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Offline Boreas

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #805 on: December 21, 2009, 12:48:28 AM »
...You are assuming that the petro industry controls our government whereas others contend that the IMF and World Bank have more influence.

Everyone has a pony in this race.  It will be interesting to see who wins.  Whoever wins stands to either make a lot of money (Al Gore and his "green" companies, those seeking a global currency, those trading carbon credits, etc...) or stay in business as usual (coal and petroleum companies, farmers, electrical companies, car manufacturers, etc...).
Wind turbine companies like Vestas and photovoltaic manufacturers are matched up against giants Exxon and Texaco.  Hardly a fair match.  The oil companies have huge budgets for controlling government(s).  Hell, they have the power to launch a war and take over another government (Iraq, 2003).
I'll believe in global warming when the oil companies tell me to.

Offline Hootenany

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #806 on: December 21, 2009, 01:20:50 AM »
^I like how you conveniently left General Electric out of your list of wind turbine manufacturers.  Yeah, hardly a fair match...  :roll:

We need to look past all the special interest groups and corporations and do what's best for the people in terms of global warming.  You honestly believe that global warming will have devastating consequences if drastic steps aren't taken.  I do not.  This is where the debate should focus... not on who's corporation or special interest has more political influence.

Offline tedolph

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #807 on: December 21, 2009, 03:36:02 AM »
...You are assuming that the petro industry controls our government whereas others contend that the IMF and World Bank have more influence.

Everyone has a pony in this race.  It will be interesting to see who wins.  Whoever wins stands to either make a lot of money (Al Gore and his "green" companies, those seeking a global currency, those trading carbon credits, etc...) or stay in business as usual (coal and petroleum companies, farmers, electrical companies, car manufacturers, etc...).
Wind turbine companies like Vestas and photovoltaic manufacturers are matched up against giants Exxon and Texaco.  Hardly a fair match.  The oil companies have huge budgets for controlling government(s).  Hell, they have the power to launch a war and take over another government (Iraq, 2003).

Good God.  British Petroleum owned a solar panel company for many years, one of the biggest.  They got out of it because of the volatility (i.e. OPEC) in oil prices which made capital acquisition through issuing securities impossible.  Without significant production (i.e. capital) investment it was impossible to bring costs down.  BP went public a few years ago with a major plan to invest heavily in alternative energy.  They dropped the idea when they couldn't raise any money. 

Offline MyTwoSense

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #808 on: December 21, 2009, 03:43:52 AM »
...You are assuming that the petro industry controls our government whereas others contend that the IMF and World Bank have more influence.

Everyone has a pony in this race.  It will be interesting to see who wins.  Whoever wins stands to either make a lot of money (Al Gore and his "green" companies, those seeking a global currency, those trading carbon credits, etc...) or stay in business as usual (coal and petroleum companies, farmers, electrical companies, car manufacturers, etc...).
Wind turbine companies like Vestas and photovoltaic manufacturers are matched up against giants Exxon and Texaco.  Hardly a fair match.  The oil companies have huge budgets for controlling government(s).  Hell, they have the power to launch a war and take over another government (Iraq, 2003).

Good God.  British Petroleum owned a solar panel company for many years, one of the biggest.  They got out of it because of the volatility (i.e. OPEC) in oil prices which made capital acquisition through issuing securities impossible.  Without significant production (i.e. capital) investment it was impossible to bring costs down.  BP went public a few years ago with a major plan to invest heavily in alternative energy.  They dropped the idea when they couldn't raise any money. 

Not correct.  BP has been in the Solar power business since the late 70's.  This was even prior to the merger of SOHIO. Most of their facilities are over seas.  When I was still at BP London, the company had facilities in 80 countries (IIRC).  At that time, the company was experimenting with adding solar power to each of its stations and office.  The garage at BP was going to become solar powered along with the Atrium.
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Offline Hootenany

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #809 on: December 21, 2009, 03:48:46 AM »
^A lot of traditional oil companies are starting to market themselves as "energy companies".  They want to sell "energy", not just oil.  I think they realize peak oil is pretty much unavoidable (as it is with all non-renewable resources) and they need to diversify.  They want to provide whatever energy source it is people are willing to pay for and that they can make a profit on.  Plain and simple.

