Author Topic: US Economy: News & Discussion  (Read 306945 times)

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Offline KJP

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4095 on: November 16, 2012, 11:37:07 AM »

Twinkies maker Hostess going out of business
The liquidation of the company will mean that most of its 18,500 employees will lose their jobs, Hostess said on Friday.
http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=6d7b095e-e558-4dc4-83e9-1859d177e676&ocid=ansmony11


Screw Hostess and its Wall Street fraud-docs who are so eager to carve the company's organs for sale to the highest bidders.
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Offline Hts121

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4096 on: November 16, 2012, 01:25:06 PM »
Terrible news for cockroaches.  What will they eat in the event of a nuclear holocaust?
It does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are twenty gods or no God. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg - Thomas Jefferson

Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4097 on: November 16, 2012, 02:44:34 PM »
JPMorgan, Credit Suisse paying total $417M to settle SEC charges on sales of mortgage bonds
"WASHINGTON — JPMorgan Chase and Credit Suisse have agreed to pay a combined $417 million to settle federal civil charges of selling risky mortgage bonds to investors that the banks knew could fail ahead of the 2008 financial crisis."
http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/03411a2477f1415ba8fef9b1152c598b/US---JPMorgan-Credit-Suisse-Settlement
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Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4098 on: November 19, 2012, 11:18:21 AM »
Average US Credit Card Debt Per Borrower up in 3Q
"Americans cranked up their use of credit cards in the third quarter, racking up more debt than a year ago, while also being less diligent about making payments on time, an analysis of consumer-credit data shows.
The average credit card debt per borrower in the U.S. grew 4.9 percent in the July-to-September period from a year earlier to $4,996, credit reporting agency TransUnion said Monday."
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/average-us-credit-card-debt-borrower-3q-17757527#.UKnETIdfBmo


If Bernanke reduces the requirements for home loans this number will go through the roof.

Nov. builder sentiment hits six-plus-year peak
"The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose 5 points to a seasonally adjusted level of 46, the highest point since May 2006."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nov-builder-sentiment-hits-six-plus-year-peak-2012-11-19


US taxpayers bail out California homeowners, as banks fail to pay their share
"Contrary to what voters were led to believe, California took the unprecedented step this month to give banks and struggling homeowners up to $100,000 in taxpayer funds to reduce underwater mortgages.
Originally, banks and lenders were supposed to pay 50 percent of the cost of reducing the principal for those whose homes are worth less than their mortgage. But when the banks refused, California took the controversial step of paying the entire amount, up to $100,000."
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/20/us-taxpayers-bailout-california-homeowners-as-banks-fail-to-pay-their-share/#ixzz2CgbgzQE2


United Technologies laying off 500 workers, including 4 in Charlotte area
Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/11/16/3670382/united-technologies-laying-off.html#storylink=cpy


Medical giant Stryker cuts 1,170 jobs, citing ObamaCare
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/16/medical-supply-giant-stryker-corp-makes-pre-emptive-strike-against-pending/#ixzz2CgdTHNA1


Kaiser Permanente lays off 530 employees in Southern California
http://www.presstelegram.com/breakingnews/ci_22014897/kaiser-permanente-lays-off-530-employees-southern-california
« Last Edit: November 19, 2012, 11:28:48 AM by ragerunner »
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Offline unusualfire

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4099 on: November 19, 2012, 01:16:35 PM »
Are you nit picking job losses? I know for a fact some  companies are hiring even after Obama was elected.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2012, 01:17:20 PM by unusualfire »

Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4100 on: November 19, 2012, 01:23:09 PM »
Nope.
But I am listings major job losses. Since the first of September job losses has increase over the last year significantly and these losses will impact job numbers over the next several months. Most of these jobs are also higher paying not just Wal mart type retail jobs. Feel free to post job gains, most that I have seen lately are jobs that are expected to be created by X company over the next X amount of years. Not exactly locked in job growth.
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Offline Hts121

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4101 on: November 19, 2012, 03:57:04 PM »
Are you nit picking job losses?

