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It's wasteful to have each generation abandoning cities and building new ones elsewhere, and that's the story I see behind all this. These stats aren't just bad for Ohio, they're bad for America and the entire human race.Ohio can't mimic the sunbelt's climate, which I think is the primary "cool" factor it's had going for it. But through regionalism we can at least duplicate the governmental structure their metros (and Columbus) are using. A lot of our extra costs stem from supporting all these little governments. I have no doubt that lower taxes will help us lure investment. But instead of busting public sector unions, we need to be busting the political subdivisions they work for. And we need to consolidate counties as well as municipalities.But we also need to work on our cool factor in order to attract jobs. And like it says on the front page of this website, Ohio's secret weapon is its cities. We need to focus like a laser on making them marketable as cities. That means planning. It means more density, more transit, more attention paid to good architecture and aesthetics. Yes the latter bit is subjective but only kinda. And right now the political winds are blowing in the exact opposite direction. I call on everyone here to get more involved in local and state politics. This is getting out of hand and it's time for us to take over.
First, allow me to say that I am NOT celebrating the loss of population. A number of forums have expressed surprise. Those who know me may remember that I predicted that Cincinnati would be less than 300,000 in the 2010 Census. I think that the challenges to the Census were misinterpreted as a sign that Cincinnati was gaining population when Cincinnati was actually losing population. I based my prediction on continuation of the trends between 1980 and 1990, and between 1990 and 2000. A lot of attention is focused on the movement of people from one place to another. Indeed, the trends show that people are moving south and west, and from not only urban areas but also from rural areas to the suburbs. However, that's only part of the story. The other part is natural increase, or the difference between births and deaths. In Ohio, we still have more births than deaths, but not by much. To put it in more familiar terms, in 1950 it was common for families to have 5 children. I know several older relatives that came from families with 5 children or more. Going back even farther, it was common for families to have even more children - with 10 children per family in 1840 not being uncommon.Today, a family with 5 children is considered large, and somewhat rare. I can think of a few families of that size that I know personally, but not many. I know lots of families with one or two children. The stats on family size are a bit shocking. In 1950, the average family had 3.5 children. In Ohio today, it's more like 2.0. But keep in mind that that only counts families that have any kids at all - more and more people are having no kids, and I'm not sure if that is counted in the average.Would you believe that over 25% of all households in the United States have just ONE PERSON? There are singles, divorcees, widows, and widowers like never before. This is why neighborhoods that appear stable are often losing population. A typical house in 1950 had two parents and 3.5 kids, for an average population of around 5.5 per house. Smaller family size leads to smaller neighborhood population, assuming the same number of houses.Basicly, if a community is not adding new houses, they are losing population. If they are abandoning / demolishing houses without replacing them (even if they add more commercial buildings), then they are losing population even faster. The population formula is this:Population change = births - deaths + immigration - emigration. In Ohio, births are slightly more than deaths, but deaths are expected to become more than births by the next Census.In Ohio, immigration and emigration are both small compared to births and deaths. There are really only two ways to increase population in Ohio: increase the birth rate, or attract a lot of foreign immigrants. The immigration option is tricky, since it is no longer possible to attract immigrants that are already skilled and educated from developed countries because those countries are already losing population themselves. As for increasing the birth rate, I hear a lot of this: "I would like to have another child, but I can't afford it." No surprises here.
I haven't had the chance to read through all the latest comments on this, but I noticed a few people said Ohio's numbers should not be a surprise to anyone. I was shocked at the numbers; VERY shocked, and disappointed. Just when I was starting to feel optimistic about Cincinnati and the strides the city is making, I get a "1-2 punch." First the street car news and then the daunting population numbers. What happened to all the talk about the growth in Cincinnati? Some people were even claiming the population increased upwards to 350K. Even Mayor Mallory boasted on Undercover Boss about how the city is growing in population . I figured since he made a claim like that on national tv, then he must have based it off of concrete evidence. Dropping down to 296K is a pretty significant drop. Being that the population is now in the 200K range instead of 3 makes the decline look that much worse. I even look like an ass boasting to some of my family and friends in CT about the progress and "influx" of residents Cincinnati is seeing. My mom even sent me a text saying, "I thought u said Cincinnati was on the move?" I hate to be like other Ohioans who have bailed out on the state (which I vowed I wouldn't do), but at this point, I think my decision is made. I honestly do not feel the low cost of living outweighs the negative of this city and state and it seems like the declining trend will continue for a while. There have been several combining factors recently that have basically made me say "I can't take it anymore." Once I'm done with grad school, I'm out.HHS78
http://media.cleveland.com/metro/photo/10wg1acensusjpg-f6f521b5b0b769a5.jpgInteresting Cleveland map in the PD showing gain/loss by census tract. Surprised by the losses in what appears to be Clark/Fulton, where I had expected to see growth. In general the west side is more of a mixed bag than I had predicted. But there's also some undeniable turnaround beginning wth downtown and UC on the east side. http://media.cleveland.com/metro/photo/10cpcensusjpg-373428b818661613.jpgAnd here's the metro map.
So after the original shock, eh, whatever. So Cleveland has fewer than 400,000 residents? Eh, it really isn't the end of the world, and I seriously doubt it'll make a difference to the business community. So we lose a couple of twits like Kucinich and Fudge, so a few worthless councilmen are out of a job, it doesn't make a difference in the grand scheme of things. What, will Obama now campaign here less; will we yet again not get the DNC or RNC? These numbers are just ego and have no value in the real world outside of bragging rights.
Painesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!68.2% White 13.1% Black22.0% Hispanic (of any raceguess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total? Calling all statisticians!)
Quote from: eastvillagedon on March 10, 2011, 11:15:03 AMPainesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!68.2% White 13.1% Black22.0% Hispanic (of any race—guess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total? Calling all statisticians!)The Hispanic and Latino population always throws a wrench in the stats. I even do it sometimes. One day I might feel like marking Latino (Panamanian), most of the time I just mark black, and then other times I'll fill in multiracial or other. Many studies I had to do for my stats class were thrown off because of this mess, and people like me. Lol
Painesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!68.2% White 13.1% Black22.0% Hispanic (of any race—guess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total? Calling all statisticians!)
Quote from: HHS78 on March 10, 2011, 11:32:59 AMQuote from: eastvillagedon on March 10, 2011, 11:15:03 AMPainesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!68.2% White 13.1% Black22.0% Hispanic (of any race—guess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total? Calling all statisticians!)The Hispanic and Latino population always throws a wrench in the stats. I even do it sometimes. One day I might feel like marking Latino (Panamanian), most of the time I just mark black, and then other times I'll fill in multiracial or other. Many studies I had to do for my stats class were thrown off because of this mess, and people like me. LolI just quickly checked the Census figures from Painesville again, and it seems that 2,583 picked the category “Some Other Race,” and 872 chose “Two or More Races.” That seems like an unusually large number for a town of less that 20K! I demand a Congressional investigation and a recount! Lol Actually these days I know more and more people are identifying as more than one race. Maybe it's a good way to boost the figures for your town (then again, when I was growing up in there in the Middle Ages—the 60's—the only Hispanics were a handful of Puerto Ricans)
Quote from: HHS78 on March 10, 2011, 11:32:59 AMQuote from: eastvillagedon on March 10, 2011, 11:15:03 AMPainesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!68.2% White 13.1% Black22.0% Hispanic (of any raceguess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total? Calling all statisticians!)The Hispanic and Latino population always throws a wrench in the stats. I even do it sometimes. One day I might feel like marking Latino (Panamanian), most of the time I just mark black, and then other times I'll fill in multiracial or other. Many studies I had to do for my stats class were thrown off because of this mess, and people like me. LolI just quickly checked the Census figures from Painesville again, and it seems that 2,583 picked the category Some Other Race, and 872 chose Two or More Races. That seems like an unusually large number for a town of less that 20K! I demand a Congressional investigation and a recount! Lol Actually these days I know more and more people are identifying as more than one race. Maybe it's a good way to boost the figures for your town (then again, when I was growing up in there in the Middle Agesthe 60'sthe only Hispanics were a handful of Puerto Ricans)
Quote from: eastvillagedon on March 10, 2011, 11:15:03 AMPainesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!68.2% White 13.1% Black22.0% Hispanic (of any raceguess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total? Calling all statisticians!)The Hispanic and Latino population always throws a wrench in the stats. I even do it sometimes. One day I might feel like marking Latino (Panamanian), most of the time I just mark black, and then other times I'll fill in multiracial or other. Many studies I had to do for my stats class were thrown off because of this mess, and people like me. Lol
For the past year , it has been assumed amongst many of the city planning elite in cleveland that our census number would come in closer to 330,000. For most in the field , this new census figure is a good sign that things have bottomed out and are stabilizing.
^ They sent out census workers to get all the households that didn't mail in their sheets. If you don't send it and the census workers don't talk to you, you're not counted.
I hate to be like other Ohioans who have bailed out on the state (which I vowed I wouldn't do), but at this point, I think my decision is made. I honestly do not feel the low cost of living outweighs the negative of this city and state and it seems like the declining trend will continue for a while. There have been several combining factors recently that have basically made me say "I can't take it anymore." Once I'm done with grad school, I'm out.HHS78
Quote from: HHS78 on March 10, 2011, 06:40:00 AMI hate to be like other Ohioans who have bailed out on the state (which I vowed I wouldn't do), but at this point, I think my decision is made. I honestly do not feel the low cost of living outweighs the negative of this city and state and it seems like the declining trend will continue for a while. There have been several combining factors recently that have basically made me say "I can't take it anymore." Once I'm done with grad school, I'm out.HHS78 As someone who was counted in the Cleveland numbers in 2000 but was counted in Seattle in 2010 let me speak from experience.I had a very similar attitude and left Cleveland in 2002. For myself, leaving Cleveland was the absolute best decision I ever made. Living in a city that's been in a downward spiral for the last 60 years just wasn't appealing to me. I would have loved to stay and support Cleveland, however I didn't want to waste the next 30 years living with that constant "maybe next year things will get better" attitude. Things won't get better. Not in our lifetime. Look at the numbers, they are getting WORSE. Don't let yourself be disillusioned that a city like Cleveland or Cincinnati is about to turn the corner. If you want to stay and help, then go for it! Some people are built that way, I wasn't. Personally I love living in a progressive and on the rise city.But to me the biggest difference are the attitudes. I can't really put into words the attitude difference. It's something you'll have to experience for yourself. There's not a day I look back and regret the move out west. You owe it to yourself to give it a try, you don't want to live the rest of your life thinking "what if".To each his own! If it doesn't work out you can always move back!