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Offline Cleburger

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #315 on: March 10, 2011, 06:48:43 AM »
It's wasteful to have each generation abandoning cities and building new ones elsewhere, and that's the story I see behind all this.  These stats aren't just bad for Ohio, they're bad for America and the entire human race.

Ohio can't mimic the sunbelt's climate, which I think is the primary "cool" factor it's had going for it.  But through regionalism we can at least duplicate the governmental structure their metros (and Columbus) are using.  A lot of our extra costs stem from supporting all these little governments.  I have no doubt that lower taxes will help us lure investment.  But instead of busting public sector unions, we need to be busting the political subdivisions they work for.  And we need to consolidate counties as well as municipalities.

But we also need to work on our cool factor in order to attract jobs.  And like it says on the front page of this website, Ohio's secret weapon is its cities.  We need to focus like a laser on making them marketable as cities.  That means planning.  It means more density, more transit, more attention paid to good architecture and aesthetics.  Yes the latter bit is subjective but only kinda. 

And right now the political winds are blowing in the exact opposite direction.  I call on everyone here to get more involved in local and state politics.  This is getting out of hand and it's time for us to take over. 

327 makes a very valid point here on an issue that I see as more often than not an American problem.  How is it that we spent our money rebuilding devastated European cities in the 1940's, but we walk away from our own right here at home?    There are problems of suburbia and sprawl in other countries, but it never seems to be at the complete expense of the cities that form the core of their region. 

My fear is this current divided political climate will only serve to hasten this process even more as the suburban constituencies grow more powerful against the less active inner-ring politicians and their citizens.  We don't have to look much further than Ohio to see this happening daily.

Offline CBC

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Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #316 on: March 10, 2011, 06:58:22 AM »

First, allow me to say that I am NOT celebrating the loss of population.

A number of forums have expressed surprise. Those who know me may remember that I predicted that Cincinnati would be less than 300,000 in the 2010 Census. I think that the challenges to the Census were misinterpreted as a sign that Cincinnati was gaining population when Cincinnati was actually losing population. I based my prediction on continuation of the trends between 1980 and 1990, and between 1990 and 2000.

A lot of attention is focused on the movement of people from one place to another. Indeed, the trends show that people are moving south and west, and from not only urban areas but also from rural areas to the suburbs. However, that's only part of the story. The other part is natural increase, or the difference between births and deaths. In Ohio, we still have more births than deaths, but not by much.

To put it in more familiar terms, in 1950 it was common for families to have 5 children. I know several older relatives that came from families with 5 children or more. Going back even farther, it was common for families to have even more children - with 10 children per family in 1840 not being uncommon.

Today, a family with 5 children is considered large, and somewhat rare. I can think of a few families of that size that I know personally, but not many. I know lots of families with one or two children.

The stats on family size are a bit shocking. In 1950, the average family had 3.5 children. In Ohio today, it's more like 2.0. But keep in mind that that only counts families that have any kids at all - more and more people are having no kids, and I'm not sure if that is counted in the average.

Would you believe that over 25% of all households in the United States have just ONE PERSON? There are singles, divorcees, widows, and widowers like never before. This is why neighborhoods that appear stable are often losing population. A typical house in 1950 had two parents and 3.5 kids, for an average population of around 5.5 per house. Smaller family size leads to smaller neighborhood population, assuming the same number of houses.

Basicly, if a community is not adding new houses, they are losing population. If they are abandoning / demolishing houses without replacing them (even if they add more commercial buildings), then they are losing population even faster.

The population formula is this:

Population change = births - deaths + immigration - emigration.

In Ohio, births are slightly more than deaths, but deaths are expected to become more than births by the next Census.

In Ohio, immigration and emigration are both small compared to births and deaths.

There are really only two ways to increase population in Ohio: increase the birth rate, or attract a lot of foreign immigrants. The immigration option is tricky, since it is no longer possible to attract immigrants that are already skilled and educated from developed countries because those countries are already losing population themselves. As for increasing the birth rate, I hear a lot of this: "I would like to have another child, but I can't afford it."

No surprises here.
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Offline ColDayMan

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #317 on: March 10, 2011, 07:15:55 AM »
I haven't had the chance to read through all the latest comments on this, but I noticed a few people said Ohio's numbers should not be a surprise to anyone. I was shocked at the numbers; VERY shocked, and disappointed. Just when I was starting to feel optimistic about Cincinnati and the strides the city is making, I get a "1-2 punch." First the street car news and then the daunting population numbers.