Offline MyTwoSense

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #810 on: December 21, 2009, 03:52:21 AM »
^A lot of traditional oil companies are starting to market themselves as "energy companies".  They want to sell "energy", not just oil.  I think they realize peak oil is pretty much unavoidable (as it is with all non-renewable resources) and they need to diversify.  They want to provide whatever energy source it is people are willing to pay for and that they can make a profit on.  Plain and simple.

A lot of "oil company's" are diversified.  It's just that Oil is the major revenue earner. 
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Offline Boreas

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #811 on: December 21, 2009, 04:02:06 AM »
Today's discussion buries the notion that there is a renewable energy cabal that is promoting the global warming issue so that they can profit.
I'll believe in global warming when the oil companies tell me to.

Offline Hootenany

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #812 on: December 22, 2009, 06:11:34 AM »
Probably one of the worst ideas ever.  But at least it's cheap!

Nathan Myhrvold's Anti Global Warming Scheme

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2511875/nathan_myhrvolds_anti_global_warming.html

Nathan Myhrvold also thinks that he has found a cheap and reliable way to solve global warming, which does not involve upending and perhaps destroying the world's economy. The global warming solution proposed by Nathan Myhvold involves running a hose up to the stratosphere with balloons and using that hose to pump out enough sulfur particles to dim the sun's heat just enough to counteract the effects of global warming. The estimated cost would be about two hundred and fifty million dollars.

Offline tedolph

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #813 on: December 22, 2009, 06:47:54 AM »
"Not correct.  BP has been in the Solar power business since the late 70's." 

MTS, are you saying that BP did not divest itself of its solar panel business a few (maybe two) years ago? I was sure that they sold it and then moved away from their plan to invest big in other alternative energy systems, something they had invested in since the 70's. 

Did I get this wrong?

Offline MyTwoSense

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #814 on: December 22, 2009, 06:58:51 AM »
"Not correct.  BP has been in the Solar power business since the late 70's." 

MTS, are you saying that BP did not divest itself of its solar panel business a few (maybe two) years ago? I was sure that they sold it and then moved away from their plan to invest big in other alternative energy systems, something they had invested in since the 70's. 

Did I get this wrong?

I can only speak about what I dealt with when I worked at SOHIO.  I don't know what they are doing right now.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2009, 06:59:37 AM by MyTwoSense »
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Offline tedolph

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #815 on: December 22, 2009, 09:44:59 AM »
So why did you say I was wrong?

Offline MyTwoSense

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #816 on: December 22, 2009, 10:07:31 AM »
So why did you say I was wrong?

Look at your original post. 
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Offline Boreas

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #817 on: December 23, 2009, 04:56:46 AM »
The global warming solution proposed by Nathan Myhvold involves running a hose up to the stratosphere with balloons and using that hose to pump out enough sulfur particles to dim the sun's heat just enough to counteract the effects of global warming.
It has been proposed to launch sulphur particles into the high atmosphere using very big artillery guns.  I think it would be a good way to prevent the tipping points such as the melting of the permafrost that is going to allow the biomass to decay and release more global warming gasses.  Some environmentalists think it is a lousy fix and will allow the industrial world to continue business as usual--mining, drilling, and polluting.  It would also cause photovoltaics and other solar energy to be less effective.
I'll believe in global warming when the oil companies tell me to.

Offline tedolph

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #818 on: December 23, 2009, 05:14:05 AM »
So why did you say I was wrong?

Look at your original post. 

??? My contention was and is in response to Boreal's post that it is not the evil oil companies that are holding back renewable energy development/deployment it is OPEC with its ability and historical tendency to intermittently drop oil prices thereby scaring away alternative energy investors including the oil companies themselves (e.g. BP).  So how am I wrong?