This blog is really more about nit-picking sources of information
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Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4102 on: November 19, 2012, 07:03:31 PM »
Investment Falls Off a Cliff
U.S. Companies Cut Spending Plans Amid Fiscal and Economic Uncertainty
"U.S. companies are scaling back investment plans at the fastest pace since the recession, signaling more trouble for the economic recovery.
Half of the nation's 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders have announced plans to curtail capital expenditures this year or next, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of securities filings and conference calls.
Nationwide, business investment in equipment and software—a measure of economic vitality in the corporate sector—stalled in the third quarter for the first time since early 2009. Corporate investment in new buildings has declined."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324595904578123593211825394.html
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Offline KJP

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4103 on: November 20, 2012, 12:51:23 AM »
Terrible news for cockroaches.  What will they eat in the event of a nuclear holocaust?

Fast food. French fries will outlast everything.

Half of the nation's 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders have announced plans to curtail capital expenditures this year or next, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of securities filings and conference calls.

There's the wrinkle: "the 40 largest publicly traded companies." And what kinds of businesses create most new jobs?
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Offline gottaplan

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4104 on: November 20, 2012, 09:13:46 AM »
Are you nit picking job losses?

This blog is really more about nit-picking sources of information

We've been through this.  Some of you dislike the negative economic data presented by ragerunner, but can't or won't produce data indicating otherwise.

Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4105 on: November 20, 2012, 10:52:01 AM »
Terrible news for cockroaches.  What will they eat in the event of a nuclear holocaust?

Fast food. French fries will outlast everything.

Half of the nation's 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders have announced plans to curtail capital expenditures this year or next, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of securities filings and conference calls.

There's the wrinkle: "the 40 largest publicly traded companies." And what kinds of businesses create most new jobs?

Bad News for Small Business: VC Investments Decline
"Recently, we posted here about the growth in angel capital investments. Now, there’s some not-so-good news for small businesses about venture capital. The most recent MoneyTree survey from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the National Venture Capital Association reports that in the third quarter of 2012, VC investments shrunk both in terms of overall dollars (down by 11 percent from the second quarter of 2012) and in terms of deal volume (down by 5 percent from the second quarter of 2012)."
http://www.networksolutions.com/smallbusiness/2012/11/bad-news-for-small-business-vc-investments-decline/


Small Businesses Grow Wary, See Fewer Hires, Investments
"Confidence among U.S. small businesses cooled in September as fewer companies said they planned to hire or invest in new equipment, a survey found."
Read more: Small Businesses Grow Wary, See Fewer Hires, Investments
Important: Can you afford to Retire?
http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Small-Businesses-Hires-Investments/2012/10/09/id/459211
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Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4106 on: November 20, 2012, 10:55:39 AM »
Debt crisis: Eurozone remains split on Greek aid - live
"Eurogroup leader Jean-Claude Juncker and Finland raise doubts about reaching a deal on Greek aid as eurozone finance minister prepare to meet in Brussels later today."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9688943/Debt-crisis-Eurozone-remains-split-on-Greek-aid-live.html


France's rating downgrade a warning for banks
"PARIS, Nov 20 (Reuters) - French banks were reminded of risks to their own growth and credit ratings when Moody's stripped France of its triple-A badge because of an uncertain fiscal and economic outlook."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/france-moodys-banks-idUSL5E8MK3XI20121120

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Online StrapHanger

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4107 on: November 20, 2012, 11:09:16 AM »

We've been through this.  Some of you dislike the negative economic data presented by ragerunner, but can't or won't produce data indicating otherwise.

Oh FFS, I'll take the bait.  From 30 seconds of googling below is a sampling from the past three days. Obviously the fiscal cliff is a major wildcard, and things are still messy, but the high doom and gloom ratio here is the very definition of cherry-picked.

Housing Market Posts Gains
Sales of Previously Owned Homes Rose in October; Supply of Properties Shrinks

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324307204578128900029337018.html

California posts strong job gains as employers add 45,800 workers
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/17/business/la-fi-california-jobs-20121117

GDP Accelerating to 2.9% Helping U.S. Overcome Sandy Woes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-19/gdp-accelerating-to-2-9-helping-u-s-overcome-sandy-budg.html
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Offline gottaplan

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4108 on: November 20, 2012, 11:20:51 AM »
Great.  Keep it up.  I like reading good news.