What happened to all the talk about the growth in Cincinnati? Some people were even claiming the population increased upwards to 350K. Even Mayor Mallory boasted on Undercover Boss about how the city is growing in population . I figured since he made a claim like that on national tv, then he must have based it off of concrete evidence.

Dropping down to 296K is a pretty significant drop. Being that the population is now in the 200K range instead of 3 makes the decline look that much worse. I even look like an ass boasting to some of my family and friends in CT about the progress and "influx" of residents Cincinnati is seeing. My mom even sent me a text saying, "I thought u said Cincinnati was on the move?"

I hate to be like other Ohioans who have bailed out on the state (which I vowed I wouldn't do), but at this point, I think my decision is made. I honestly do not feel the low cost of living outweighs the negative of this city and state and it seems like the declining trend will continue for a while. There have been several combining factors recently that have basically made me say "I can't take it anymore." Once I'm done with grad school, I'm out.

HHS78

You know it is possible the city did grow from 2005 and the mayor being correct.  This takes into ten years of history.  In theory, if Cincinnati gained population between 2005-2010 but lost a greater percentage of people between 2000-2005, then it would still show a loss.  Yet, the city could very well still be growing.  You won't see that result until the 2020 Census.  If you are bailing out due to Census loses, then I don't know what old urban city you'd go to except for, well, Philadelphia (which barely gained, though that's still wonderful), San Francisco, Washington, and likely New York.  Everybody else lost.  Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis, etc.  Even Dallas and Los Angeles gained minimally.  But hey, if you want growth, you could always move to Oklahoma City or North Carolina!
I love it when people come into a message board and immediately begin to mix it up.  I mean, Jesus, at least say hello!  Do you walk into a room full of strangers, pick a random woman, and tell her she's fat? - buildingcincinnati

Offline Hts121

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #318 on: March 10, 2011, 07:21:14 AM »
Be part of the problem or part of the solution.  Your choice.  I hear Mexico City is still growing if that is the criteria you use to pick your residence.
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Offline HHS78

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #319 on: March 10, 2011, 07:36:32 AM »
^I could never do Mexico City, too hot there. But I'm actually probably moving to Philly, or back to New England (Providence, RI) which is not growing btw, but I love it there, and it's not too expensive. I would love to move to Boston, but it's out of my price range, so I've narrowed it down to Philly or Providence.

Offline Sherman Cahal

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #320 on: March 10, 2011, 07:53:52 AM »
I haven't had the chance to read through all the latest comments on this, but I noticed a few people said Ohio's numbers should not be a surprise to anyone. I was shocked at the numbers; VERY shocked, and disappointed. Just when I was starting to feel optimistic about Cincinnati and the strides the city is making, I get a "1-2 punch." First the street car news and then the daunting population numbers.

What happened to all the talk about the growth in Cincinnati? Some people were even claiming the population increased upwards to 350K. Even Mayor Mallory boasted on Undercover Boss about how the city is growing in population . I figured since he made a claim like that on national tv, then he must have based it off of concrete evidence.

Dropping down to 296K is a pretty significant drop. Being that the population is now in the 200K range instead of 3 makes the decline look that much worse. I even look like an ass boasting to some of my family and friends in CT about the progress and "influx" of residents Cincinnati is seeing. My mom even sent me a text saying, "I thought u said Cincinnati was on the move?"

I hate to be like other Ohioans who have bailed out on the state (which I vowed I wouldn't do), but at this point, I think my decision is made. I honestly do not feel the low cost of living outweighs the negative of this city and state and it seems like the declining trend will continue for a while. There have been several combining factors recently that have basically made me say "I can't take it anymore." Once I'm done with grad school, I'm out.

HHS78

Bye then.

Or you could be like others, and make a change for the city. Sure, your contribution alone won't help push Cincinnati back over 300,000 right now, but every change is appreciated and noted. I just purchased a house in Northside, Cincinnati. Why? I'd like to contribute to the upward change in this vibrant and eccentric neighborhood, even as I am surrounded by abandoned, foreclosed and rental properties. Just the very sight of the bright yellow townhouse on the street, with its new roof, lights blaring inside and the vibrancy of activity is enough that we've made a lot of new friends in the past several weeks. People have just come up and knocked and told us just how great it was to find new people who bought into the city, rather than rented from an out-of-state property whore. And we've met people who have just walked through our yard (it is a convenient cut-off in the street grid) and thought our house was abandoned! (It was a crack house for years.)