I am not trying to be argumentative, I just want to understand your post.  Sorry if I am being thick headed. 
« Last Edit: December 23, 2009, 05:44:11 AM by tedolph »

Offline Hootenany

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #819 on: December 23, 2009, 05:22:08 AM »
^^If this solution could counter CO2 emissions then why shouldn't companies be allowed to emit CO2 as usual?  Why would we continue to hamstring ourselves after we've solved the problem?

In any case, this is a terrible idea.  I can't imagine the environmentalists would get behind this because it is more altering of the climate and could bring about terrible unforeseen consequences.  Once you start this process would you be able to stop?  When?  How?  What is the lag time on the effectiveness of the sulfur particles?

Climate science isn't to the point yet that they can accurately predict future climate trends.  So how could we expect them to input the correct amount of sulfur into the atmosphere to counter the predicted warming?
« Last Edit: December 23, 2009, 05:40:27 AM by Hootenany »

Offline MyTwoSense

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #820 on: December 23, 2009, 05:36:42 AM »
So why did you say I was wrong?

Look at your original post. 

 :? My contention was and is in response to Boreal's post that it is not the evil oil companies that are holding back renewable energy development/deployment it is OPEC with its ability and historical tendency to intermittently drop oil prices thereby scaring away alternative energy investors including the oil companies themselves (e.g. BP).  So how am I wrong?

Maybe a visit to BPs website is in order?
« Last Edit: December 23, 2009, 05:36:49 AM by MyTwoSense »
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Offline Boreas

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #821 on: December 23, 2009, 06:46:52 AM »
... Boreal's post that it is not the evil oil companies that are holding back renewable energy development/deployment it is OPEC with its ability and historical tendency to intermittently drop oil prices thereby scaring away alternative energy investors including the oil companies themselves (e.g. BP). 
...
that's not what I said.

I said that there is not a cabal of renewable energy companies lobbying for GW controls (whether they are needed controls or not).
I'll believe in global warming when the oil companies tell me to.

Offline tedolph

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #822 on: December 23, 2009, 08:38:49 AM »
OK, mea culpa.  Went to the website.  BP has not divested its solar power business.  Don't know where I got that idea from.  Although I could swear that I read an article not too long ago in which the new CEO said he was going to divest all the alternative energy portfolio. 

MTS, this crow tastes pretty good!

Offline MyTwoSense

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #823 on: December 23, 2009, 08:44:14 AM »
OK, mea culpa.  Went to the website.  BP has not divested its solar power business.  Don't know where I got that idea from.  Although I could swear that I read an article not too long ago in which the new CEO said he was going to divest all the alternative energy portfolio. 

MTS, this crow tastes pretty good!

Tastes like chicken, right?
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Offline Sherman Cahal

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #824 on: January 11, 2010, 01:11:26 AM »
Cold stuns Floridians, causes deaths elsewhere
By Brendan Farrington, AP, January 9, 2010

ORLANDO, Fla. — Mark and Barbara Willard were at home in Wickford, England two weeks ago checking the weather forecast on the Internet before packing for their trip to Orlando – sunny and 70 degrees.

On Saturday afternoon they had the hoods on their brand new coats pulled tight around their heads as the walked down the International Drive tourist strip. The weather: 35 degrees and cloudy with a chance of icy rain or even snow.

Offline Hootenany

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #825 on: January 11, 2010, 02:30:00 AM »
A well written article about the causes of global warming, the historical context, and climate drivers other than CO2.  Despite the title it is a good read, give it a chance Boreal!

The mini ice age starts here

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html

Like Prof Latif, Prof Tsonis is not a climate change ‘denier’. There is, he said, a measure of additional ‘background’ warming due to human activity and greenhouse gases that runs across the MDO cycles.

But he added: ‘I do not believe in catastrophe theories. Man-made warming is balanced by the natural cycles, and I do not trust the computer models which state that if CO2 reaches a particular level then temperatures and sea levels will rise by a given amount.