Offline KJP

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4109 on: November 20, 2012, 11:32:33 AM »
I like getting good news. Seems to me that the national news believes its viewers want more doomer porn. So I don't give them my ratings. I do watch BBC-America and Bloomberg however.
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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4110 on: November 20, 2012, 11:34:22 AM »
Great.  Keep it up.  I like reading good news.

Doh! I think it's impossible to comprehensively keep up with all the economy news, so I'm not going to try.  I like this thread when people discuss broader issues and real, verifiable trends and stuff, I just don't really see the point of posting every layoff notice [or plant opening] or dour forecast [or optimistic projection]. That's no knock on anyone- people should feel free to post what they think is significant, but if some of us have a different opinion, it doesn't mean we have our head in the sand.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2012, 11:34:54 AM by StrapHanger »
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Offline Gramarye

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4111 on: November 20, 2012, 11:37:21 AM »
When I talked to a realtor this past Sunday who represents a number of Freddie Mac-owned homes (including the one we were looking at, which is one reason I was soliciting renovation advice in another thread), he told me that the turnaround time on offers is now usually days, whereas it used to be weeks, because the inventory has thinned greatly.

Offline gottaplan

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4112 on: November 20, 2012, 11:43:17 AM »
Great.  Keep it up.  I like reading good news.

Doh! I think it's impossible to comprehensively keep up with all the economy news, so I'm not going to try.  I like this thread when people discuss broader issues and real, verifiable trends and stuff,

Let me take a stab at this to get the conversation restarted...

Americans, for the most part, have made sizeable gains in personal wealth through 401k's, IRA's, and other investments in the market, and in home equity gains.  Those two sources have recovered somewhat since the crash, but not enough to really put people back to where they were.  Maybe the housing bubble was something that never should've happened and Wall Street fatcats created it to benefit themselves, but reality is many a common man benefitted from it, whether they were a homeowner, a general contractor, or a mortgage/real estate agent.

The housing market is recovering but so many people got swept up in mortgage loans and delinquency, it will still be several years before any of those people consider owning a home again or finding a bank to approve them.  So while the housing market may be recovering, I don't think you'll see much increase in the rate of home ownership.  Too many young people are staying in the rental market because they don't have the income or down payment to buy, or they don't want the long term commitment of being in one location for 5+ years.

Much of the posts from ragerunner focus on what's happening on Wall Street, specifically large companies, hiring, laying off, posting profits, etc.  While most of us could care less, these things are a barometer for what's happening in the big picture.  The market is struggling right now and that does affect people's investments.  If the market were to shoot up to 14,000 in the next 2 years, you'd see more people retiring, buying second homes, taking vacations, reinvesting in businesses, etc.  That's a good thing.  So its worth cheering for even if it means Bain Capital types also post record profits.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2012, 11:46:34 AM by gottaplan »

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4113 on: November 20, 2012, 12:35:19 PM »
^What exactly is the news posted here a barometer of? I think that's kind of the point some of us have been trying to make. It's not that I don't care about people being laid off, I just don't know if something so anecdotal adds much to the US Economy thread. As for the rest of your post...I'm not sure I understand if it was directed at any particular view or poster.  I'd be thrilled if the stock market shot up and of course housing wealth lost has been devastating for a majority of US households. I have concerns about inequality (focused primarily on the lower end of the spectrum), and I have concerns about management compensation structures that rip off shareholders, and, through TBTF financial institutions, arguably put us all at risk, but I don't otherwise begrudge people for making a lot of money.

I do find it personally annoying when people making 8 digits in the financial sector equate their success with other measures of human value, but that's a different issue (a non Mitt-related issue).
« Last Edit: November 20, 2012, 12:36:12 PM by StrapHanger »
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Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4114 on: November 20, 2012, 01:24:57 PM »

We've been through this.  Some of you dislike the negative economic data presented by ragerunner, but can't or won't produce data indicating otherwise.

Oh FFS, I'll take the bait.  From 30 seconds of googling below is a sampling from the past three days. Obviously the fiscal cliff is a major wildcard, and things are still messy, but the high doom and gloom ratio here is the very definition of cherry-picked.