It's enough energy that I'm sticking around for at least the next 5 years and longer. New renovations are going on down the street, a new school (montessori) is popping up on the hill, and I have 10 years of tax abatement to sit on. So what that Cincinnati lost 10% of its population? I'm making a change, are you?

Offline rockandroller

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #321 on: March 10, 2011, 07:56:31 AM »
I think this has been very interesting to read and you all have so many good points, it's hard to even comment.  but from that one, scrolling list that WestBLVD posted a couple of pages ago, just from a glance it seems to me that the thing that all the big gaining cities/burbs have in common and the thing that the biggest losing cities have in common are SCHOOLS. Those cities making the big gains are getting very good reports on their school systems and they are getting better each year - Strongsville, N Royalton, etc, while Cleveland schools continue to get worse.

I don't presume to have any answers or solutions, but I really think schools play into this in SUCH a big way. There is no way families are going to move back to any urban area or even inner ring suburbs just out of "love" for the city core and at the cost of their kid's education or safety at school.

That being said, I think the point about general shrinkage of families should be taken into account as well, but these numbers should be weighed against other numbers across the country. The shrinkage of families making numbers go down as there are less people total argument is only relevant if it's happening EVERYWHERE, and I suspect that the South and West are growing while we are declining, so I don't know if that's a valid point or not.

Offline ClevelandOhio

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #322 on: March 10, 2011, 08:12:06 AM »
Schools are a huge issue. Its hard to get people to settle down in urban areas who plan on having children. Private schools cost to much for most people. Its a tough challenge to overcome, the more involved parents in the area will help the schools tremendously but its hard to find people who want to have their kids be the pioneers. For Cleveland, hopefully the elementary school in Tremont continues to improve, the CSU elementary school continues to expand, and John Hay High School continues to improve. This will at least begin to give residents a choice that doesn't cost a fortune and isn't in horrible shape.

Offline cd-cleveland

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #323 on: March 10, 2011, 08:32:56 AM »
http://media.cleveland.com/metro/photo/10wg1acensusjpg-f6f521b5b0b769a5.jpg

Interesting Cleveland map in the PD showing gain/loss by census tract.  Surprised by the losses in what appears to be Clark/Fulton, where I had expected to see growth.  In general the west side is more of a mixed bag than I had predicted.  But there's also some undeniable turnaround beginning wth downtown and UC on the east side.

http://media.cleveland.com/metro/photo/10cpcensusjpg-373428b818661613.jpg

And here's the metro map.

Many portions of the Central neighborhood of Cleveland saw some growth in population. 
« Last Edit: March 10, 2011, 08:34:33 AM by cd-cleveland »

Offline HHS78

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #324 on: March 10, 2011, 08:35:20 AM »
I was waiting for a snarky response. I actually do volunteer a lot of my time here in Cincinnati. I volunteer a lot of time in OTR, a little at SCPA, the "Y", sometimes at Elementz and in the summer I teach a swimming class. In the latchkey program I'm involved in OTR, I mainly just play basketball or run with the kids, and talk to them about taking education seriously and trying to encourage them to be more receptive to school. I love doing it, but at times I say to myself, "why are no other black males trying to help out the community."  It feels like I'm running in place sometimes, especially when one of the kids you mentor goes out and gets killed.

The population decline is not really the main reason why I will probably leave. It's just that I miss the vibrancy, culture, and energy of the northeast.

But as someone mentioned, schools play a very big part of the overall welfare of a city. A lot of parents do not want to, or are even afraid to send their kids to Cincinnati Public Schools which is showing to not be helping the city one bit.

What baffles me is how afraid many suburbanites here are afraid of Cincinnati. It's ridiculous, really! I constantly hear people talking about how bad and "dangerous" the city is. I also get sick of the disgusting responses I get from coworkers when they find out I live in Madisonville. If someone is deathly afraid of stepping foot in Cincinnati, then urban living is probably certainly not for you.

Cincinnati is a great city, but it's the people here who make it what it is...