'These models cannot be trusted to predict the weather for a week, yet they are running them to give readings for 100 years.’
« Last Edit: January 11, 2010, 02:31:31 AM by Hootenany »

Offline Sherman Cahal

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #826 on: January 11, 2010, 03:01:33 AM »
Reminds me of the hype in the 1970s over the impending Ice Age, using the same data that is being used today. I can't find this article on UO, but it is interesting none the less...

Hacked E-Mails Fuel Global Warming Debate
By Kim Zetter, Wired, November 20, 2009

An online debate over global warming science has broken out after an unknown hacker broke into the e-mail server at a prominent, British climate-research center, stole more than a thousand e-mails about global warming research and posted them online.

Global warming skeptics are seizing on portions of the messages as evidence that scientists are colluding and warping data to fit the theory of global warming, but researchers say the e-mails are being taken out of context and just show scientists engaged in frank discussion.

[...]

The e-mails, which cover a decade of correspondence, are getting a lot of attention among bloggers who point to statements in them that they say suggest the scientists colluded and manipulated data to support their global warming viewpoints.

Read More http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/11/climate-hack/#ixzz0cJu7qf0l

Offline Boreas

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #827 on: January 11, 2010, 03:05:52 AM »
I did not find it to be interesting or complete.  There is not enough metering equipment in the seas to assess temperatures at 3000 foot depths  (another budget cut by the Cheney-bush oil men).  He cannot reliably claim that he has a contrary explanation of why the 1990s were so damn hot.
I'll believe in global warming when the oil companies tell me to.

Offline Sherman Cahal

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #828 on: January 11, 2010, 03:10:18 AM »
Or why the 1970s were so cold. Dad remembers when the Ohio River froze several times in the 1970s alone, and remembers it freezing in the 1950s several times. Those were the good 'ol snow days :)

Offline Hootenany

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #829 on: January 11, 2010, 03:32:12 AM »
I did not find it to be interesting or complete.  There is not enough metering equipment in the seas to assess temperatures at 3000 foot depths  (another budget cut by the Cheney-bush oil men).  He cannot reliably claim that he has a contrary explanation of why the 1990s were so damn hot.

If I read correctly the scientists he is quoting are claiming that multi-decadal oscillations (MDOs) represent up to 50% of the warming or cooling of the last century.  He claims, and is backed up by temperature records and first-hand accounts, that the 1910’s thru 1940’s were warmer than normal, 1950’s thru 1970’s were cooler than normal, 1980’s thru 2000’s were warmer than normal and now we should be heading into a time of cooler temperatures. 

Quote
But the effects are not confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Prof Anastasios Tsonis, head of the University of Wisconsin Atmospheric Sciences Group, has recently shown that these MDOs move together in a synchronised way across the globe, abruptly flipping the world’s climate from a ‘warm mode’ to a ‘cold mode’ and back again in 20 to 30-year cycles.

'They amount to massive rearrangements in the dominant patterns of the weather,’ he said yesterday, ‘and their shifts explain all the major changes in world temperatures during the 20th and 21st Centuries.

'We have such a change now and can therefore expect 20 or 30 years of cooler temperatures.’

The scientists that he interviewed are not global warming deniers or even skeptics.  They believe that there is a slight underlying warming of the globe brought about by the activities of man.  They simply believe, as I do, that the degree to which we impact the climate and the effects of a warmer climate are greatly exaggerated. 

Quote
William Gray, emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, said that while he believed there had been some background rise caused by greenhouse gases, the computer models used by advocates of man-made warming had hugely exaggerated their effect.

According to Prof Gray, these distort the way the atmosphere works. ‘Most of the rise in temperature from the Seventies to the Nineties was natural,’ he said. ‘Very little was down to CO2 – in my view, as little as five to ten per cent.’

The underlying point continues to be that while we do have an affect on the global climate we do not drive it and therefore cannot control it.  Any attempt to do so is a waste of energy IMO.