Housing Market Posts Gains
Sales of Previously Owned Homes Rose in October; Supply of Properties Shrinks

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324307204578128900029337018.html

California posts strong job gains as employers add 45,800 workers
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/17/business/la-fi-california-jobs-20121117

GDP Accelerating to 2.9% Helping U.S. Overcome Sandy Woes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-19/gdp-accelerating-to-2-9-helping-u-s-overcome-sandy-budg.html

Thanks for the post. But I have already posted on most of those items. I always post about GDP and I have dozens of post about the growth in housing and home prices. What I didn't post is the California job increase, which I didn't see. Good find.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2012, 01:27:51 PM by ragerunner »
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Offline GCrites80s

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4115 on: November 20, 2012, 01:32:31 PM »
What's going on with these big public companies is that they want to, and have been, building up major cash reserves because they've been scared since the bubble burst. They also want those big cash reserves to be attractive to prospective bondholders and, to a lesser degree, prospective equity buyers. If that takes firing people, fine by them.

Offline C-Dawg

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4116 on: November 20, 2012, 04:04:35 PM »

Twinkies maker Hostess going out of business
The liquidation of the company will mean that most of its 18,500 employees will lose their jobs, Hostess said on Friday.
http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=6d7b095e-e558-4dc4-83e9-1859d177e676&ocid=ansmony11


Screw Hostess and its Wall Street fraud-docs who are so eager to carve the company's organs for sale to the highest bidders.

From what I gather, Hostess was jacking executive pay while cutting its workers (obviously pretty common these days). A lot of people got out with golden parachutes. I'm not surprised the union striked. Who would be happy working for guys who come in for a few years to get rich quick and jump ship?

BCTGM members are well aware that as the company was preparing to file for bankruptcy earlier this year, the then CEO of Hostess was awarded a 300 percent raise (from approximately $750,000 to $2,550,000) and at least nine other top executives of the company received massive pay raises. One such executive received a pay increase from $500,000 to $900,000 and another received one taking his salary from $375,000 to $656,256.

http://ragingbull.quote.com/mboard/viewreplies.cgi?board=GOV&reply=2619860
« Last Edit: November 20, 2012, 04:06:04 PM by C-Dawg »

Offline Gramarye

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4117 on: November 20, 2012, 04:44:57 PM »
That news has been popularized, but it isn't the whole story.

For one thing, the CEO (Driscoll) that tripled his own pay was forced out.  The new CEO (Greg Rayburn) agreed to take a salary of $1 through December 31, along with the three other top executives.  Other executives who got substantial pre-bankruptcy pay increases saw the pay increases rescinded (they didn't go down to $1, but went back to their old pay).

Of course, Rayburn is also a partner in a restructuring firm retained by Hostess and his firm continues to get paid something like $120,000 per month, though Rayburn's personal cut of that is much less because his firm has other personnel and operating costs that those payments go to defray.

All the finger-pointing between unions and management is somewhat secondary in this case, though, IMHO.  Hostess simply did not adapt to the changing market.  The market for empty calories simply isn't what it used to be, and Hostess' Nature's Pride breads were a milquetoast foray into healthier fare.  (The Pepperidge Farm product line is much more impressive, IMHO.)

Note that Hostess is not exactly completely alone among struggling sugary snack food companies.  Philadelphia-based Tastykake was sold in 2011.  Keebler is not the cash cow for Kraft (its parent company) that it used to be.  Tastykake was smaller, though, so it wasn't as prohibitively expensive for another less-well-known company to acquire it as a going concern.  And Keebler is part of the Kraft empire, so even if it doesn't have much product category diversity itself, it's part of a conglomerate that does.  Hostess was a one-trick pony and consumers were no longer impressed with the trick.  Even if the executives had worked for minimum wage and the workers had all worked for free, the company was going nowhere unless it updated its product lines.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2012, 04:45:52 PM by Gramarye »

Offline gottaplan

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4118 on: November 20, 2012, 05:02:11 PM »
$2.5 million salary to run a company the size of Hostess is nothing.  These are pennies when you consider what the impact of 18,500 hourly workers' wages impact is. 

Figure a $0.50 cent/hr wage increase for employees across the board... x 52 weeks x 18,500 employees... and you're over $19 million....   

Anyone want to restate what the union was asking for when they went on strike and compare that to the bottom line of $2 -$3 million in executive salaries?  Even better question, everyone admits the company was mismanaged for years, maybe they should've hiked the executive salary years ago to bring in some better management???

Offline unusualfire

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4119 on: November 20, 2012, 05:05:15 PM »
I think everything would function much better with employee owned businesses. shareholders and board members have too much power. Yes I know they own the business, but the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4120 on: November 20, 2012, 05:19:30 PM »
You mean we have some underlining structural economic issues that have not been solved with bailouts and QE dumps and are creating challenges to growth?!! What a shock.

Economy has lost some fundamental pop: Bernanke
"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The financial crisis appears to have lowered how quickly the economy can grow in the long term, Fed Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.
Before the crisis hit, the growth rate of potential output was about 2.5%. But evidence indicates that the crisis has cut that rate, Bernanke said Tuesday in a speech at the New York Economic Club."
"Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., said the Congressional Budget Office estimates that potential growth is near 1.6%."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-has-lost-some-fundamental-pop-bernanke-2012-11-20


SEC alleges largest-ever insider-trading scheme
CR Intrinsic Investors is owned by Steven A. Cohen’s firm
"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A hedge-fund manager and a doctor are at the heart of what securities regulators said Tuesday may be the largest insider-trading scheme ever pursued, a case that now has implicated one of the highest-profile investors on Wall Street."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-alleges-largest-ever-insider-trading-scheme-2012-11-20?dist=afterbell 
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Offline C-Dawg

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4121 on: November 20, 2012, 06:57:19 PM »
Hostess simply did not adapt to the changing market.  The market for empty calories simply isn't what it used to be

True. Kellogg's and General Mills have run into this too with their "dessert cereals."

Offline Loretto

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4122 on: November 20, 2012, 07:23:19 PM »
I hope Twinkies and some of the other brands can eventually be resold to someone 2-3 owners from now for so cheap that they can feel free to do whatever they want with the brand. Too much downward pressure on a company like Hostess.

Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4123 on: November 21, 2012, 11:22:57 AM »
The revisions to the data produced just before the election are starting to come in. Of note consumer sentiment actually only rose .1, in other words their was no noticable rise in consumer sentiment. But it made for great headlines. NOTE: This is not a political statement. If a republican president had been in office the same would have happened and has in the past. What is interesting about this number is it usually is not revised much in either direction.

U.S. initial jobless claims drop to 410,000
Filings remain elevated as Northeast grapples with Sandy fallout
"Applications for jobless benefits soared in the prior week as the deadly late-season superstorm slammed into the Northeast. Claims rose a revised 90,000 to 451,000 in the prior week, up from the initial estimate of a 78,000 increase to 439,000."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-initial-jobless-claims-drop-to-410000-2012-11-21?dist=lcountdown


Final UMich sentiment reading revised lower
"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment in November gained slightly to a reading of 82.7 but wasn't as strong as initially estimated, the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters said Wednesday. Initially, they had reported a reading of 84.9 in November from a final October reading of 82.6. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a downward adjustment to 84.0."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/final-umich-sentiment-reading-revised-lower-2012-11-21?dist=lcountdown
« Last Edit: November 23, 2012, 11:23:50 AM by ragerunner »
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Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4124 on: November 23, 2012, 02:00:27 PM »
Looks like Argentina may have taken a few pointers from Iceland.