[end rant]
« Last Edit: March 10, 2011, 08:39:07 AM by HHS78 »

Online TBideon

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #325 on: March 10, 2011, 08:56:38 AM »
So after the original shock, eh, whatever.  So Cleveland has fewer than 400,000 residents?  Eh, it really isn't the end of the world, and I seriously doubt it'll make a difference to the business community.  So we lose a couple of twits like Kucinich and Fudge, so a few worthless councilmen are out of a job, it doesn't make a difference in the grand scheme of things.  What, will Obama now campaign here less; will we yet again not get the DNC or RNC? These numbers are just ego and have no value in the real world outside of bragging rights.

 

Online TMH

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #326 on: March 10, 2011, 11:05:46 AM »
To HHS78, there is a saying - "The darkest hour is just before the dawn."  I live in Cleveland and the census results are certainly not what I would have liked to see.  However, there is a "strange" feeling in Cleveland.  People are starting to look to the future with anticipation, instead of dread. We see a change in the local economy, moving away from total reliance on manufacturing to a broadening which is being fueled by Biotech/medical, software development, etc.  We are witnessing an incredible growth in population for many of our neighborhoods which would have been unheard of 30 years ago.  Cleveland never had a significant population downtown, but now it is over 12000!  The national housing bubble has burst and I truly think that the Great Lakes and Midwest will begin to catch up.

In Cincinnati I know similar changes are taking place.  I lived in Cincinnati many years ago.  I got my Masters from UC and it is a great city.  "The darkest hour is always just before the dawn." 
« Last Edit: March 10, 2011, 11:12:11 AM by TMH »

Offline dmerkow

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #327 on: March 10, 2011, 11:13:35 AM »
If Mallory wouldn't have challenged the census estimates this wouldn't have come as such a surprise, they were estimating in the 310s at mid-decade. He did it to break a narrative that was developing, but it made the hard numbers that much harder to accept and now he looks the fool.

Offline eastvillagedon

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #328 on: March 10, 2011, 11:15:03 AM »
Painesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!

68.2% White
13.1% Black
22.0% Hispanic (of any race—guess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total?  Calling all statisticians!)
« Last Edit: March 10, 2011, 11:23:00 AM by eastvillagedon »

Offline StrapHanger

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #329 on: March 10, 2011, 11:30:32 AM »
So after the original shock, eh, whatever.  So Cleveland has fewer than 400,000 residents?  Eh, it really isn't the end of the world, and I seriously doubt it'll make a difference to the business community.  So we lose a couple of twits like Kucinich and Fudge, so a few worthless councilmen are out of a job, it doesn't make a difference in the grand scheme of things.  What, will Obama now campaign here less; will we yet again not get the DNC or RNC? These numbers are just ego and have no value in the real world outside of bragging rights.

That's mostly where I am too.  I care about the fiscal health of individual municipalities so they can continue to deliver services, but not so much about population counts per se.  I care about aggregate regional population for exactly one reason: to keep our pro sports franchises viable.  It's silly, but as a big Indians fan, their TV contract and attendance matter to me.  But otherwise, I just can't get that excited by population counts.   I'd like there to be a critical mass of people with similar interests and tastes to provide an adequate customer base for the types of restaurants, bars, stores and services that interest me, but by those metrics, things actually seem to be improving in Cleveland. 

For what it's worth, I'm highly skeptical of any specific predictions about plateaus or bottoms to City of Cleveland's population loss.  As long as comparatively intact suburban areas are incredibly affordable and have lots of vacancy (which is still the case), the flow of people out of distressed core city neighborhoods, particularly those households with above-poverty income, will continue.  Yeah, there will be some backfill of "urban by choice" residents in some of the most desirable neighborhoods, a trickle of immigration will continue, and there will continue to be some subsidized production of new housing (as in Central), but I don't think that will be nearly enough to overcome the continue outflow for the near future.  I don't think this is good news by any stretch, but it will certainly offer some opportunities for reinvention.
"Cleveland, as you see, is not an apple, but a bunch of grapes each of which has its own particular pattern-some large, others small, some round, others long and narrow, some sweet, others sour, some sound, others rotten throughout."  -Howard Whipple Green, 1932

Offline HHS78

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #330 on: March 10, 2011, 11:32:59 AM »
Painesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!

68.2% White
13.1% Black
22.0% Hispanic (of any race—guess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total?  Calling all statisticians!)
The Hispanic and Latino population always throws a wrench in the stats. I even do it sometimes. One day I might feel like marking Latino (Panamanian), most of the time I just mark black, and then other times I'll fill in multiracial or other.