Offline Sherman Cahal

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #830 on: January 11, 2010, 03:46:04 AM »
I believe that a shift in our energy policy is needed (as I explained on Twitter), but the sudden shift that some desire just cannot happen. Thousands upon thousands of people rely on jobs derived from the coal industry, and you can't simply say, "that's it, we are done with coal. Good luck on your future ventures." People who make those statements have never traveled through the coalfields of WV or KY, or to anywhere less urban and less connected to popular media, and see how the real world actually operates.

Yeah, coal is bad, so let's remove it. It pollutes. But replace it with what? There are environmentalists that I work with that are hypocritical -- coal is bad, so let's move entirely to solar, wind, hydro and geothermal.

Wait, what not nuclear? It's clean, incredibly efficient and safe. But there are environmentalists that decry that and point to the other options. Solar is not optimal for much of the US, and it requires massive amounts of land. Wind kills birds and ruins views and is being hotly opposed in West Virginia. Hydro disrupts the migration of fish upstream. Geothermal is expensive and not feasible for much of the US.

Offline Hootenany

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #831 on: January 11, 2010, 04:06:56 AM »
^We agree on most of your points.  We will continue to use coal as long as it is cheap and plentiful which it will be in this country for at least 100 years.  We've taken amazing steps to reduce the amount of pollution emitted by coal-fired power plants and that effort continues.  The only pollution control method that I am fully against is CO2 sequestering because it is very expensive and provides little to no benefit.

I agree 100% that nuclear should be utilized more.  Solar and hydro have their obvious drawbacks (environmental, cost, and other), but wind the best alternative energy solution we have today.  Turbines do not kill huge numbers of birds as many have been led to believe.  I read somewhere while I was in college that a large 1.5 MW turbine will kill less birds a year than you will in your car on an average year.  This is because the turbines spin much slower compared to the old 1970's style turbines you might find in Nevada and California.

From treehugger.com nonetheless:  http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/04/common_misconce.php
Quote
In the United States, cars and trucks wipe out millions of birds each year, while 100 million to 1 billion birds collide with windows. According to the 2001 National Wind Coordinating Committee study, “Avian Collisions with Wind Turbines: A Summary of Existing Studies and Comparisons to Other Sources of Avian Collision Mortality in the United States," these non-wind mortalities compare with 2.19 bird deaths per turbine per year. That's a long way from the sum mortality caused by the other sources.


Or the "how stuff works" explanation:  http://science.howstuffworks.com/wind-turbine-kill-birds.htm

And locally from the Green Energy Ohio website:  http://www.greenenergyohio.org/page.cfm?pageId=116
« Last Edit: January 11, 2010, 04:09:37 AM by Hootenany »

Offline Boreas

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #832 on: January 11, 2010, 04:35:00 AM »
I believe that a shift in our energy policy is needed (as I explained on Twitter), but the sudden shift that some desire just cannot happen. Thousands upon thousands of people rely on jobs derived from the coal industry, and you can't simply say, "that's it, we are done with coal. Good luck on your future ventures." People who make those statements have never traveled through the coalfields of WV or KY, or to anywhere less urban and less connected to popular media, and see how the real world actually operates.
Author Ross Gelbspan suggested that special pensions be created for unemployed coal miners.  This is realistic: there are only about 50,000 coal miners in America.

Longshoremen were given special pensions when there were mass layoffs due to the automation of the shipping fleet (container ships were introduced).

I would extend the concept and fund job retraining so that they could start businesses or enter the new careers.


Yeah, coal is bad, so let's remove it. It pollutes. But replace it with what?
That is a huge topic.  Efficiency could cut electricity usage by more than 20% and that should all be applied to reduce coal fired generation.  Then, coal would supply about 30% of our electricity, not 50%. 

Solar on rooftops would generate a lot of energy during periods of peak use.  It would not require additional land or a distribution system.
I'll believe in global warming when the oil companies tell me to.