Argentina at risk of default after US court ruling on debt
"Argentina is at risk of defaulting on $24bn (£15bn) of debt after hedge funds were awarded more than $1.3bn by a US court, a move which its economy minister called “legal colonialism”.
“All we need now is for [Judge Thomas] Griesa to send us the Fifth Fleet,” said Hernán Lorenzino, Agentina's economy minister.
However, New York District Court Judge Grisa was firm. “Argentina owes this and owes it now,” he said. “After 10 years of litigation this is a just result.”
A deadline for payment was set for December 15.
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Argentina’s outspoken president, had vowed that the government will not pay “one dollar” to the funds. Payment could divert money from other bondholders, tipping the nation into a technical default."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9697724/Argentina-at-risk-of-default-after-US-court-ruling-on-debt.html


EU summit: budget talks collapse as David Cameron says 'non' to Brussels
Talks on a new European Union budget have collapsed as David Cameron accused Brussels of 'living in a parallel universe' and said there could not be a 'deal at any cost.'
"Talks on a new European Union budget have collapsed after David Cameron won German support in a row with France about his demands for more cuts in spending.
The Prime Minister accused Brussels of 'living in a parallel universe' and said there could not be a 'deal at any cost.'
Speaking at the end of the failed summit Mr Cameron said: "We're not going to be tough on budgets at home just to come here and sign up to an increase."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9699264/EU-summit-budget-talks-collapse-as-David-Cameron-says-non-to-Brussels.html
« Last Edit: November 23, 2012, 02:03:38 PM by ragerunner »
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Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4125 on: November 26, 2012, 11:12:26 AM »
Morgan Stanley’s Doom Scenario: Major Recession in 2013
"The global economy is likely to be stuck in the “twilight zone” of sluggish growth in 2013, Morgan Stanley has warned, but if policymakers fail to act, it could get a lot worse."
"The bank’s economics team forecasts a full-blown recession next year, under a pessimistic scenario, with global gross domestic product (GDP) likely to plunge 2 percent."
"Morgan Stanley isn’t alone in warning about a recession next year. Noted bear, Nouriel Roubini warned on Monday that certain key developments would exacerbate the downside risks to global growth in 2013.
“Until now, the recessionary fiscal drag has been concentrated in the euro zone periphery and the U.K.. But now it is permeating the euro zone’s core,” Roubini wrote. “And in the U.S., even if President Barack Obama and the Republicans in Congress agree on a budget plan that avoids the looming “fiscal cliff,” spending cuts and tax increases will invariably lead to some drag on growth in 2013 – at least 1 percent of GDP.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49898014



Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
"Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened in November. The general business activity index fell to minus 2.8 from plus 1.8 in October, returning to negative territory. The company outlook index moved down to minus 4.8 in November from plus 2.4 in October, registering its first negative reading since April.
Labor market indicators were mixed. The employment index edged up to 6.7 in November, with more than 20 percent of firms reporting hiring compared with 15 percent reporting layoffs. The hours worked index dipped from minus 5.9 to minus 7.1.
Indexes reflecting future business conditions fell sharply in November. The index of future general business activity plunged from 16.8 to minus 5.3, its lowest reading in four months. The index of future company outlook dropped from 20.9 to 1.8. Indexes for future manufacturing activity also fell this month but remained positive."
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451659&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2012&lid=0
« Last Edit: November 26, 2012, 12:10:59 PM by ragerunner »
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Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4126 on: November 26, 2012, 12:36:18 PM »
The Housing Recovery Is Getting Real
"Home builders up 2 percent on strong housing starts data. October housing starts at 894,000, the highest level since July 2008.
Single-family home starts were basically flat, but there was a big increase in multifamily home starts.
Bottom line: The housing recovery is real, and housing starts are approaching the psychologically important 1 million level. This is far below the record of 2.2 million set in 2006, but those were unrealistic levels — the 10-year average is close to 1.2 million units."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49900307

Credit Card debt is rising and HELOC's are back to 2008 levels. This type of debt increase worked out so well last time. Why not try it again?!!!

Home Equity Loans Make Comeback Fueling U.S. Spending
"Home equity lines of credit that fueled a spending spree during the U.S. property boom are back.
After six years of declines, lending for so-called Helocs will rise 30 percent to $79.6 billion in 2012, the highest level since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, according to the economics research unit of Moody’s Corp. Originations next year will jump another 31 percent to $104 billion, it projected."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-26/home-equity-loans-make-comeback-fueling-u-s-spending-mortgages.html


What is all that new credit card debt and HELOC fueling? The crazy game of debt equals growth surges again.

Retailers hail holiday shopping weekend as best ever
"The biggest holiday shopping weekend of the season still has one day left, but retailers can already consider it their best yet.
More shoppers came out Thanksgiving night, more shoppers hit stores on Black Friday, more shopped online and everyone spent more. The result: more than $59 billion in estimated sales from Thursday through Sunday, according to a BIGInsight survey conducted for the National Retail Federation.
That's up from $52.4 billion last year. And all signs point to a huge Cyber Monday, as more consumers turned to their computers or mobile devices to shop during the weekend."
http://www.freep.com/article/20121126/BUSINESS07/121126018/Retailers-hail-holiday-shopping-weekend-as-best-ever
« Last Edit: November 26, 2012, 01:00:05 PM by ragerunner »
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Offline Quimbob

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4127 on: November 28, 2012, 04:26:29 PM »
over in Indiana, the Hillenbrand company is diversifying, leaving Batesville casket a smaller & smaller piece of their revenue pie. Burials are down as cremation becomes more & more popular.
"Batesville, which manufactures caskets, burial vaults, and urns, has been the company’s main source of revenue and operating earnings for years.
But Hillenbrand has been diversifying its business model, primarily through acquisitions, and Batesville is becoming a smaller piece of the pie."

http://connectingdirectors.com/articles/37355-could-batesville-be-for-sale-soon
and
http://connectingdirectors.com/articles/37351-hillenbrand-moving-away-from-batesville-casket-cash
Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats. - H. L. Mencken

Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4128 on: November 28, 2012, 04:57:27 PM »
Here is the latest revised down data, now that the elections are over. September's numbers were revised down noticably as well.

Sales of new homes decline 0.3% in October
"The sales pace in September was revised down to 369,000 from a prior estimate of 389,000. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected new-home sales in October to remain steady at a rate of 390,000 on more demand and lean inventories. The median sales price in October declined 4.2% to $237,700, and is up 5.7% from October 2011. The supply of new homes increased to 4.8 months at October's sales rate from 4.7 months in September."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sales-of-new-homes-decline-03-in-october-2012-11-28?link=MW_story_latest_news


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-28/surprise-right-after-election-new-home-sales-tumble-downward-revised-two-year-high
« Last Edit: November 28, 2012, 05:08:18 PM by ragerunner »
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Offline ragerunner

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Re: US Economy: News & Discussion
« Reply #4129 on: November 30, 2012, 12:10:14 PM »
U.S. consumer spending drops in October
Incomes flat as Hurricane Sandy disrupts work routines
"If the effects of Sandy are discounted, however, the government’s spending and incomes report was still disappointing, especially after September’s strong gains, economists say."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-personal-spending-drops-in-october-2012-11-30


More stuff sitting in the warehouse, consumer spending is starting to drop, business investment is falling and income growth was revised downward. The strength, people are buying houses? The first four items on the list do not support long term housing growth. So something will have to give, one way or the other. Its a good thing the taxpayer is back stopping interest rates and home loans or the economy would be well in negative GDP territory. Look for Bernanke to make good on his comment, the other day, about trying to loosen home loan standards to increase home sales or future GDPs are not going to look so good.

GDP Pushed Up — Yet Look Closer
"The latest figures on third-quarter economic growth are best described by a cliché: The devil is in the details.
Gross domestic product accelerated to a 2.7 percent annual rate, revised upward from a 2 percent pace previously reported by the Commerce Department and well above the 1.3 percent gain in the second quarter of 2012."
"A closer look at the report shows consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, was revised downward to a 1.4 percent pace, the slowest in more than a year. Moreover, a big chunk of the pickup in growth came from a stronger-than-projected buildup of inventories, which poses a potential headwind for this quarter."
"Wage gains also were revised downward for the past two quarters, helping explain why American consumers may have restrained purchases and hardly encouraging for the outlook in coming months unless the labor market begins to show faster Among the other not-so-rosy details, business investment in equipment and software fell instead of being unchanged last quarter, the GDP revisions showed. And while exports expanded, the pace was the weakest in three years. That leaves housing as the one silver lining: growth in residential investment almost matched the previous estimate."
http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2012-11-29/gdp-pushed-up-yet-look-closer/
« Last Edit: November 30, 2012, 01:12:48 PM by ragerunner »
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