Many studies I had to do for my stats class were thrown off because of this mess, and people like me. Lol
« Last Edit: March 10, 2011, 11:34:47 AM by HHS78 »

Offline Eighth and State

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #331 on: March 10, 2011, 11:40:08 AM »
"(excuse me, The Village of Indian Hill)"

 Make that the City of The Village of Indian Hill.

If the population of the City of The Village of Indian Hill ever falls below a certain number, will it become the Village of The Village of Indian Hill?  :-D

Online TBideon

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #332 on: March 10, 2011, 11:41:20 AM »
Damn straight THM and HHS, who gives a sh!t about the census when you think about it.  Even knowing there was a ton of population decline, Cleveland still has massive investments, in particular the University Circle area, that are just remarkable, especially in this Depression.  Anyone really think that Gilbert wasn't aware of population loss when he committed 100s of millions to the city.     

Politically, we, Cleveland at least, are finally on are way to a far less corrupt body as well - the bad guys are out, at least the worst of them.  That can't be overstated enough; there is finally a political body that isn't as damaged as the sociopaths who've been running the joint the last 15 years. 

And as to the census  winners, sure Vegas gained an amazing number of people the last decade.  And their economy is a$$.  And I guarantee you guys those numbers are currently crap as there is a huge exodus from Sin City, with enough stalled projects to make Dubai go hah hah..  They have zip momentum so who cares about their population a year ago - it indicates sh!t.  On a practical level, it is meaningless, especially when you look at the longterm picture.

And yeah I'm playing cheerleader here a bit, but I think it's kind of needed to balance all this doom and gloom the past 24 hrs since we learned something that isn't surprising really and doest change on thing definitely

Offline eastvillagedon

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #333 on: March 10, 2011, 11:53:00 AM »
Painesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!

68.2% White
13.1% Black
22.0% Hispanic (of any race—guess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total?  Calling all statisticians!)
The Hispanic and Latino population always throws a wrench in the stats. I even do it sometimes. One day I might feel like marking Latino (Panamanian), most of the time I just mark black, and then other times I'll fill in multiracial or other.

Many studies I had to do for my stats class were thrown off because of this mess, and people like me. Lol

I just quickly checked the Census figures from Painesville again, and it seems that 2,583 picked the category “Some Other Race,” and 872 chose “Two or More Races.” That seems like an unusually large number for a town of less that 20K! I demand a Congressional investigation and a recount! Lol Actually these days I know more and more people are identifying as more than one race. Maybe it's a good way to boost the figures for your town :wink: (then again, when I was growing up in there in the Middle Ages—the 60's—the only Hispanics were a handful of Puerto Ricans)

Offline HHS78

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #334 on: March 10, 2011, 12:19:39 PM »
Painesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!

68.2% White
13.1% Black
22.0% Hispanic (of any race—guess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total?  Calling all statisticians!)
The Hispanic and Latino population always throws a wrench in the stats. I even do it sometimes. One day I might feel like marking Latino (Panamanian), most of the time I just mark black, and then other times I'll fill in multiracial or other.

Many studies I had to do for my stats class were thrown off because of this mess, and people like me. Lol

I just quickly checked the Census figures from Painesville again, and it seems that 2,583 picked the category “Some Other Race,” and 872 chose “Two or More Races.” That seems like an unusually large number for a town of less that 20K! I demand a Congressional investigation and a recount! Lol Actually these days I know more and more people are identifying as more than one race. Maybe it's a good way to boost the figures for your town :wink: (then again, when I was growing up in there in the Middle Ages—the 60's—the only Hispanics were a handful of Puerto Ricans)

Yep! It's the cool thing to do now. :mrgreen:

Offline 3231

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #335 on: March 10, 2011, 02:33:56 PM »
For the past year , it has been assumed amongst many of the city planning elite in cleveland that our census number would come in closer to 330,000. For most in the field , this new census figure is a good sign that things have bottomed out and are stabilizing.
Urban Plan like a champion today.

Offline gbk0114

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #336 on: March 10, 2011, 08:45:01 PM »
Painesville's population increases by over 2K to 19,563; in large part no doubt due to a large influx of Mexicans ˇAy caramba!