Offline Hootenany

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #833 on: January 11, 2010, 05:12:17 AM »
^You can't just shut off coal.  It's such an unrealistic vision no matter how you helped the laid off coal workers.  This is like asking Saudi Arabia to cap it's oil wells for "the greater good".  It will never happen and it's a waste of time to even talk about it.  Environmentalists should continue to work to make coal a more acceptable form of energy.

A bigger issue for environmentalists is this; why would the coal industry give any serious consideration to ideas put forth by a group whose stated goal is to shut down your industry?  If environmentalists want their ideas to be heard by those in the coal industry they need to tone down the rhetoric and work toward realistic solutions that are good for both parties.

Otherwise, I agree that solar panels on homes are a great idea and should be implemented where they make sense.  Decentralizing the grid would do wonders at reducing transmission losses and make the whole system inherently more efficient.

As a side note I have a number of 174,000 blue-collar coal jobs in the US of which 83,000 are miners.  This doesn't take into account the thousands of indirect jobs created by the coal industry as well.  Not a big deal, but the coal industry is responsible for significantly more than 50,000 jobs.

source:  http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Coal_and_jobs_in_the_United_States

Offline Boreas

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #834 on: January 11, 2010, 05:23:14 AM »


A bigger issue for environmentalists is this; why would the coal industry give any serious consideration to ideas put forth by a group whose stated goal is to shut down your industry?  If environmentalists want their ideas to be heard by those in the coal industry they need to tone down the rhetoric and work toward realistic solutions that are good for both parties.
No, the stated goal of the environmentalists are (1) habitat protection, (2) reduction of smog and particulate pollution, and (3) and 80% to 100% reduction in greenhouse gas production from fossil fuels.
I'll believe in global warming when the oil companies tell me to.

Offline Hootenany

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #835 on: January 11, 2010, 06:17:47 AM »
^The latter of which is impossible.  I love the first two goals, but the last is economically impossible and largely unnecessary (when it comes to CO2). 

If your stated goal is to reduce greenhouse gasses by 80-100% then your de facto goal is to shut down the coal industry as there is no other viable way to reduce their emissions by that amount.

Offline Sherman Cahal

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #836 on: January 11, 2010, 06:24:26 AM »
Or heavy industry in the U.S. as well. Unless you plan on having China shut down most of its manufacturing operations, there is no way you can achieve an overall goal of reducing carbon emissions by XX%.

Offline DanB

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #837 on: January 11, 2010, 06:25:03 AM »
No, the stated goal of the environmentalists are (1) habitat protection, (2) reduction of smog and particulate pollution, and (3) and 80% to 100% reduction in greenhouse gas production from fossil fuels.

You are so laughably naive!
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Offline Boreas

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #838 on: January 11, 2010, 08:37:11 AM »
Mojib Latif denies his research supports theory that current cold weather undermines scientific consensus on global warming

David Adam, environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Monday 11 January 2010 16.47 GMT

A leading scientist has hit out at misleading newspaper reports that linked his research to claims that the current cold weather undermines the scientific case for manmade global warming.

Mojib Latif, a climate expert at the Leibniz Institute at Kiel University in Germany, said he "cannot understand" reports that used his research to question the scientific consensus on climate change.

He told the Guardian: "It comes as a surprise to me that people would try to use my statements to try to dispute the nature of global warming. I believe in manmade global warming. I have said that if my name was not Mojib Latif it would be global warming."

He added: "There is no doubt within the scientific community that we are affecting the climate, that the climate is changing and responding to our emissions of greenhouse gases."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/11/climate-change-global-warming-mojib-latif
I'll believe in global warming when the oil companies tell me to.

Offline Hootenany

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #839 on: January 11, 2010, 11:03:12 AM »
^Sounds like an IPCC scientist trying to save his ass after having a quote printed that said something other than "there is a concensus regarding climate change in the scientific community" and "the debate is over."

One of his direct quotes:

Quote
‘A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 per cent.

'They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer.  The extreme retreats that we have seen in glaciers and sea ice will come to a halt. For the time being, global warming has paused, and there may well be some cooling.’

It must be so embarrassing for the IPCC to have one of its members saying such things!   :roll: