balderson ads are that "Dishonest Danny" O'Connor "hired a life coach" and "REFUSES to fix Social Security and Medicare" (as is his job as Franklin County Recorder??)

Offline Columbo

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #46 on: August 04, 2018, 11:32:37 AM »
https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/pres-trump-s-saturday-rally-moved-to-olentangy-orange-high-school/1342208035

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/community-split-about-hosting-pres-trump-at-olentangy-orange-high-school/1345313137

Trump's "rally for Troy Balderson" have been moved to the Olentangy Orange High School gym.  Reportedly because the Delaware County Fairgrounds Coliseum's 1,500 capacity was "too small".  But also because the Trump people have no sense of irony in scheduling Trump for a venue with orange in its name.
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #47 on: August 04, 2018, 01:41:41 PM »
My favorite attack lines from the Balderson ads are that "Dishonest Danny" O'Connor "hired a life coach" and "REFUSES to fix Social Security and Medicare" (as is his job as Franklin County Recorder??)

He's a Democrat who'd...vote for the leader of the Democratic Party for House Speaker if he were elected.  Can you believe??

Offline X

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #48 on: August 05, 2018, 02:34:42 PM »
Posted in the Trump Presidency thread:

The President just tweeted out an endorsement of Steve Stivers in the August 7 special election.
Stivers is not running in a special election. He doesn't even know the name of the candidate.
Saturday's rally for Troy Balderson is gonna be a  show



I for one hope that many good Republicans in the 12th district follow Trump's advise and vote for Steve Stivers on August 7th.  They should also not be concerned that Troy Balderson's name is the ballot instead of the Trump endorsed Steve Stivers.  Don't let the Deep State tell you who to vote for on August 7th!

Who are you going to believe- the ballot or President Trump?

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #49 on: August 05, 2018, 04:46:54 PM »
O'Connor may win early voting by ~30 points per reports.

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #50 on: August 05, 2018, 08:51:54 PM »
The NRCC wants retired folks to trust a Republican, you know...the party that has said they want to cut social spending and reform Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security to help plug the deficit, with their Medicare, a form of socialism.

So they're admitting some forms of socialism are good?  Does their base agree?

Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #51 on: August 07, 2018, 03:26:04 PM »
Don't think Balderson's "We don't want someone from Franklin County representing us" comment will have enough time to take hold.

But I'm certain O'Connor will be playing that on blast leading up to the November election.

Offline Columbo

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #52 on: August 07, 2018, 06:47:06 PM »
The OH-12 special election is finally here - voting ends today at 7:30PM.  As anyone who watched any amount of TV in Central Ohio can attest, removing the carpet-bombing level of Balderson/O'Connor ads from the broadcasts will be welcome:

http://www.thisweeknews.com/news/20180804/political-ad-bombardment-reaches-potus-campaign-levels
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Offline Columbo

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #53 on: August 07, 2018, 06:47:48 PM »
Sunday's Capitol Insider column in the Dispatch from Darrel Rowland is always a good read.  Here's last Sunday's column, which looks at the OH-12 race:  http://www.thisweeknews.com/news/20180805/capitol-insider-is-it-now-or-never-for-danny-oconnor

This was another column about the OH-12 race from a different Dispatch reporter.  It's also a good read, with five reasons why this race could set the scene across Ohio and nationally for what happens in November:  http://www.thisweeknews.com/news/20180802/12th-district-race-means-more-than-just-one-seat-in-congress

^ The second linked article also contained a very detailed map of the Franklin County portion of the OH-12 district.  OH-12 is one of the most heavily gerrymandered congressional districts, sprawling over parts of six counties north and east of Columbus.  But it is in the northern part of Franklin County that we see the gerrymandering taken to a street-to-street level.  Here's a map of OH-12 in Franklin County:




And here's the entire OH-12 district map:
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Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #54 on: August 08, 2018, 09:12:12 AM »
OH-15 might be even more gerrymandered than OH-12.


Offline DarkandStormy

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #55 on: August 08, 2018, 09:14:13 AM »
It's too close to call as of now in the OH-12 special election.  Some 8,433 ballots are still outstanding - absentee and provisional ballots.  Balderson is clinging to a 1,734 vote lead, or 0.9%.  If O'Connor were to win the outstanding ballots by 60.2% he would win the race.

So Balderson is certainly sitting in better position, but this was a district Tiberi won by 34 points and Trump carried by 11 points less than two years ago.  To be a virtual tie is a terrible sign for Republicans.

It also reinforces why they gerrymandered the **** out of the state and have been pushing for voter roll purges the last several years.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2018, 09:16:33 AM by DarkandStormy »

Offline YABO713

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #56 on: August 08, 2018, 09:15:34 AM »
The Green Party continues to be UH-TRO-SHUS at politics

Offline freefourur

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #57 on: August 08, 2018, 09:32:06 AM »

Offline gottaplan

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #58 on: August 08, 2018, 09:39:57 AM »
It's too close to call as of now in the OH-12 special election.  Some 8,433 ballots are still outstanding - absentee and provisional ballots.  Balderson is clinging to a 1,734 vote lead, or 0.9%.  If O'Connor were to win the outstanding ballots by 60.2% he would win the race.

So Balderson is certainly sitting in better position, but this was a district Tiberi won by 34 points and Trump carried by 11 points less than two years ago.  To be a virtual tie is a terrible sign for Republicans.

It also reinforces why they gerrymandered the **** out of the state and have been pushing for voter roll purges the last several years.

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

Did I read that correctly?

Offline YABO713

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Re: 2018 U.S. House of Representatives
« Reply #59 on: August 08, 2018, 09:41:58 AM »
It's too close to call as of now in the OH-12 special election.  Some 8,433 ballots are still outstanding - absentee and provisional ballots.  Balderson is clinging to a 1,734 vote lead, or 0.9%.  If O'Connor were to win the outstanding ballots by 60.2% he would win the race.

So Balderson is certainly sitting in better position, but this was a district Tiberi won by 34 points and Trump carried by 11 points less than two years ago.  To be a virtual tie is a terrible sign for Republicans.

It also reinforces why they gerrymandered the **** out of the state and have been pushing for voter roll purges the last several years.

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

Did I read that correctly?

Yeah, kind of absurd.

It'll be interesting to see if the Green Party leaves it alone or not.