68.2% White
13.1% Black
22.0% Hispanic (of any race—guess there's a little crossover into the other races, which explains the over 100% total?  Calling all statisticians!)
The Hispanic and Latino population always throws a wrench in the stats. I even do it sometimes. One day I might feel like marking Latino (Panamanian), most of the time I just mark black, and then other times I'll fill in multiracial or other.

Many studies I had to do for my stats class were thrown off because of this mess, and people like me. Lol

I just quickly checked the Census figures from Painesville again, and it seems that 2,583 picked the category “Some Other Race,” and 872 chose “Two or More Races.” That seems like an unusually large number for a town of less that 20K! I demand a Congressional investigation and a recount! Lol Actually these days I know more and more people are identifying as more than one race. Maybe it's a good way to boost the figures for your town :wink: (then again, when I was growing up in there in the Middle Ages—the 60's—the only Hispanics were a handful of Puerto Ricans)

Once the more detailed data sets are released, you'll be able to get a complete breakdown, which will add up to 100 percent when you look at the "white/black/asian/etc. alone" categories. But with these general numbers, they count people in several different categories. And it's not at all surprising that a city with a high Hispanic/Latino population adds up well over 100 percent, because about 90 percent of Latino/Hispanics are lumped into the "White" category. Another 10 or so percent may also be lumped into the "black" category.

Once the detailed sets come out, Painesville's hispanic population will remain where it is now (because they stand alone but also get lumped into white/black categories), but you'll see a very sharp decrease in white alone and black alone categories. ... The same can be said about people who marked multi-race.... they are getting counted in any race they marked on top of the multi-race category. But once the "alone" numbers are out, it will even out.

I'm just guessing on this, but I could see Painesville, when the "alone" details are released, coming in around
50 percent (white alone)
10 percent (black alone)
22 percent (hispanic)
10 percent (other ... this group, from what I've been able to gather is mainly hispanics who aren't either Mexican, Puerto Rican or Cuban; or people who are illegals (largly Mexican) who are wary about the census being a deportation tool)
8 percent (multi-race)
I left Asian out, because I don't believe Painesville has much of a population there.

If you are a fan of diversity, though, be proud that Painesville's numbers add up to over 100 percent. That's something that only diverse cities have to worry about. In Ohio, only Lorain (and Cleveland to a lesser exent) have had numbers like that. But look at some of the cities in the NYC or LA metros. I've seen some that added up to close to 150 percent!

Offline Hts121

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #337 on: March 11, 2011, 02:29:55 AM »
For the past year , it has been assumed amongst many of the city planning elite in cleveland that our census number would come in closer to 330,000. For most in the field , this new census figure is a good sign that things have bottomed out and are stabilizing.

I had heard/read the same as to expectations
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Offline CBC

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #338 on: March 11, 2011, 02:50:39 AM »
Been tied up since these numbers came out. Nothing surprising. Our country is not growing by current citizens, its growing by immigration so until Ohio can start attracting immigrants, this is what we will face.
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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #339 on: March 11, 2011, 03:58:39 AM »
I'm starting to take the "who cares?" attitude too. At least in Toledo's case, it wasn't some large-scale flight to other parts of the metro area. Most of the suburbs and satellite cities lost people too. While Michigan's numbers aren't in yet (probably can assume growth in Monroe County), as a whole, the metro area's sprawl has slowed to a halt. I find that very encouraging and I think it backs up my theory that attitudes are changing in Toledo. The city has potential for urban recovery once the economy recovers. Everybody around here is saying the same thing, "The economy is a nightmare, all the young people are leaving. Fix that and we'll stop the bleeding."

I'm happy the city came in over my estimate of 285,000. Don't get me wrong, falling below 300k and dropping to a population of 287,208 is bad, but not as bad as the economy made everyone in Toledo fear it would be. I'm with Mayor Mike Bell. His quote sums it up best. Most Toledoans are happy it wasn't worse:

"Actually I'm glad we didn't lose more people. And compared to all the Ohio cities I've seen listed in the top 20, we didn't do that bad, from the standpoint of being a metropolitan city."- Mike Bell
« Last Edit: March 11, 2011, 04:11:12 AM by C-Dawg »

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #340 on: March 11, 2011, 04:37:51 AM »
The politicians around Toledo are being very realistic:

...The area population losses didn't surprise Lucas County Commissioner Peter Gerken, who actually anticipated a steeper decline and called the losses part of the story of the last 10 years in America. While counties such as Franklin and Delaware had government and university jobs to help fuel their rapid growths, the Toledo area went through the decline of the automobile industry. Then, the recession hit.

He said county leaders saw the drops coming, and have been working to stem the tide.

"We knew that kids were leaving because there weren't jobs," Gerken said.

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2011/03/10/Population-of-Toledo-falls-to-287-208.html
« Last Edit: March 11, 2011, 04:44:50 AM by C-Dawg »

Offline skorasaurus

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #341 on: March 11, 2011, 04:59:59 AM »
^ They sent out census workers to get all the households that didn't mail in their sheets. If you don't send it and the census workers don't talk to you, you're not counted.

I can't speak officially on behalf of the census, this was not the case in my experience visiting households in Old Brooklyn and Tremont, that were reported to not have sent in their census form,  for the 2010 census. 

A census worker had visited a house at least 3 times before trying other methods of getting a count [asking a neighbor whether anyone lived there, when would be a good time to visit, etc, and calling the property owner]. There were a couple places that I visited over a dozen times [my record was 18] before I finally found a household resident and conduct the interview.

For the households whose residents refused to participate, other census workers would visit a few more times, and if they continued to refuse [in most cases, these people eventually agreed to give at least a count], then they would try the other methods of getting a count. In the instances that we were relatively sure that the house was occupied and weren't able to get a count for the household, I heard there was a formula that the census office would use to approximately count.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2011, 05:03:07 AM by skorasaurus »

Offline I Went West

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #342 on: March 11, 2011, 06:39:56 AM »
I hate to be like other Ohioans who have bailed out on the state (which I vowed I wouldn't do), but at this point, I think my decision is made. I honestly do not feel the low cost of living outweighs the negative of this city and state and it seems like the declining trend will continue for a while. There have been several combining factors recently that have basically made me say "I can't take it anymore." Once I'm done with grad school, I'm out.
HHS78

As someone who was counted in the Cleveland numbers in 2000 but was counted in Seattle in 2010 let me speak from experience.

I had a very similar attitude and left Cleveland in 2002. For myself, leaving Cleveland was the absolute best decision I ever made. Living in a city that's been in a downward spiral for the last 60 years just wasn't appealing to me. I would have loved to stay and support Cleveland, however I didn't want to waste the next 30 years living with that constant "maybe next year things will get better" attitude. Things won't get better. Not in our lifetime. Look at the numbers, they are getting WORSE.

Don't let yourself be disillusioned that a city like Cleveland or Cincinnati is about to turn the corner. If you want to stay and help, then go for it! Some people are built that way, I wasn't. Personally I love living in a progressive and on the rise city.

But to me the biggest difference are the attitudes. I can't really put into words the attitude difference.  It's something you'll have to experience for yourself. There's not a day I look back and regret the move out west. You owe it to yourself to give it a try, you don't want to live the rest of your life thinking "what if".

To each his own! If it doesn't work out you can always move back!

« Last Edit: March 11, 2011, 08:27:54 AM by I Went West »

Offline Hts121

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #343 on: March 11, 2011, 06:49:50 AM »
That's right.  You can always move back from one of these "growing" areas.  I did.  It was the absolute best decision of my life.
It does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are twenty gods or no God. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg - Thomas Jefferson

Offline Jeffery

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #344 on: March 11, 2011, 07:32:41 AM »
More census news, but not population.....

Dayton Leading Region in Vacancies

As of last April, when the 2010 Census was taken, Dayton had more than 20 percent of its housing units vacant, according to the new data, released Wednesday. A total of 15,661 houses, condos and apartments in Dayton were vacant.

The city also showed an 8.3 percentage-point growth in its vacancy rate, up from 12.8 percent in 2000 to reach 21.1 percent in 2010....

....And that’s despite a loss since 2000 of 3,256 housing units, or 4.2 percent of its housing stock.


Didn't know these vacancy numbers have been released.  How does the other Ohio cities show?  Or do y'all dare look!

But wait!  Theres More!

WPAFB Drives Housing Boom Near Base

“There’s a high percentage of people living in Beavercreek who are either retired, are active duty, or a civilian or contractor, or something to do with Wright-Patterson,” Buddelmeyer said. “Once they get here, they really like it. It’s got everything for raising a family.”

That’s why Ian Chadrick, 26, moved his family in 2008 from Dayton.

“We have little kids going into school and wanted a good school district,” Chadrick said.








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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #345 on: March 11, 2011, 08:21:35 AM »
Sweet Maria, why is there still a suburban housing boom around Dayton with that kind of vacancy rate and destruction?

Offline jjakucyk

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #346 on: March 11, 2011, 08:23:26 AM »
There's actually situations where sprawling growth can be worse in stagnant or declining cities because it's the only way the building industry can stay in business. 

Offline ColDayMan

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #347 on: March 11, 2011, 08:26:46 AM »
^Bingo.
I love it when people come into a message board and immediately begin to mix it up.  I mean, Jesus, at least say hello!  Do you walk into a room full of strangers, pick a random woman, and tell her she's fat? - buildingcincinnati

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #348 on: March 11, 2011, 09:31:12 AM »
To I Went West:  I do not want to get into a "my town is better than yours" argument, but I just returned home to Cleveland from Seattle, (Seattle to Chicago UA732, then Chicago to Cleveland UA570).  I have been flying to Seattle almost once a month for the last 14 years.  Without getting into specifics I strongly prefer Cleveland.  My point with this post has to do with my cab ride from the airport to my condo downtown.

The cab driver heard that I just returned from Seattle and he told me that after graduating from CSU he was considering moving there.  After we talked it was apparent that it had to do with the constant glorifying of Seattle and denigrating of Cleveland by the media.  When the conversation ended it was apparent that he loved it here in Cleveland and his family was happy.

Here was a young man who appeared to be an immigrant from Africa. I am basing that judgment from his accent and he told me he spoke 7 languages.  He told me he constantly hears on TV and radio how places like Seattle are so great and filled with opportunities, and Cleveland "Sucks".  He was shocked to hear that the greater Cleveland Area had a lower unemployment rate than Seattle as of the latest Dec. unemployment postings by the government. 

http://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm

To improve our population numbers, we somehow have to get the truth about our region out to the public.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2011, 01:19:41 PM by TMH »

Offline jbcmh81

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Re: Ohio: Census 2010 News & Discussion
« Reply #349 on: March 11, 2011, 01:45:46 PM »
I hate to be like other Ohioans who have bailed out on the state (which I vowed I wouldn't do), but at this point, I think my decision is made. I honestly do not feel the low cost of living outweighs the negative of this city and state and it seems like the declining trend will continue for a while. There have been several combining factors recently that have basically made me say "I can't take it anymore." Once I'm done with grad school, I'm out.
HHS78

As someone who was counted in the Cleveland numbers in 2000 but was counted in Seattle in 2010 let me speak from experience.

I had a very similar attitude and left Cleveland in 2002. For myself, leaving Cleveland was the absolute best decision I ever made. Living in a city that's been in a downward spiral for the last 60 years just wasn't appealing to me. I would have loved to stay and support Cleveland, however I didn't want to waste the next 30 years living with that constant "maybe next year things will get better" attitude. Things won't get better. Not in our lifetime. Look at the numbers, they are getting WORSE.

Don't let yourself be disillusioned that a city like Cleveland or Cincinnati is about to turn the corner. If you want to stay and help, then go for it! Some people are built that way, I wasn't. Personally I love living in a progressive and on the rise city.

But to me the biggest difference are the attitudes. I can't really put into words the attitude difference.  It's something you'll have to experience for yourself. There's not a day I look back and regret the move out west. You owe it to yourself to give it a try, you don't want to live the rest of your life thinking "what if".

To each his own! If it doesn't work out you can always move back!

What is the point of your post, exactly?  It's great that you're enjoying Seattle, but so what?  How does coming over to an Ohio forum and basically bashing Ohio doing anything productive?  We have enough people doing that already, we don't need people who ran away years ago coming back in here to do the same.  This IS a great state, but it has been the recipient of bad luck for a lot of years, decades even.  But honestly, it was not until the last 10 years that the major cities here bothered to do anything about it.  One bad leader after another, one economic failure after another... those days, for the most part, are behind us.  City cores ARE regaining population, and that will eventually spread.  You don't turn around 60 years of decentralization and population loss overnight, or even over the course of a decade.  This is not simply being rosy in the face of doom.  The census was not good, but it could have been so much worse considering how awful the economy has been nationally and in Ohio.  And the more information that comes out, to me, seems to indicate that change is not around the corner, but already happening.